Ji Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 1:57 AM, nj2va said: Yay, more long range 500 maps to track Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 2:09 AM, Ji said: On 12/20/2022 at 1:57 AM, nj2va said: Yay, more long range 500 maps to track Expand Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban Expand That’s actually a good idea. Especially if it’s an OP run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 1:49 AM, cbmclean said: What else is there to do? We wait and watch. Expand Exactly, it’s not even Christmas lol. Waiting til January for snow is standard operating procedure around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 2:09 AM, Ji said: On 12/20/2022 at 1:57 AM, nj2va said: Yay, more long range 500 maps to track Expand Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban Expand Heck a week out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 12:43 AM, Rhino16 said: Maybe shenanigans too… but it’s used more than kerfuffle and malarkey. Expand Those are right up there with catawampus - as it seems the models are all over the place these days; askew with our collective appetite for a BECS or HECS... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 3:51 AM, RDM said: Those are right up there with catawampus - as it seems the models are all over the place these days; askew with our collective appetite for a BECS or HECS... Expand All of this hullabaloo has gotten me feeling quite discombobulated. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:19 AM, Buddy1987 said: Can we ACTUALLY get lucky at HR162 according to the GFS? Light snow developing across western zones. Not getting sucked into this one but merely keeping an eye. Expand Looks like a clipper. But someone told me they’d gone extinct in recent years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:20 AM, Terpeast said: Looks like a clipper. But someone told me they’d gone extinct in recent years. Expand CMC has it moving thru TX. ICON has it diving almost due South out of Lake Superior. Minor differences got me flabbergasted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:20 AM, Terpeast said: Looks like a clipper. But someone told me they’d gone extinct in recent years. Expand To be fair we haven't had one since 2015, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hmm interesting changes. Noticed the 18z EPS/control strengthened this same clipper but didn’t say anything. Needs a little spacing improvement but could be something to track…. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 No one look at the Cmc at 204 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:39 AM, TSSN+ said: No one look at the Cmc at 204 lol Expand Where do I sign for that? What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:39 AM, TSSN+ said: No one look at the Cmc at 204 lol Expand Ok 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:40 AM, nj2va said: Where do I sign for that? What could go wrong? Expand You know the clipper keeps getting stronger each run. Who knows maybe we cash in somehow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:39 AM, TSSN+ said: No one look at the Cmc at 204 lol Walt drag, my favorite Met, always says you always want the CMC on your side if a storm threat is real. I don’t have it out that far, but H5 did look decent. In general (based off GFS) We need slightly better spacing/separation in SE Canada, stronger S/W will help too. The PAC flow is racing E so it’s going to try to stop anything from developing, but not a horrible look. My fantasy team just got knocked out of finals because of Rodgers TD so I’ll take something to track right now to make my life meaningful haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:40 AM, nj2va said: Where do I sign for that? What could go wrong? Expand A broken clock is right twice a day, too bad the Canadian isn’t a clock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 2:09 AM, Ji said: On 12/20/2022 at 1:57 AM, nj2va said: Yay, more long range 500 maps to track Expand Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban Expand This is p funny coming from the dude who has a shit fit on the reg when a 15 day op run doesn't show blue in your yard. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:51 AM, Solution Man said: A broken clock is right twice a day, too bad the Canadian isn’t a clock Expand It beat the GFS for this cutter so… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 5:00 AM, TSSN+ said: It beat the GFS for this cutter so… Expand On 12/20/2022 at 5:00 AM, TSSN+ said: It beat the GFS for this cutter so… Expand Maybe it’s a broken clock, would love for it’s depiction to be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GEFS sniffing it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 5:29 AM, Heisy said: GEFS sniffing it . Expand That dog will hunt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Progressive flow and the position/orientation of the upstream ridge are key factors influencing the ability of the shortwave to gain latitude before heading off the coast. CMC gets it done by having the ridge axis further west at the point the shortwave drops down. Another factor is the position and strength of the northern stream vortex over eastern Canada- it's stronger and digs further south on the Euro/EPS with a more amplified ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looking more likely we won't be able to wear jorts and a wife beater on new years day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 "The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ." From last Friday's CPC forecast. While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:05 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: All of this hullabaloo has gotten me feeling quite discombobulated. Expand Indubitably!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 11:38 AM, leesburg 04 said: Looking more likely we won't be able to wear jorts and a wife beater on new years day Expand Technically speaking, you still can. Vikings win the Super Bowl and I’ll wear that to work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 1:44 PM, dallen7908 said: "The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ." From last Friday's CPC forecast. While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too? Expand Look at whatever shows what you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 6:14 AM, DE2PA said: That dog will hunt Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GGEM has the coastal next week… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 4:56 PM, WxUSAF said: GGEM has the coastal next week… Expand Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it. Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week. Thats good enough for me at the present time. From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. " > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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