January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[J.Mike]

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

Remember that well!
Lots of damaging wind gusts too.

Seems like the best and most memorable events catch us by surprise.

I remember, tore apart my beautiful smoke tree in the front yard.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Remember that well!
Lots of damaging wind gusts too.

Seems like the best and most memorable events catch us by surprise.

I remember it well, too, obviously. I was in Vienna at the time, and I was coming back home from swim practice in torrential rain. My mom was driving and she was white knuckling it the whole way because we could hardly anything in front of us. Then just as we got home, it changed over to snow and a brief blizzard of thundersnow ensued. We would see purple flashes of lightning through the snow.

My cousin, who was staying with us at the time, and I jebwalked through it... it was awesome.

The most memorable 2 inches I've ever seen in my life. 

P.S. after that event, the entire month of December totally sucked donkey balls... by the end of the month I was whining "it never snows here anymore". Then we all know what happened a week after that.

[peribonca]

3 hours ago, peribonca said:

With how far west everything has trended this week the Dec 27 "event" on the 6z GFS looks like it's in a good spot

Watch the 12z GFS lining things up at 180

[stormtracker]

What is this on the GFS around 180?  

Ninja'd

[stormtracker]

Prob some phantom s/w that'll be gone next run, but throws a little scrap on the pile.  Interesting, but not gonna do much

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, peribonca said:

Watch the 12z GFS lining things up at 180

That’s its money range 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

Did that storm start as warm rain and then quickly change over to heavy snow in a few hours? 

I remember playing a soccer game that day and it was like 65 degrees, then that evening we got a couple inches of snow. 

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob some phantom s/w that'll be gone next run, but throws a little scrap on the pile.  Interesting, but not gonna do much

It’s been there as a minority opinion on various ensemble’s over the last few days. It finally popped up on an operational. Maybe by chance. But it’s a subtle enough feature that its the kind of thing guidance will often miss until shorter leads.  But we don’t necessarily need a dynamic h5 feature to get a decent snow if the setup is right.  It likely doesn’t have huge upside but they sometimes turn into nice events which seem to be extinct lately.  But definitely a long shot, as anything is at that range  

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I remember it well, too, obviously. I was in Vienna at the time, and I was coming back home from swim practice in torrential rain. My mom was driving and she was white knuckling it the whole way because we could hardly anything in front of us. Then just as we got home, it changed over to snow and a brief blizzard of thundersnow ensued. We would see purple flashes of lightning through the snow.

My cousin, who was staying with us at the time, and I jebwalked through it... it was awesome.

The most memorable 2 inches I've ever seen in my life. 

P.S. after that event, the entire month of December totally sucked donkey balls... by the end of the month I was whining "it never snows here anymore". Then we all know what happened a week after that.

If you’re talking about Dec 1995 luckily for me that was a year before I started really getting into looking at guidance and so most of my info was local. Knowing what I know now Dec 95 would have been torture as places just north of us got like 25” that month but as it was we did get a few 1-2” snows where I was in northern VA that weren’t really expected so I was happy.  Had I known what I was missing…ignorance can be bliss. 

[aldie 22]

GFS op mutes the warmup as well into January

[psuhoffman]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

GFS op mutes the warmup as well into January

There is a path. But I’m not over reacting to one run of anything. But…if the pac jet extension isn’t quite as emphatic or relaxes a bit quicker…most of the rest of the larger longwave drivers are similar. It’s just the Aleutian low pushes too Far East and floods pac puke and that along with the flaws we already have (TNH WAR) takes a workable pattern and makes it lights out for a while. But adjust the pac a little and it becomes workable again.
 

We are probably going to fight the TNH/WAR all winter. But there are ways to overcome. We have had 50/50s several times in the last couple weeks. But they’re going to be transient. But each gives us a 24-48 hour window. Keep that up and eventually you get lucky with timing.  Also as we get later in winter the colder overall profile combined with shorter wavelengths works to make the pattern we’ve been in less hostile. 
 

I would prefer if we stay in the general look we’ve had and take our chances than roll the dice with a total breakdown and reshuffle which could lead to a much worse look. I’m of the mind that if we play around with a severely negative EPO/AO/NAO long enough we should end to with at least a respectable amount of snow by the time it’s all said and done. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

This is a problem and happens long before any change back to a favorable pattern. I'm pro snow and pro cold but this firehose is going to take til Jan 8 or longer to recover from imho. Like psu said tho, maybe we can mute this look some as it nears.

[CAPE]

Canadian ens has been pretty consistent with a signal for a modest wave tracking under us around the 27-28th. GEFS has had it too at times over the past few days.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ya know, analogs that refer to winters that sucked here are always annoy me, lol Mercy

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya know, analogs that refer to winters that sucked here are always annoy me, lol

That's sheer depression setting in...

[IronTy]

I'm ready for spring at this point anyway.  

[HighStakes]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya know, analogs that refer to winters that sucked here are always annoy me, lol Mercy

By no means was that a good winter but it certainly wasn't the worst. Knowing what we know now considering how difficult it seems to get snow, some of us may sign up for that winter again. As usual it was much better for N and W. December was cold and we missed on a couple chances. There was a decent event on the 19th Of December or thereabouts that produced 2-5 inches and it was a true anafront set-up. Another small system in earlyish January produced 1-3 inches. Suburbs got 4-8 from a decent storm the 3rd week of January. February was bad but we just missed on an early February storm where temps were just a touch too warm but I still got 2-3 living in Reisterstown at the time. Westminster/Manchester got 4-7. Then there was a moderate event 3rd week of February that produced 3-6 and it was a cold storm too for later in the season. Won't mention March for obvious reasons.

[mappy]

18 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm ready for spring at this point anyway.  

okay, see ya in spring then. 

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

okay, see ya in spring then. 

I'll stick around, at least to track the SE ridge.  If I see that show up in the 10-15 at least I know it's a lock.  Like using a game genie on Nintendo.  

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

By no means was that a good winter but it certainly wasn't the worst. Knowing what we know now considering how difficult it seems to get snow, some of us may sign up for that winter again. As usual it was much better for N and W. December was cold and we missed on a couple chances. There was a decent event on the 19th Of December or thereabouts that produced 2-5 inches and it was a true anafront set-up. Another small system in earlyish January produced 1-3 inches. Suburbs got 4-8 from a decent storm the 3rd week of January. February was bad but we just missed on an early February storm where temps were just a touch too warm but I still got 2-3 living in Reisterstown at the time. Westminster/Manchester got 4-7. Then there was a moderate event 3rd week of February that produced 3-6 and it was a cold storm too for later in the season. Won't mention March for obvious reasons.

Yeah the only thing I know from that winter is March, lol (I know it anecdotally--don't quite remember it, thankfully)

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll stick around, at least to track the SE ridge.  If I see that show up in the 10-15 at least I know it's a lock.  Like using a game genie on Nintendo.  

cool. ill make a spring thread for you so you can post there about it instead of here

[WeatherShak]

There is a path. But I’m not over reacting to one run of anything. But…if the pac jet extension isn’t quite as emphatic or relaxes a bit quicker…most of the rest of the larger longwave drivers are similar. It’s just the Aleutian low pushes too Far East and floods pac puke and that along with the flaws we already have (TNH WAR) takes a workable pattern and makes it lights out for a while. But adjust the pac a little and it becomes workable again.
 
We are probably going to fight the TNH/WAR all winter. But there are ways to overcome. We have had 50/50s several times in the last couple weeks. But they’re going to be transient. But each gives us a 24-48 hour window. Keep that up and eventually you get lucky with timing.  Also as we get later in winter the colder overall profile combined with shorter wavelengths works to make the pattern we’ve been in less hostile. 
 
I would prefer if we stay in the general look we’ve had and take our chances than roll the dice with a total breakdown and reshuffle which could lead to a much worse look. I’m of the mind that if we play around with a severely negative EPO/AO/NAO long enough we should end to with at least a respectable amount of snow by the time it’s all said and done. 

.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Canadian ens has been pretty consistent with a signal for a modest wave tracking under us around the 27-28th. GEFS has had it too at times over the past few days.

All 3 ops have a pretty healthy shortwave. Just can’t slow down and turn the corner.

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

cool. ill make a spring thread for you so you can post there about it instead of here

It's a common insomniac tactic.  The harder you chase sleep, the more elusive it is.  If on the other hand you try to stay awake you often end up falling asleep.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 ops have a pretty healthy shortwave. Just can’t slow down and turn the corner.

Yeah it's a progressive look, and with the western ridge shifting east and breaking overtop as advertised it would be tough.

[Ralph Wiggum]

55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya know, analogs that refer to winters that sucked here are always annoy me, lol Mercy

What a great winter that was.....pfffft. The kick in the nuts was when we thought we could salvage the tail end of the season with one storm in early March. Shut Philly down, called in the national guard, and we ended with a quarter inch of sleet. Please....for the love of everything sacred in this world....never again. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

What is this on the GFS around 180?  

Ninja'd

Don't do it Randy, don't succumb. We know it's about to enter the shred zone. 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

.

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

But isn't he usually biased cold? Siberia and all that? Lol

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But isn't he usually biased cold? Siberia and all that? Lol

Whatever gets people to read his blog. 

Ofc Siberia is anomalously 'warm' with a massive upper ridge in the WPO/EPO space. That feature is key for getting the air from up there to transfer down into the midlatitudes- the incoming anomalous cold. That ridge will be trending weaker over the next week or so, to be replaced by a TPV, so Siberia will actually be getting colder into early Jan. His choice of words plus that specific map implies something different.