DarkSharkWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GEFS has the signal around 27th now 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Can we all just dump a bunch of ice cubes in the North Atlantic to help reduce the WAR? Somebody needs to break loose an ice shelf from Greenland and tow it down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GEFS has the signal around 27th nowHard pass 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: GEFS has the signal around 27th now Hard pass So only interesting thing to come out of Dec 2022 is basically one big cold front passage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 06 NAM is pulling this thing way back west compared to 00. Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 lol complete joke sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 That backside gets pumping. That could be fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 WB 6z GFS…cool temperature drop Friday afternoon….(take what we can get) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast you’re right that the pna ridge a bit too far west and associated WAR is a problem. But the answer isn’t “let’s lose everything else we also need for a snowstorm” like the NAO/AO and Aleutian low. There was more right than wrong with the longwave pattern. Blowing it all up seems unlikely to result in getting us closer to right. I’d prefer to root for the subtle changes we need in the pna and western Atlantic and not lose the good stuff. ETA: the problem with “let’s reshuffle the deck” is there are lots of combinations and like 90% of them don’t work. It’s unlikely any reshuffle results in a better look when you had a decent longwave configuration and just needed a slight adjustment. The reality is that the pattern will reshuffle some and we will end up with whatever we get lol. Hoping for 'tweaks' of the current pattern is probably just as unlikely to yield better outcomes. Are we suddenly going to get a persistent vortex near the Canadian Maritimes under the NAO ridge instead of heights building there and developing a full lat ridge whenever a trough approaches? That would be a nice adjustment of the current pattern but not sure that's realistic either. Whatever transpires, one thing we will have in our favor going forward is better climo. Lets just hope the Pacific doesn't go to crap in conjunction with the AO going super positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, DE2PA said: That backside gets pumping. That could be fun. 100 bucks that doesn’t come close to happening. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100 bucks that doesn’t come close to happening. But there is always ample moisture available after a frontal passage… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Latest GEFSx gets us to this look moving into the second week of Jan. Based off the 0z GEFS run from yesterday that goes out to Jan 3. Should this progression transpire, mid to late Jan should be colder than normal, coinciding with near peak climo for cold/snow. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 100 bucks that doesn’t come close to happening.#FROPA’D . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100 bucks that doesn’t come close to happening. Not sure why you doubt anafront snows. We do extremely well in that setup. It's our wheelhouse. Buckle up buddy 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 In all seriousness, has there ever been a significant post frontal snow here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, has there ever been a significant post frontal snow here? November 1995. It was THAT long ago. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: November 1995. It was THAT long ago. See my post in the other thread. Significant snow not so much but many examples of quick hitters behind fronts. More so N and W but still cities on south saw a change and accumulation. I listed a few dates but there are actually several others I didn't mention. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: November 1995. It was THAT long ago. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, has there ever been a significant post frontal snow here? Not many but the GFS loves to advertise it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 With how far west everything has trended this week the Dec 27 "event" on the 6z GFS looks like it's in a good spot ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, has there ever been a significant post frontal snow here? Feb 2015 is the benchmark for my yard. Got over 2" in like 30 mins and stuck around for days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, has there ever been a significant post frontal snow here? Significant? Not that I can remember… I can remember an event in November of ‘95 where it was warm and we had a frontal passage that produced about an inch in short time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Feb 2015 is the benchmark for my yard. Got over 2" in like 30 mins and stuck around for days. Hey! Still on amwx server! Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey! Still on amwx server! Lol I'd pay for that to happen to all of us right now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: November 1995. It was THAT long ago. Remember that well! Lots of damaging wind gusts too. Seems like the best and most memorable events catch us by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Feb 2015 is the benchmark for my yard. Got over 2" in like 30 mins and stuck around for days. Had a solid 3" here from that one. Plus the mini whiteout at the end. That was fun and doesn't happen often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'd pay for that to happen to all of us right now Best small event in 20 yard years. Remember it like yesterday. I seared some fillet mignons on my grill in 12 degree temps and 35mph winds while getting blasted by blowing snow. If that ain't livin' I don't know what is 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: November 1995. It was THAT long ago. Did that storm start as warm rain and then quickly change over to heavy snow in a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 An inch is still on the table with the first wave for the Shenandoah Valley. #WhiteChristmasOrBust 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFSx gets us to this look moving into the second week of Jan. Based off the 0z GEFS run from yesterday that goes out to Jan 3. Should this progression transpire, mid to late Jan should be colder than normal, coinciding with near peak climo for cold/snow. That would be putting stress on PV, with the Scandinavian ridging/high and low near the Aleutians. Good pattern for PV disruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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