IronTy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: The story of the week will be the arctic cold front that moves through on Friday…8 in western MD and 60 on the shore… That 8 is right on top of camp. Just.ordered some new -20F sleeping bags for the occasion. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 https://shield.gfdl.noaa.gov/?model=SHiELD_2022&YMDH=2022121812®ion=CONUS&field=TMP2mSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Interesting to note, so far the 00z NAM has the center of low pressure farther to the east of 18z runs through hour 57. Much weaker system and a lack of moisture overall, appears to be suppressed as the precip field struggles to get north of the SC/NC line where as 18z the precip field was up to the VA/NC line. Just a few significant trends I'm noticing with tonights 00z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Comparing the 18z and 00z NAM runs for 12z Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Comparing the 18z and 00z NAM runs for 12z Wednesday It’s the NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s the NAM NAM in range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, DE2PA said: NAM in range 12 hours? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, DE2PA said: NAM in range Exactly. I never use the NAM for the clown maps but rather to look for small changes and track deviations like what I indicated above. During past winter storms the NAM had a habit of sniffing out such things that the globals eventually picked up on in later runs. The NAM model is a tool, like the other models, and has its use. However, most people fail to realize that and only strictly use the NAM to glamour over the clown maps without understanding that the NAM has bias's like the other models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Lol 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol That's hilarious 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Tropical Storm Albedo on New Year's Day? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 NAM IN RANGE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 @Terpeast you’re right that the pna ridge a bit too far west and associated WAR is a problem. But the answer isn’t “let’s lose everything else we also need for a snowstorm” like the NAO/AO and Aleutian low. There was more right than wrong with the longwave pattern. Blowing it all up seems unlikely to result in getting us closer to right. I’d prefer to root for the subtle changes we need in the pna and western Atlantic and not lose the good stuff. ETA: the problem with “let’s reshuffle the deck” is there are lots of combinations and like 90% of them don’t work. It’s unlikely any reshuffle results in a better look when you had a decent longwave configuration and just needed a slight adjustment. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Can we all just dump a bunch of ice cubes in the North Atlantic to help reduce the WAR? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Storm back to being so far west we can’t get front end and backend is probably out. Just so frustrating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 This may cut to Des Moines when all is said and done. Chicago even rains on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Last couple model runs of the GFS/GGEM/NAM are showing some icing potential for 81 corridor on Thursday with the lead wave. 0Z GFS actually spits out some respectable numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GFS is even worse at the H5. Just like the Skins fumbling in the red zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast you’re right that the pna ridge a bit too far west and associated WAR is a problem. But the answer isn’t “let’s lose everything else we also need for a snowstorm” like the NAO/AO and Aleutian low. There was more right than wrong with the longwave pattern. Blowing it all up seems unlikely to result in getting us closer to right. I’d prefer to root for the subtle changes we need in the pna and western Atlantic and not lose the good stuff. ETA: the problem with “let’s reshuffle the deck” is there are lots of combinations and like 90% of them don’t work. It’s unlikely any reshuffle results in a better look when you had a decent longwave configuration and just needed a slight adjustment. I don’t remember saying anything to the effect of “losing everything else we need for a snowstorm” just because the pna ridge was too far west. In fact, my point was we were so close and all we needed was a slight adjustment on the overall pattern. Shift that ridge east a bit and we might have gotten something. And it’s certainly possible the -NAO might have been too much too strong with the TNH. But I wasn’t saying we need to “reshuffle the deck” and start over. As if we had any control over mother nature. She’ll do that for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast you’re right that the pna ridge a bit too far west and associated WAR is a problem. But the answer isn’t “let’s lose everything else we also need for a snowstorm” like the NAO/AO and Aleutian low. There was more right than wrong with the longwave pattern. Blowing it all up seems unlikely to result in getting us closer to right. I’d prefer to root for the subtle changes we need in the pna and western Atlantic and not lose the good stuff. ETA: the problem with “let’s reshuffle the deck” is there are lots of combinations and like 90% of them don’t work. It’s unlikely any reshuffle results in a better look when you had a decent longwave configuration and just needed a slight adjustment. Just for the sake of discussion, since there isn't much else to discuss right now are there any reasonable breaks that we might conceivably get to improve the decent long-wave patter assuming it does reload. I mean other than reversing decades of excess heat dump into the oceans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Alex I’ll take things you hardly ever see for 1000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Can anyone spot the front? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Can anyone spot the front? No. Evansville? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Alex I’ll take things you hardly ever see for 1000. The Christmas travel mess that is gonna cause will be wild. Yikes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Alex I’ll take things you hardly ever see for 1000. What do you mean? It snows in the NC sandhills while raining in Caribou Maine all the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Alex I’ll take things you hardly ever see for 1000. Looks like a land hurricane to me. It's going to be a crazy FROPA. Like, I'll want to be outside when it moves through to experience the sudden 30-degree temperature drop firsthand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 That fropa will be fun to watch if it pans out… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 I hope Santa packs his parka. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Does the GFS have any support with this? Evolution looks pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can we all just dump a bunch of ice cubes in the North Atlantic to help reduce the WAR? I dabbled in pacifism. ....not in NAM, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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