Weather Will Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 NWS Sterling: However, guidance is now picking up on a weaker system sliding over the region earlier Thursday morning or even perhaps late Wednesday night. This system could interact with some sub-freezing air west of the Blue Ridge and result in some wintry precipitation. WB 6Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Even with no snow it is going to be freezing Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Looks like all the ensemble guidance agrees on new years warmth. How are we looking past the warm up and start entering our prime snow climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I’m all for a warmup if it’s not going to snow. Bring it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m all for a warmup if it’s not going to snow. Bring it! I'm good with it if it's dry. Plenty of outside stuff to do and so much nicer in winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Here comes my 70... warmth RELOADED delayed but not denied!! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Not seeing any super anomalous warmth on the means after the mild cutter/cold and dry period(the fruits of our epic pattern!). Looks mild for a time for sure, probably several days in the low to mid 50s, maybe warmer ahead of any potential storm that would probably track well west during that period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not seeing any super anomalous warmth on the means after the mild cutter/cold and dry period(the fruits of our epic pattern!). Looks mild for a time for sure, probably several days in the low to mid 50s, maybe warmer ahead of any potential storm that would probably track well west during that period. Yeah, without using the overused “R” word, the weeklies still maintain a mean eastern trough over the east through Jan. Key is to pull that western ridge far enough east to prevent storms from cutting. Also the NAO seems to be going neutral or weakly positive. That may not be a bad thing with that +TNH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I guess root for the GEPS for those that don't want to see any relaxation. Very brief pattern reshuffle then back to the same general look for early Jan. I am kind of in favor of blowing it up and trying something a little different at this point. GEFS and EPS going more towards that idea. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I guess root for the GEPS for those that don't want to see any relaxation. Very brief pattern reshuffle then back to the same general look for early Jan. I am kind of in favor of blowing it up and trying something a little different at this point. GEFS and EPS going more towards that idea. I guess Doug K. Is popping champagne bottles right now. Reload End of year/ beginning of January. So we are looking at mid - January for a more favorable pattern. Maybe even a little later than that. Damn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I guess Doug K. Is popping champagne bottles right now. Reload End of year/ beginning of January. So we are looking at mid - January for a more favorable pattern. Maybe even a little later than that. Damn. 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I guess root for the GEPS for those that don't want to see any relaxation. Very brief pattern reshuffle then back to the same general look for early Jan. I am kind of in favor of blowing it up and trying something a little different at this point. GEFS and EPS going more towards that idea. So the dude who said we could touch 70 next 2 week period and the other dude who kept saying shut the blinds might actually verify? Amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I guess root for the GEPS for those that don't want to see any relaxation. Very brief pattern reshuffle then back to the same general look for early Jan. I am kind of in favor of blowing it up and trying something a little different at this point. GEFS and EPS going more towards that idea. I've heard the -nao ao seems to perform better in our area in jan and feb..march..that it's not as effective in December. Or maybe because there is usually colder weather avaliable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I guess Doug K. Is popping champagne bottles right now. Reload End of year/ beginning of January. So we are looking at mid - January for a more favorable pattern. Maybe even a little later than that. Damn. Actually the EPS look at the end of its run is heading back towards the same general longwave pattern with a PNA ridge and hints of a -EPO. At least for now the Pac seems to remain generally in a non hostile state, which is always the biggest battle in a Nina. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I've heard the -nao ao seems to perform better in our area in jan and feb..march..that it's not as effective in December. Or maybe because there is usually colder weather avaliable... I know others may disagree, but in a Nina I will take a -EPO/neutral to +PNA to increase chances for cold air delivery, vs. Pacific puke and a beautiful but impotent -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know others may disagree, but in a Nina I will take a -EPO/neutral to +PNA to increase chances for cold air delivery, vs. Pacific puke and a beautiful but impotent -NAO. Later in the season we can get by with a more hostile Pac and a beautiful -NAO as wavelengths shorten, but this time of year… Personally, I’m not punting the last 8 days of this month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Thursday am might be our 1 opportunity we have for a while to get on the board. Atleast for northern areas. I think we need to root for the quickest arrival possible for the front runner. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Later in the season we can get by with a more hostile Pac and a beautiful -NAO as wavelengths shorten, but this time of year… Personally, I’m not punting the last 8 days of this month. I feel like we have to get this weeks massive storm out of the way first to see how that shuffles things. It’s way too early to be skipping the rest of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Later in the season we can get by with a more hostile Pac and a beautiful -NAO as wavelengths shorten, but this time of year… Personally, I’m not punting the last 8 days of this month. Well you know I cant be lol. The 27-28th potential is still there, with the Canadian mean continuing to have the strongest signal. Makes some sense as it really never breaks down the cold pattern, and certainly not as quickly. It seems to have performed pretty well lately, but I don't track model scores. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 So it's a zero chance the big storm this week doesn't shift east some for more white? We locked in now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So it's a zero chance the big storm this week doesn't shift east some for more white? We locked in now... GFS at 6z sure did try to give some snow with the leading piece of action later this week. 3-5" for NW folks at d4.5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So it's a zero chance the big storm this week doesn't shift east some for more white? We locked in now... Some adjustments are still possible. The wester you are the better the chances for something frozen at the beginning and maybe again at the end, the way it looks to me. Over here, it's pretty much locked in as a mild rain event with following cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: GFS at 6z sure did try to give some snow with the leading piece of action later this week. 3-5" for NW folks at d4.5 Where do I sign? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Some adjustments are still possible. The wester you are the better the chances for something frozen at the beginning and maybe again at the end, the way it looks to me. Over here, it's pretty much locked in as a mild rain event with following cold. Yeah, I am still in the game for a white Christmas out here, but anything over 4 or 5 inches seems out of the realm of possibilities at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Yeah, I am still in the game for a white Christmas out here, but anything over 4 or 5 inches seems out of the realm of possibilities at the moment. I wouldn't say it's out of the realm of possibility for us to exceed 5 inches out this way. We can get thumped on the front end and snag another inch or 2 with the frontal passage. And whatever does fall will stick around for a while at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It’s the nam at long range, but 12z looks to be handling the system entering the northwest differently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Where do I sign? Couldn't agree more, I'd be signing now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s the nam at long range, but 12z looks to be handling the system entering the northwest differently. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Where do I sign? yup me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's times like these that I take comfort looking back on the fact that you're rarely right in these situations 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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