SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs continues to hold firm on its more eastern solution. Going to be a gfs vs euro showdown again. Obviously can't believe anything at this range because it's all fair game until we get adequate sampling of the pieces in play. Until the GFS gives us a reason to believe it, it has been awful. So I would at least put more weight in the non-GFS solutions until we get more data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 00z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Trend on all 0z OP guidance has been SE overall. This is mainly due to changes in handling of the PV lobe in Canada, ridging ahead of the incoming wave/building trough and changes in ridging building into the West Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I see that. Sigh. Obviously plenty can change still. But why I haven't got excited or too invested in this yet. You seem pretty invested for someone that is “not invested” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: You seem pretty invested for someone that is “not invested” Okay thanks for that useful post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Okay thanks for that useful post Anytime hoss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: 00z GFS Another WV SLP (OH Special). Need to thread the needle with an SLP crossing mid-or slightly east in Lk Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GEFS has some big hits and some total misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ukmet was a big shift south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Another WV SLP (OH Special). Need to thread the needle with an SLP crossing mid-or slightly east in Lk Erie I'm back in the bullseye again with 12". Not a good place to be 5 days out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS is like some crappy opening band u gotta sit through before the main show. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 If 0z euro jumps se that will definitely be alarming considering its been pretty consistent for several runs. But nothing would shock me at this point. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ukmet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Waiting for the euro but hopeful for the classic “every model shifts southeast then baby steps northwest”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, sbnwx85 said: Waiting for the euro but hopeful for the classic “every model shifts southeast then baby steps northwest”. It’s on its way out I’ll post a gif when it’s fully in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Waiting for the euro but hopeful for the classic “every model shifts southeast then baby steps northwest”. My guess is Euro will slide SE in future runs to meet GFS and CMC. It might tick back far enough NW to keep you and southside in the game. LES may bail out Alex and NW burbs get screwed again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I can nearly assure that the euro is going to win, since I am currently in town. Storms always wait until after I fly back home before it dumps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Low seems more E than SE at 120hrs compared to 0z last night (Pivotal free only goes in 24hr increments so I can’t compare to 12z yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Trend on all 0z OP guidance has been SE overall. This is mainly due to changes in handling of the PV lobe in Canada, ridging ahead of the incoming wave/building trough and changes in ridging building into the West Coast.0z Euro the only OP guidance not to move SE in any significant fashion.A bit less amped, which altered things a bit though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 If it actually sits and spins (phrasing!) over Michigan like the Euro is depicting that is going to be a devastating blizzard here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z Euro the only OP guidance not to move SE in any significant fashion.A bit less amped, which altered things a bit though.Yep that wasn't any sort of trend toward the other guidance. Small change in the scheme of things and good run to run consistency given the complexity of the setup. Expected more of a shift given how the other guidance really emphasized on the Hudson Bay polar vortex lobe suppressing heights enough to force the storm farther east. The Euro is still letting the main PV (potential vorticity) anomaly/500 mb low do its thing and in this case it was ever so slightly less amped, leading to slightly farther east surface low position over Michigan. As is, high end blizzard for western Lower Michigan and far northwest and north central IN. Out this way, that would be a very high impact storm with warning criteria snow amounts, temps in single digits and winds gusting to 50 mph. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 00Z EURO VS 00Z Goofus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Nice snow dome right over me. Ha. Peoria dome lives on. On euro miss that initial wave north and don't get the wrap around as the low occluded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I think we all get blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nice snow dome right over me. Ha. Peoria dome lives on. On euro miss that initial wave north and don't get the wrap around as the low occluded. Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: I think we all get blizzard Can you show the north east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate. Well that's even more depressing. Lol. But you're probably right with those flakes getting shredded. Hopefully can get some more qpf involved or get in on 1st wave or wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Not sure about the loop near southern L Michigan on the ECM, but anyway, all models now coming into a fairly good agreement that this is essentially a windstorm with severe lake effect squall potential and moderate synoptic scale due to lack of moisture and short duration of over-running at any given location. It's a bit different in evolution from 1-26-1978 in that it deepens over the Midwest rather than bombing out from a southern origin (AL to Lake Huron for Jan 78). Looks like a top ten wind event and depends where you are relative to squall bands for snow or actual blizzard, but ground blizzard would be widespread given some snow and the fierce wind gusts. The chill would also be lethal. The timing could hardly be worse, start of a weekend Christmas travel period. That's going to turn into a four-day stay at some stranger's farm house in some cases. Pack gear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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