Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12am 12/22 - 12am Christmas Day, 18z GFS Higher totals SE of the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Umm, yeah, right What? That looks totally normal to me.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chambana said: Regardless if my heart gets broken by this beauty, the fact we finally get a blizz 2-3 days before Christmas has me giddy. If we could tap more gulf moisture, this could be historic. I do like my position right now. I don't hate the GFS 18z. Deepens too late to be a massive bomb storm, but would appear to keep the mixy stuff away. Strong and west I get to perhaps witness some wild atmospheric phenomena, more pedestrian and east gets me a nice timely Christmas gift. I don't mind where I sit either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It has been a long time since I've seen a model battle like what we are seeing today. The Midwest weather almost never has model runs debating 980mb and such. There's the 12z ECMWF's 979mb in Muskegon, Michigan versus the 18z GFS run of 980mb-976mb in northern Ohio. These days, I'm back here and not in the West, so I'm in the middle of it. There's going to be a lot of model runs with widely varying scenarios in the next few days. I'm going to just keep watching the total weather weenieism on this board and enjoy it! Because hey, the 18z GFS has 13.8" for Toledo. And I'm sure the models today won't be right. And I'm sure snow-rain ratios won't be more than 12:1 for my area whatever does happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 12am 12/22 - 12am Christmas Day, 18z GFS Higher totals SE of the 12z run. That northern IL hole makes me happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I do have some file size 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said: The Euro Cleared my attachment history, but having file size issue. How big are those files? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Cleared my attachment history, but having file size issue. How big are those files? 2.7mb roughly I’m able to post up to 7.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: 2.7mb roughly I’m able to post up to 7.8 Says my limit is 1.95MB. Wondering why, and how it could be so much lower than yours. And how to get it fixed. Truncated run I wanted to post is still about 2.4MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Sorry for the dumb question but is there a possibility of lake effect or enhancement on the backend of this for Illinois/Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Says my limit is 1.95MB. Wondering why, and how it could be so much lower than yours. And how to get it fixed. Truncated run I wanted to post is still about 2.4MB I think me being a subscriber is why. This is the time of year I like to make gifs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Sciascia said: 12am 12/22 - 12am Christmas Day, 18z GFS Higher totals SE of the 12z run. That would be par for the course for here. Good ol central IL doughnut hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 59 minutes ago, Chinook said: It has been a long time since I've seen a model battle like what we are seeing today. The Midwest weather almost never has model runs debating 980mb and such. There's the 12z ECMWF's 979mb in Muskegon, Michigan versus the 18z GFS run of 980mb-976mb in northern Ohio. These days, I'm back here and not in the West, so I'm in the middle of it. There's going to be a lot of model runs with widely varying scenarios in the next few days. I'm going to just keep watching the total weather weenieism on this board and enjoy it! Because hey, the 18z GFS has 13.8" for Toledo. And I'm sure the models today won't be right. And I'm sure snow-rain ratios won't be more than 12:1 for my area whatever does happen. Nice to have a local met rooting my area. 2017 was a cold pattern starting in early December so the robust clipper that dropped 5" in our area Christmas was nice, but to have this bigger threat a few days out this year is pretty cool as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: I think I'll hold off until HRRR range and then wait for the last minute adjustment, NAM has broke my heart more times than I can count inside of 48 hours You're not lying. Def trust hrrr more than nam. Really hoping euro has this one slam dunked. Gfs solution would just suck. Lol. So close yet so far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 46 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: You're not lying. Def trust hrrr more than nam. Really hoping euro has this one slam dunked. Gfs solution would just suck. Lol. So close yet so far away. Truthfully, I cannot remember the last time this year I was excited about the weather ahead. It has been that benign for so long, I've grown accustomed to yawntivity throughout the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Truthfully, I cannot remember the last time this year I was excited about the weather ahead. It has been that benign for so long, I've grown accustomed to yawntivity throughout the atmosphere I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon. I'm not excited either, one thing that has a bit of optimism going for me is the OP, CS doesn't make fantasy threads or overhype. I always pay attention when he starts them. Still remember the monster clipper from accuwx days, he started the thread less than 48 hours out when no one else had mentioned it, it had WSWarnings from IA into OH with 6"+ totals, had to have been '07-'09 or thereabouts. Miss the historical data that site had in it. Forever lost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon. There's also plenty of amped EPS members along the lines of the 12z UKMET. The overall trend vs. the 12z was again a lean to the west with the lower pressures. This is a high risk, high reward setup. It's interesting that 3 consecutive full Euro runs have nailed this area. As a snow enthusiast, it's fun to see obviously, but less meaningful than it seems given the still large spread among the EPS members. On this side of the lake, probabilities of >=3 and 6 inches favor Wisconsin, northeast IA, and southeast MN more than northern Illinois on the EPS, though have ticked up over the past few runs. Long way to go with this one. If we're allowed to post EPS stuff from WeatherBell or Pivotal, can post some later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, TheNiño said: Sorry for the dumb question but is there a possibility of lake effect or enhancement on the backend of this for Illinois/Wisconsin? There could be, but it highly depends on the track of the SLP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'm not excited either, one thing that has a bit of optimism going for me is the OP, CS doesn't make fantasy threads or overhype. I always pay attention when he starts them. Still remember the monster clipper from accuwx days, he started the thread less than 48 hours out when no one else had mentioned it, it had WSWarnings from IA into OH with 6"+ totals, had to have been '07-'09 or thereabouts. Miss the historical data that site had in it. Forever lost. Man I miss the days of AccuWeather forums. Those were the good ol' days though I have really grown to love this forum with a lot of amazing professional input and discussion. I learn a lot. I actually remember that one. That was a fun one to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: There's also plenty of amped EPS members along the lines of the 12z UKMET. The overall trend vs. the 12z was again a lean to the west with the lower pressures. This is a high risk, high reward setup. It's interesting that 3 consecutive full Euro runs have nailed this area. As a snow enthusiast, it's fun to see obviously, but less meaningful than it seems given the still large spread among the EPS members. On this side of the lake, probabilities of >=3 and 6 inches favor Wisconsin, northeast IA, and southeast MN more than northern Illinois on the EPS, though have ticked up over the past few runs. Long way to go with this one. If we're allowed to post EPS stuff, can post some later on. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Definitely hard to ignore the consistency of the OP euro. Definitely far from set in stone but it's more trustworthy than OP gfs which is still wobbling quite a bit run to run. Would love to see some EPS stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: Truthfully, I cannot remember the last time this year I was excited about the weather ahead. It has been that benign for so long, I've grown accustomed to yawntivity throughout the atmosphere Sounds like here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Popping in for Alek’s first and final call 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: The Euro Hurricane force snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: . Model trend gif courtesy of Thundersnow12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z gfs continues to hold firm on its more eastern solution. Going to be a gfs vs euro showdown again. Obviously can't believe anything at this range because it's all fair game until we get adequate sampling of the pieces in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GEM went east also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs continues to hold firm on its more eastern solution. Going to be a gfs vs euro showdown again. Obviously can't believe anything at this range because it's all fair game until we get adequate sampling of the pieces in play. Those past two GFS runs must be screaming for a 2004 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cary67 said: GEM went east also I see that. Sigh. Obviously plenty can change still. But why I haven't got excited or too invested in this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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