Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

[Malacka11]

Anyone have those sexy old weatherbell EPS snowfall maps?

[Frog Town]

Still think the low ends up a bit further east looking at the EPS Low cluster.  Regardless we all cash in for some pre-christmas magic 

[kevlon62]

Great to have things frozen up before this gets in play.

Drifting pretty nicely on the north/south roads today.

Stage is set.

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

966 mb over Lake Ontario, 1043 over ND...who's ready for the hurricane-force northwesterlies?

Would love to hear some roarin like GHD-1

4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I’d be more then happy to see that play out. I work for the power company in my area and I’d love to sit in my work truck watching winds whip the snow around

But for 3 days?? Read-up on '78 my friend

[hlcater]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

One thing I notice is, as strong as the storm is, the cold sector precip is not exceptionally intense.  This probably has to do with the deep moisture being displaced off the east coast, not accessible by the great lakes storm.

Probably also the fact that the cold side of this system is (very) cold. There is 0.30 of 6H QPF falling behind the arctic front with wind gusts of 40-50mph. It really reminds me of that system a few years ago with the flash freeze and snow falling behind the crashing front which was admittedly some of the worst winter wx conditions we've seen in recent years, despite only getting 4-5" of snow.

[RogueWaves]

Nice banter on DTX/SEMI bliz warned history. If I did the math correctly (number of total days/365), their map dated back to GHD-1 soon to be 12 years ago. I remember all of SMI glowing in a sea of red headlines. It may have technically verified in Wayne Cnty, but iirc it was 8" followed by dry slotting futility. Not sure bout winds. Northern parts/half of DTX definitely verified, tho pixie flakes were very dissapointing and imho were not the fault of strong winds ('78 was higher for SMI and much larger dendrites due to bombing out SLP). 

Thumb region of DTX had full-on bliz in Dec of '00 as written in their storm summary. I was in NWIN and pre-wxboard days Idk if a bliz warning was issued for SEMI or parts thereof? We had one issued for S. Bend

Your recountings of Feb 2003 are a complete mystery to me. I don't remember those being sig events in Marshall further west. Jan '05 had the 12+ for DTW but didn't go look at daily data - guessing winds were a bit too low? Not sure the headlines issued either. Was in Frankenmuth then and just 5-ish was drifting around there.  

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Why do we care so much about what the east coast snobs think? Obviously a long ways to go but more often than not when you're looking at a storm strengthening like this, you'd rather be west of guidance (Always will have ghd nightmares/flashbacks). I think this is the winter the nw trend comes back, unfortunately for peeps east of chitown.

Come on...this is completely uncalled for.  What is the point of saying something like this?  Oh wait...I forgot that the American culture thrives on putting everyone else down as much as possible in order to feel better about ourselves.

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

Come on...this is completely uncalled for.  What is the point of saying something like this?  Oh wait...I forgot that the American culture thrives on putting everyone else down as much as possible in order to feel better about ourselves.

It's not a competition per se, since we cannot control the outcome no matter how we wish to. Nonetheless, it oft times feels like a tug-of-war between Subs as to who gets the prize and quite frankly, they win so many more times that I don't feel too sorry for them. They out Big Dog us about 5 to 1. Shame they were left clinging to the GFS at this range as the light at the end of their storm tunnel ended up being a train. They get Ninos, we "should" have a better hand dealt in a Nina -especially a triple that's been lame on the first 2 seasons. 

[Powerball]

24 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Would love to hear some roarin like GHD-1

But for 3 days?? Read-up on '78 my friend

And given 45 years of aging, I'd like to think the power lines (which are mostly above ground) and transformers are a lot more precarious in the Detroit area these days.

[Powerball]

10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice banter on DTX/SEMI bliz warned history. If I did the math correctly (number of total days/365), their map dated back to GHD-1 soon to be 12 years ago. I remember all of SMI glowing in a sea of red headlines. It may have technically verified in Wayne Cnty, but iirc it was 8" followed by dry slotting futility. Not sure bout winds. Northern parts/half of DTX definitely verified, tho pixie flakes were very dissapointing and imho were not the fault of strong winds ('78 was higher for SMI and much larger dendrites due to bombing out SLP). 

Thumb region of DTX had full-on bliz in Dec of '00 as written in their storm summary. I was in NWIN and pre-wxboard days Idk if a bliz warning was issued for SEMI or parts thereof? We had one issued for S. Bend

Your recountings of Feb 2003 are a complete mystery to me. I don't remember those being sig events in Marshall further west. Jan '05 had the 12+ for DTW but didn't go look at daily data - guessing winds were a bit too low? Not sure the headlines issued either. Was in Frankenmuth then and just 5-ish was drifting around there.  

There was definitely a sharp drop off in amounts/impact from east to west with February 21st - 23rd storm. The areas along the Detroit river into SW Ontario were hit the hardest.

[RogueWaves]

GRR

-Late week storm potential

Guidance continues to show the potential for impactful storm for
the end of next week. A powerful mid to upper-level wave digs down
from the Canadian Rockies becoming negative tilted as it enters
the Great Lakes region. This system draws up abundant Gulf
moisture which meets up with the arctic air advecting in from the
Upper Midwest to generate heavy precipitation here in MI. There
is still a lot of uncertainty on how much impacts we will see but
confidence is on the increase that we will see some winter impacts
by this storm. The GFS deterministic has trended west with surface
low track...taking it up through the east side of MI...while the
ECMWF has is coming over the west side of the state. The Canadian
looks a lot like the GFS. These two models would support a heavy
windy snow event through the duration. While the track of the
ECMWF would support a transition to a period of rain...the onset
and backside of that run would still generate winter impacts. The
ECMWF ensemble shows plenty of members with heavy snow.
Still... much can change on the details...but based on the
ensemble trends...confidence on impacts is on the increase
starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday.

[SolidIcewx]

20 minutes ago, Powerball said:

And given 45 years of aging, I'd like to think the power lines (which are mostly above ground) and transformers are a lot more precarious in the Detroit area these days.

I work for DTE I’m not confident in some of the areas right now. In Royal oak recently I seen some poles that were 60-75 years old. Been around some power lines lately and some a lot like in the city have very old worn away telephone lines. While some areas like southeast of where I live there are steel-aluminum alloy poles newly put in

[A-L-E-K]

Kinda feels like it might be happening huh

[Joshb32689]

East Cost snob here, long time Philly lurker, traveling to ORD morning of 22nd and staying in Evanston visiting family through the 27th. Was feeling disappointed we would be missing out on the snowstorm on the east coast as previously modeled but feeling encouraged now that things are looking juicy out here for when we’ll be in town.

Not too familiar with Chicagoland weather patterns and snowstorm evolution.

First and foremost, curious if we should consider moving our flights to the evening of the 21st to avoid potential travel impacts or if we’d be safe chancing a 10am arrival on the 22nd. 

Also curious to know what thoughts are on this system as depicted by the recent model runs with those Kuchera maps spitting out 1-2 feet. Are we getting close to any reality yet and is this a typical setup for a classic storm out this way? Everything on the east coast is a thread the needle event and 99 times out of 100, we forget the needle altogether. 
 

How tempered should my expectations be at this point or can I start getting excited? 
 

Thanks! 
 

-Philly Weenie 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Gfs looking similar to 12z, maybe a touch north/west

 

edit: nope, riding the same line thru 126

[Sciascia]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Kinda feels like it might be happening huh

[jlauderdal]

East Cost snob here, long time Philly lurker, traveling to ORD morning of 22nd and staying in Evanston visiting family through the 27th. Was feeling disappointed we would be missing out on the snowstorm on the east coast as previously modeled but feeling encouraged now that things are looking juicy out here for when we’ll be in town.
Not too familiar with Chicagoland weather patterns and snowstorm evolution.
First and foremost, curious if we should consider moving our flights to the evening of the 21st to avoid potential travel impacts or if we’d be safe chancing a 10am arrival on the 22nd. 
Also curious to know what thoughts are on this system as depicted by the recent model runs with those Kuchera maps spitting out 1-2 feet. Are we getting close to any reality yet and is this a typical setup for a classic storm out this way? Everything on the east coast is a thread the needle event and 99 times out of 100, we forget the needle altogether. 
 
How tempered should my expectations be at this point or can I start getting excited? 
 
Thanks! 
 
-Philly Weenie 

Heading from Florida on weds, this thing better deliver.

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Come on...this is completely uncalled for.  What is the point of saying something like this?  Oh wait...I forgot that the American culture thrives on putting everyone else down as much as possible in order to feel better about ourselves.

Calm down there karen. Dont be so sensitive like 99% of american culture. Its just a little word and was just kinda joking around. I don't think anyone was harmed physically or emotionally with my post. My point was just that too many seem obsessed with the east coast. In the end they will get their snow.

[WeatherMonger]

ILX pretty late with their AFD. Late morning update ended with this.

Edit, N/M garbage phone having caching issues. Checked with other phone and it was put at 2:49

Quote

We`ll soon begin analyzing the latest suite of 12z deterministic
and ensemble guidance to assess next week`s hazard potential.
Dangerously cold conditions and accumulating snow will headline
this afternoon`s AFD.

 

[ChiTownSnow]

Although track wise GFS has caved a bit to other models, this is NOT the same storm the EURO had a few runs ago.  Just need to level set a bit 

[WeatherMonger]

ILX AFD

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

The focus for this period continues to be:
(1) Extreme cold;
(2) Strong winds; and
(3) Some snow.

Extreme Cold:
Confidence remains high that an arctic outbreak will occur in wake
of a departing winter storm system Thursday - Saturday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is suggesting daily highs in the low
teens or single digits with overnight lows near or below zero.
These temperatures, coupled with strong winds, will result in wind
chill values of 10-30 degF below zero both Friday and Saturday
mornings. Surprisingly, as cold as its going to get, it will fall
well short of records. Less extreme cold returns following
Christmas day, but temperatures will remain well below normal for
this time of year.

Winds:
Strong baroclinicity and a rapidly deepening surface low will
result in very gusty winds Thursday - Saturday across the
Midwest. Sustained speeds between 20-25 mph will be accompanied by
frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. There is now enough semblance
among guidance to make this a high confidence threat.

Snow:
While the 12z GFS and its suite of ensemble guidance has come into
better alignment with the CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET with regards to a
closed, upper-low evolving across the Midwest on Thursday, there
are still notable differences with respect to amplitude, timing,
and orientation of this feature. The most probable outcome for
central Illinois at this juncture favors the Grand Ensemble mean,
which paints about 0.25" of QPF across our area. With a snow ratio
of 12:1, this puts us at a few inches of accumulating snow. At
this point, with such high variance among forecast guidance, it
does little good to provide synoptic and mesoanalysis of what
could happen 5-6 days out. But looking at the conceptual model of
the system, there`s a strong likelihood that somebody across the
Midwest gets hammered by this one.

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

ILX AFD

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

The focus for this period continues to be:
(1) Extreme cold;
(2) Strong winds; and
(3) Some snow.

Extreme Cold:
Confidence remains high that an arctic outbreak will occur in wake
of a departing winter storm system Thursday - Saturday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is suggesting daily highs in the low
teens or single digits with overnight lows near or below zero.
These temperatures, coupled with strong winds, will result in wind
chill values of 10-30 degF below zero both Friday and Saturday
mornings. Surprisingly, as cold as its going to get, it will fall
well short of records. Less extreme cold returns following
Christmas day, but temperatures will remain well below normal for
this time of year.

Winds:
Strong baroclinicity and a rapidly deepening surface low will
result in very gusty winds Thursday - Saturday across the
Midwest. Sustained speeds between 20-25 mph will be accompanied by
frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. There is now enough semblance
among guidance to make this a high confidence threat.

Snow:
While the 12z GFS and its suite of ensemble guidance has come into
better alignment with the CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET with regards to a
closed, upper-low evolving across the Midwest on Thursday, there
are still notable differences with respect to amplitude, timing,
and orientation of this feature. The most probable outcome for
central Illinois at this juncture favors the Grand Ensemble mean,
which paints about 0.25" of QPF across our area. With a snow ratio
of 12:1, this puts us at a few inches of accumulating snow. At
this point, with such high variance among forecast guidance, it
does little good to provide synoptic and mesoanalysis of what
could happen 5-6 days out. But looking at the conceptual model of
the system, there`s a strong likelihood that somebody across the
Midwest gets hammered by this one.

I like the last paragraph..haha

[Chicago Storm]

East Cost snob here, long time Philly lurker, traveling to ORD morning of 22nd and staying in Evanston visiting family through the 27th. Was feeling disappointed we would be missing out on the snowstorm on the east coast as previously modeled but feeling encouraged now that things are looking juicy out here for when we’ll be in town.
Not too familiar with Chicagoland weather patterns and snowstorm evolution.
First and foremost, curious if we should consider moving our flights to the evening of the 21st to avoid potential travel impacts or if we’d be safe chancing a 10am arrival on the 22nd. 
Also curious to know what thoughts are on this system as depicted by the recent model runs with those Kuchera maps spitting out 1-2 feet. Are we getting close to any reality yet and is this a typical setup for a classic storm out this way? Everything on the east coast is a thread the needle event and 99 times out of 100, we forget the needle altogether. 
 
How tempered should my expectations be at this point or can I start getting excited? 
 
Thanks! 
 
-Philly Weenie 

If things go as most current guidance suggests, I definitely would not recommend flying in on the 22nd.

Kuchera output will be useless for most places with this storm system, as depicted on current guidance. Projected strong winds will create lower snow ratios.


.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

It's not a competition per se, since we cannot control the outcome no matter how we wish to. Nonetheless, it oft times feels like a tug-of-war between Subs as to who gets the prize and quite frankly, they win so many more times that I don't feel too sorry for them. They out Big Dog us about 5 to 1. Shame they were left clinging to the GFS at this range as the light at the end of their storm tunnel ended up being a train. They get Ninos, we "should" have a better hand dealt in a Nina -especially a triple that's been lame on the first 2 seasons. 

The rule of thumb is quite simple. We get more frequent snowfalls and they have a higher ceiling for the big storms. This season has not started out particularly "normal" for anyone, but the end result is the same. Everyone wants for their backyard, no matter what the event.

[Radtechwxman]

I see 18z gfs is continuing to gfs. I'm eager to see this in nam's range in a few days.

[WeatherMonger]

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see 18z gfs is continuing to gfs. I'm eager to see this in nam's range in a few days.

 

I think I'll hold off until HRRR range and then wait for the last minute adjustment, NAM has broke my heart more times than I can count inside of 48 hours 

[RogueWaves]

I see why nobody posts any loops. Silly file size limit 

 

[RogueWaves]

Umm, yeah, right

[RogueWaves]

IWX

Medium range models continue to be in excellent agreement in carving
out an impressive pv anomaly into the Central and Eastern US
Thursday into Friday. Rapid cyclogenesis and a potent winter storm
appears likely given a very energetic upper jet and good moisture
return along an associated arctic front. The details
(track/intensity/ptype evolution/etc) are obviously highly uncertain
at this range with expected large spreads in ensemble low pressure
tracks (track overhead with a rain to snow scenario...or east for
mainly snow). With that said, confidence does continue to increase
for a period of accumulating snow and wind toward the end of the
week (Thursday night-Friday), followed by a shot of arctic air and
chances for lake effect snow in time for Christmas Eve and
Christmas. Headline worthy snow, winds and wind chills are
definitely in play. We will continue to closely monitor this system
and patiently await lessening model spread in the coming days.

[Chambana]

Regardless if my heart gets broken by this beauty, the fact we finally get a blizz 2-3 days before Christmas has me giddy. If we could tap more gulf moisture, this could be historic. I do like my position right now.