A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 powerball crushed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’m actually intrigued if this continues, the initial WAA snows should keep drifting south and might be able to save southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois You’re catching the cheese ball of optimism. Whoo! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: wow, what a disaster to wake up to this morning. another storm crapped the bed. at least I'm leaving for Tampa in a few days. palm tree weather coming. not really palm tree weather in florida this weekend but better than windchills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I can’t wait until Alek’s 5” call verified because of 4” of WAA followed by an inch from an arctic frontal passage. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I’ll take a fried NAM sandwich 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Been in you guys shoes many times….good luck Chicagoland. I did discover the best snow weenie screen name on this forum. Congrats imneversatisfied-sums it up for many of us (not me) in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: hopefully you’re heading elsewhere after arrival. . yup, beach house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It feels like we've been tracking the storm forever, but what's crazy is that even right now, there's still a lot of time left with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 FWIW, 12z RGEM is weaker (thus doesn't wrap up nearly as well), but the track is the same from the 00z run and it's not NAM bad with the cold sector precip. So still a solid run of the mill event for IL / WI / W. MI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 When its all said and done, todays sofla event might be bigger than the midwest event. There is a low moving across the gulf, giving us rain and choking the moisture feed for the midwest system. NWS Miami @NWSMiami @NWSWPC has placed all of South Florida in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. This means that isolated flash flooding is possible, especially in vulnerable urban locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I really do like the NWS "Probabilistic Forecast" charts they started publishing which show a "Low", "Expected", and "High" range and are updated every few hours with new model runs. The options seem to set expectations well based on an over/under performance of model data at any snapshot in time. Based on the maps at 9 AM on 12/20, my area can be expected to get 3 inches (low), 6 (expected), or 10 (high). The LOT forecast discussion (which I wish more of the TV mets would refer to!) basically says something I posted last night that it doesn't matter if it is 3 inches or 10 inches, 50 MPH winds are going to cause huge issues. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: When its all said and done, todays sofla event might be bigger than the midwest event. There is a low moving across the gulf, giving us rain and choking the moisture feed for the midwest system. NWS Miami @NWSMiami @NWSWPC has placed all of South Florida in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. This means that isolated flash flooding is possible, especially in vulnerable urban locations. love it. choke the gulf moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkess Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hello, I'm new to this forum. I just want to say thank you for giving us the head's up. I've been an avid weather watcher for decades. Mother nature is fascinating to me. The snow and ice (flash freeze rain) is bad enough but the wind and cold oh boy! I'll be witnessing yet another historic storm in my lifetime, but this one has me worried. Blizzard of 78 was nothing to a teenager; However as time has marched on and I'm not so nimble anymore, I am NOT looking forward to this storm. Thanks again everyone for your hard work and head's up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFS starting now after a half hour delay. Guesses on over/under 2 inches of snow (10:1 map) at ORD? I’ll guess…under! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Our Canadian friend spreads what little wealth there is around, but its a continuation of the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 hours ago, michaelmantis said: So for my family who is in total panic about Christmas travel being a nightmare, (and looking to me as the family weather nerd) how much does this mean impact wise in N IL? NWS explains it all ..... you can tell them this truth, and take the heat off you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS starting now after a half hour delay. Guesses on over/under 2 inches of snow (10:1 map) at ORD? I’ll guess…under! Well through 42 its a dead nut copy of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFS is looking a lot more NAM-like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Low is 1008 over milwaukee at 54 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: When its all said and done, todays sofla event might be bigger than the midwest event. There is a low moving across the gulf, giving us rain and choking the moisture feed for the midwest system. NWS Miami @NWSMiami @NWSWPC has placed all of South Florida in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. This means that isolated flash flooding is possible, especially in vulnerable urban locations. Why are we discussing FL weather in here at all? Totally irrelevant. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS starting now after a half hour delay. Guesses on over/under 2 inches of snow (10:1 map) at ORD? I’ll guess…under! Well, GFS at 60hrs has 2.8 at ORD. So I’m wrong…for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Street said: Why are we discussing FL weather in here at all? Totally irrelevant. because it affects the endgame for this system up here. weather is not your backyard only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Plumes at the end of their range for GRR are still fun. You know, the office that refuses to issue a wsw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Idk.. GFS just looks confused now. Like it doesn't know quite what to do with the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Yep GFS is an unmitigated disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 FWIW the low moving on shore now has overperformed in terms of snowfall across southern BC, Vancouver region has 8-12 inches after a forecast of 3-6, and here inland (north of Spokane at the border) we also have 6-8 with same forecast. The low is just south of Bellingham WA with a leading wave near Spokane. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Our Canadian friend spreads what little wealth there is around, but its a continuation of the trend. This is a decent outcome but probably high end of expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said: because it affects the endgame for this system up here. weather is not your backyard only. Actually, we're discussing it because you had another dumbass comment to make about you taking a vacation. The fact that weather down there affects weather up here is secondary. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Low is 1008 over milwaukee at 54 nice dry slot for mke. i bet they don't get 1" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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