Nbarth20 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 First time posting in here. Although the trend was not favorable for the western lakes last night if you look at the ensembles you can see there is clustering to the west of the mean, so I would not rule out a shift back west during the day today. Not saying it will definitely happen, but we have all seen this happen before. Regardless, a high impact blizzard is nearly a lock for the majority of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The 6z euro likely is again more progressive than 00z. The SE ridge at 500mb is not as amplified again, which prevents our piece of energy from digging as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 wheels really falling off now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: wheels really falling off now Yea I’ll say this trend is worrisome for Michigan and Indiana as well. Need it to completely reverse at 12z otherwise this becomes a standard moderate event, which fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: wheels really falling off now Shades of poof magic 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Going to be incredible waves on lake Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1-4 with blowing snow for the LOT service area, happy holidays from santa claus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Here's the 0z EPS mean total QPF. Pretty much a carbon copy of the 12/18 0z run, interestingly enough. The runs between these two were more generous with the 0.50-0.75" shading farther west in IL. MI has added a bit, BTW, probably owing to the eastern shift/later developing tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Gonna have to bump my final call down to 2.3” here in the paign. Nothing but a glorified December 2012 the way things stand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I don’t know why everyone is so down. We still have the 36 hour HRRR to look forward to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Me: Next time, don’t get too excited until some sampling occurs. Ignores advice with the very next storm system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: I think we need to focus on member MBN4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: The WSW for northern illinois is in jeopardy to be honest. Good Luck the rest of the season, my trip to to chgo appears to be with limited fanfare and thats ok...hurricane season is right around the corner, lol. The trend is definitely not Northern Illinois' friend. BTW, this is why the hurricane center never deviates from their watch/warning criteria regardless of holidays or other subjective criteria, its all science and zero deviation ever. They do have a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" package at their disposal for situations where it hasn't developed but has shot at hitting land. Potential Winter Storm would have been good for LOT yesterday. A high wind event isnt a Winter Storm and that's where this heading. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Ah, we’ve entered the soul crusher part of the cycle. I’m going back to bed until Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Now it's a tough call on advisories. Between general snow advisory or blizzard. Doesn't really qualify as WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, jlauderdal said: The WSW for northern illinois is in jeopardy to be honest. Good Luck the rest of the season, my trip to to chgo appears to be with limited fanfare and thats ok...hurricane season is right around the corner, lol. The trend is definitely not Northern Illinois' friend. They'll keep it in place simply for "holiday travel" Yeah...that's the ticket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: I think we need to focus on member MBN4 mean @ 5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks pretty much like a front for those of us in IL. 1-3/2-4” seems like a good call right now. It is what it is. Folks in IN and MI still holding on to hope. Hope no more slips east for them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: mean @ 5 lol Spread has the 3-6” look and that’s probably where it’ll stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 fun while it lasted, see you all in early february 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: fun while it lasted, see you all in early february perfect timing for the LRC to bring us another big dog 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Well that was fun. Multi-season final 48hr trend will not be denied. I will take my 2-4 and enjoy the white Chris over the usual warm and brown turd sandwich we are typically served. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, magoos0728 said: They'll keep it in place simply for "holiday travel" Yeah...that's the ticket! This afternoon if this trend continues, there shouldn't be a wsw just because of holiday travel....i could make case there are more people travelling around northern illinois on a normal workday then during the holiday when people are sitting at home on their arse hitting refresh on this board.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Well that was fun. Multi-season final 48hr trend will not be denied. I will take my 2-4 and enjoy the white Chris over the usual warm and brown turd sandwich we are typically served. 2 is far more likely than 4 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 This won't be needed, at least for me. Important Information regarding your upcoming flight Severe winter weather conditions across the Midwest may cause disruptions to our operation, including flight delays or cancellations. As of now, there are no changes to your itinerary. We will notify you if this occurs. We are happy to offer customers with flexible travel plans the opportunity to fly on a different day or connect in a different city at no additional cost. To review options, visit the My Trips section on the United app or united.com. If your travel has been booked with one of our airline partners, we recommend reviewing their travel guidelines to determine options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I'll be brutally honest. BAM nailed this potential of a secondary low development yesterday and really stuck to their guns of a snow field that is now being projected by all the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: This afternoon if this trend continues, there shouldn't be a wsw just because of holiday travel....i could make case there are more people travelling around northern illinois on a normal workday then during the holiday when people are sitting at home on their arse hitting refresh on this board.. As long as winds are very strong & blowing snow will cause visibility to drop to 1/4 mile, there will be a Blizzard Warning even if only 1-2 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well that was fun. Multi-season final 48hr trend will not be denied. I will take my 2-4 and enjoy the white Chris over the usual warm and brown turd sandwich we are typically served. I think ratios will pull out 3-6” but splitting hairs. Might as well just go with that for my final call across LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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