Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Add the 0z GFS to the list from a few posts up. The SE/delayed amping trend is strong, for now.Add the 0z GEM to the list as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Powerball said: Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible. We'll all get some fun, just look at the Accu-map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rchm2375 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible. What is a weenie run? Sorry, I have no idea what any of this means, and am fascinated watching you all discuss this trying to get any info I can out of it. Thanks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 CLE .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The impacts from the low pressure increase dramatically over Christmas weekend, with accumulating snow, strong winds, and bitter cold all on the table. Confidence in the timing/track of the upper-level closed low and associated surface low begins to improve on this surface low as we begin to see more and more run-to-run consistency. There is decent agreement on the general track as the upper-level closed low moves east across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and back north to just south of the Georgian Bay by Christmas Eve. The surface low is expected to make a similar trajectory as the upper-level low, though may briefly retrograde into central-lower Michigan on Friday before moving north. Continued intensification of the low is expected on Friday with general model consensus having the surface low bottoming out around 970 mb by 00Z/Sat. An intense cold front will move across the area Friday morning, causing a rapid temperature drop, very strong winds, and a transition of rain to snow. Because numerous hazards are expected with this system, each of these hazards will be discussed in greater detail separately below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, rchm2375 said: What is a weenie run? Sorry, I have no idea what any of this means, and am fascinated watching you all discuss this trying to get any info I can out of it. Thanks! Weenie run meaning it's likely too generous with the snowfall amounts, as well as how widespread those snowfall amounts will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, RogueWaves said: Almost no difference for far SEMI between Kuchie and SLR. Tells me our snow will be wetter. At least initially. Fluff to follow-on via LM Yeah, should make a thick crust of ice/slush beneath. Travel will be a nightmare. Nice hearing from you, been a minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Don’t worry Detroit and Indy crew, plenty of time for tomorrow’s 12z suite to bring ‘er back 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Or for it to end up going back west a bit, Chicago usually has the magnet Would say Detroit more so than Chicago last several winters. Although when it does snow has favored southside of Chicago and LES bail out for downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Don’t worry Detroit and Indy crew, plenty of time for tomorrow’s 12z suite to bring ‘er back Jan '99 gave Detroit her front side. Dec '22 gonna give us her backside 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Would say Detroit more so than Chicago last several winters. Although when it does snow has favored southside of Chicago and LES bail out for downtown LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Hah that’s funny. Where da RFD posters at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Bonus on the GFS, shows a decent clipper on the heals of the departing system. Starts Sunday evening and drops a few more inches across southern Minnesota, most of Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana. Brings more moisture and lift into the DGZ for the LES belts - even with the disturbance passing south of the lakes, enough to squeeze another 1-3” for western lower Michigan, maybe more. Still a long way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA Can someone bring up map of those totals. Pretty sure it was LES hit and southside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Add the 0z GEM to the list as well..As well as the 0z UKMET.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Can someone bring up map of those totals. Pretty sure it was LES hit and southside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I stand in error. Although that must have been one of the best snows for NW areas out towards Rockford of the season. RFD only had 21.9" total last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cary67 said: I stand in error. Although that must have been one of the best snows for NW areas out towards Rockford of the season. That was a kickass storm over here. Several positive surprises and no marginal temps or mixing. It kicked off that legendary deep and cold February. Most events since then have been kind of klunkers north and northwest of the city. Let’s hope this one has some happy surprises too. Sometimes an arctic airmass nearby can help make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 00z GEFS shifted east as well, with the mean track over Cleveland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Powerball said: 00z GEFS shifted east as well, with the mean track over Cleveland. Looks more like Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just saw another image. See let's talk winter thread. Just north of Sandusky over the lake.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry said: Looks more like Detroit? From the Ohio Thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 UKMET is MI centric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA That particular storm did. It also gave Chicago some near record snow depths in Feb 2021. But for the most part, Detroit has had the better luck the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: From the Ohio Thread: Yeah.. See my reply above.lol Too bad it's trending weaker with the eastward shift.. ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI. First call 3-5" with some wind afterward. (I'll clarify by saying at this juncture I am confident in at least 3-5", not that we cant potentially get more) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Harry said: Just saw another image. See let's talk winter thread. Just north of Sandusky over the lake.. What the hell is the SWC and what drug were they on when they posted that best guess low track map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI. First call 3-5" with some wind afterward. It was all downhill after last night's GFS/ICON extravaganza. Luckily by this morning I had already accepted our fate that the big dog threat was over for the dvn cwa. Like many have said at least we'll get some cover for a nice white Christmas for once lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hoping it trends a little more stronger in the future runs, everyone deserves something from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: It was all downhill after last night's GFS/ICON extravaganza. Luckily by this morning I had already accepted our fate that the big dog threat was over for the dvn cwa. Like many have said at least we'll get some cover for a nice white Christmas for once lol. We still may see blizzard conditions with the arctic front, but anything truly noteworthy (like that is still talked about years later) for our area is probably off the table. What is interesting is that the low track actually ends up being quite favorable, it's just that on these runs tonight, the surface low is hardly existent as it transits IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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