Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Notable changes on the 0z NAM... Ridging both ahead and behind the main through is flatter, and the main through does not dig as much. Makes sense that run turned out the way that it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said: NAM had some drinks Use it for upstream guidance within it's wheelhouse (12-48hrs) I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 lol at the NAM. A glorified arctic front for everyone except (maybe) Northern MI... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Notable changes on the 0z NAM... Ridging both ahead and behind the main through is flatter, and the main through does not dig as much. Makes sense that run turned out the way that it did. 0z RGEM will continue the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 0z ICON east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like a solid 2-4” for Toledo with 3-6” around Defiance and the western border counties. It’s going to be pure awesomeness to see that front roll through with that amount of cold and wind. Good time to be in Northern IN, NE Illinois, and really all of Michigan and Wisconsin. True definition of a blizzard in every sense, would not be shocked to see severe thunderstorm level gusts when this thing really begins to bomb out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z ICON east of 18z. How can you tell its stuck at 63 on tropical tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I see now. Yeah way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Notable changes on the 0z NAM... Ridging both ahead and behind the main through is flatter, and the main through does not dig as much. Makes sense that run turned out the way that it did. 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM will continue the trend. 24 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z ICON east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: The changes we saw with the 12z suite (Even part of the 6z suit) made sense, given what's going on in the larger scale. Overall, there has been a trend towards less digging of the trough as it moves through the Western/Central US, due to some changes over the Pacific and up in Canada. This leads to a somewhat weaker storm system initially, later deepening, an eastward shift in track and a loss of some of the more significant solution output. A thing to watch is if this trend continues or is reversed over the next 24 hours or so. As we continue to move through today and tomorrow, more sampling of all of the moving pieces will occur. By the time we reach tomorrow evenings 0z runs, we should have a locked in idea on how it will all go down. Not a good start re: this for the 0z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 @SteboI told you not to punt! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: More west to east movement of slp, but yet precip doesn't quite follow that Chang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: I never thought id say this but I miss the nw trend days. More often than not, they meant sleet and rain for mby, but atleast there were respectable snowstorms with legit deformation snows. It seems the last 4-5 yrs, it's been positively tilted garbage, with a few dropping respectable amounts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I never thought id say this but I miss the nw trend days. More often than not, they meant sleet and rain for mby, but atleast there were respectable snowstorms with legit deformation snows. It seems the last 4-5 yrs, it's been positively tilted garbage, with a few dropping respectable amounts. Dunno how you can be so negative, we're gonna get a good amount of snow no matter what and blizzard conditions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Not a good start re: this for the 0z suite. So for my family who is in total panic about Christmas travel being a nightmare, (and looking to me as the family weather nerd) how much does this mean impact wise in N IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 lol at the ICON. Detroit and Indy reeling it back in!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Add the 0z GFS to the list from a few posts up. The SE/delayed amping trend is strong, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I dunno, it kind of looks like an occluded mess as it gets abeam of Lake Michigan… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It finally starts bombing out over Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like I'm in the mix now with Storm (Blizzard)watch for 4-8" and 55mph winds from Wed pm thru Sat am. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 For the weenies… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 More realistic, though ratios are cut due to high winds shredding the flakes.. 10:1 still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: For the weenies… Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible. I can guarantee I'll be in one of those pockets with significantly less than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Lol another 2 days of runs for this to move further SE and weaker. Original 1-3" for NW burbs looking good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Despite the shift I’m still in the bullseye. I’m holding my breath on every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: More realistic, though ratios are cut due to high winds shredding the flakes.. 10:1 still snowing. Almost no difference for far SEMI between Kuchie and SLR. Tells me our snow will be wetter. At least initially. Fluff to follow-on via LM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Lol another 2 days of runs for this to move further SE and weaker. Original 1-3" for NW burbs looking good Or for it to end up going back west a bit, Chicago usually has the magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: More realistic, though ratios are cut due to high winds shredding the flakes.. 10:1 still snowing. And that doesn't even take into account LES following it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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