RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Nice to see other Peeps crying over bad runs. Carry on.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12z EPS remarkably consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Ya’ll can come spend Festivus here in South Bend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Widespread 8-12" across LOT's CWA. Seems like a win for a big chunk of this sub considering the pressure gradient. If two weeks ago i said he you get a white xmas and 50 mph winds, you would have been doing back flips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 need an RC or Chi Storm analysis on the 12Z runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Regardless of eventual placement, the trend to wrap up slower likely prevents Iowa from cashing in on something truly special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Baum said: need an RC or Chi Storm analysis on the 12Z runs. "It's gonna wobble around for another day or so" blah blah blah" Haha, I'm just messing. I appreciate their insights too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, AppsRunner said: This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong. If it's the GFS, then yes. Everyone rides it when they like what they see and trashes it when they don't. When the ECMWF has a bad run in someone's back yard it's . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 18z NAM better show 36" somewhere or I'll be disappointed... what else is the 18z NAM good for, anyway? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, Baum said: need an RC or Chi Storm analysis on the 12Z runs. The changes we saw with the 12z suite (Even part of the 6z suit) made sense, given what's going on in the larger scale. Overall, there has been a trend towards less digging of the trough as it moves through the Western/Central US, due to some changes over the Pacific and up in Canada. This leads to a somewhat weaker storm system initially, later deepening, an eastward shift in track and a loss of some of the more significant solution output. A thing to watch is if this trend continues or is reversed over the next 24 hours or so. As we continue to move through today and tomorrow, more sampling of all of the moving pieces will occur. By the time we reach tomorrow evenings 0z runs, we should have a locked in idea on how it will all go down. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 59 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z EPS remarkably consistent liking that number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Surprised to see Winter Storm Watches already hoisted for the Twin Cities. 5-10” of snow and wind gusts to 55mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Surprised to see Winter Storm Watches already hoisted for the Twin Cities. Event underway there in about 48 hours or less, so it makes sense. The surprising one is IND already going with a WSW. I'm guessing they're giving more than usual lead time, given the upcoming holiday travel period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 LOT just pulled the trigger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Surprised to see Winter Storm Watches already hoisted for the Twin Cities. 5-10” of snow and wind gusts to 55mph The real shocker is that IND has pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Watches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: Seems like a win for a big chunk of this sub considering the pressure gradient. If two weeks ago i said he you get a white xmas and 50 mph winds, you would have been doing back flips. I'm not sure I'd say a big chunk when the majority of the Ohio valley misses out on this run! Hoping it trickles back east or my dreams of a white Christmas may be shattered. Last one we had was in 2010! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: LOT just pulled the trigger I wonder if there was some talk between offices to get it out there early across the board due to the travel impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 NAM looks like it might be doing NAM things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I wonder if there was some talk between offices to get it out there early across the board due to the travel impacts. I was thinking this was a big factor. I’ve got a flight out of MSP 6am Saturday morning, long after impacts in my area are through, but I’m sure I’ll be offered a voucher anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 18z NAM did come a bit further SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Actually no mention of totals in the watch text: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Falling and blowing snow may result in white out conditions with zero visibility at times, making travel extremely difficult, if not impossible. Power outages will also be possible as a result of strong damaging wind gusts to 55 mph. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero are likely during the height of the storm. Wind chills of this magnitude can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: 18z NAM did come a bit further SE. Has the low ping ponging all over IL and IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: 18z NAM did come a bit further SE. Then ends up way west going straight up lake michigan. NAM gonna NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Then ends up way west going straight up lake michigan. NAM gonna NAM That made me laugh not gonna lie the last 2 especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 DVN, MKE, MSN enter the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, mimillman said: LOT just pulled the trigger 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Then ends up way west going straight up lake michigan. NAM gonna NAM maybe they saw the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfan40 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Baum said: maybe they saw the 18Z NAM Special weather statement up for SW Ontario too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GRR really late on their AFD, very interested in their thoughts. Must be tough for them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, Street said: I'm not sure I'd say a big chunk when the majority of the Ohio valley misses out on this run! Hoping it trickles back east or my dreams of a white Christmas may be shattered. Last one we had was in 2010! I said considering the pressure gradiant, snow amounts will be weak in most areas but you put big winds on a few inches of snow you get black ice, power outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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