OHweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just looking at the last several Canadian and GFS runs, seems like the general waveguide over the US isn't changing much, but changes upstream/downstream of our trough over Canada are influencing how quickly the system goes negatively tilted and can really wrap up... GFS: Canadian: The two areas I'm focused on are the lobe of the PV near Hudson Bay, which on the GFS and Canadian has gradually trended west/weaker in recent runs. This could allow heights to rise more aggressively in front of our storm, supporting a quicker wrap-up and stronger "cut". However, the other area is the lobe of the PV over northwestern Canada and how it interacts with the +PNA ridge trying to pop on the west coast. In today's 12z runs, that has trended farther west, leading to a flatter ridge. This nudges the base of the trough causing the storm a bit farther east/northeast, supporting a slightly slower wrap-up. I feel like the trend for the Hudson Bay lobe of the PV to be weaker/farther west has been more consistent (a nod in the "amped" direction) but the trends over western Canada have not, so that could continue to go either way and lead to subsequent adjustments. I doubt we see wholesale changes to the setup, but the exact max snow amounts and where that swath occurs can trend both west/heavier and east-northeast/lighter. A very high floor set-up as with such a strong trough closing off aloft, with Arctic air involved, a lot of areas will get strong winds and some amount of snow/blowing snow (even if it isn't a lot of snow farther east of the low track). 7 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looking $$$ That’s either going to bust too low or bust too high. So I guess I’ll take the != 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 But It's also the ukieThe Ukie was outstanding with Ian, a rare win but in a very complex setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 0Z CIPS. Decent list..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Nelson said: 0Z CIPS. Decent list..... GHD 1 and GHD 2 analogs got me actin' up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: GHD 1 and GHD 2 analogs got me actin' up And '79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Nelson said: 0Z CIPS. Decent list..... Ignorance here: Is this a list of storms that are comparable to the current one? Kinda like how you can compare current baseball players of similar statistics with hall of famers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Ignorance here: Is this a list of storms that are comparable to the current one? Kinda like how you can compare current baseball players of similar statistics with hall of famers? Yes, basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Slightly stronger ridge along and just off the West Coast seems to be letting the storm tilt negative a bit slower than the 00z at Hour 78 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro looks like another big run for Chicago depending on when the low starts bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 You referring to the incoming Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Frog Town said: You referring to the incoming Euro? 12z thats running now, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Low on top of 00z basically and cuts back in western QPF shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, mimillman said: Low on top of 00z basically and cuts back in western QPF shield Tracks from Paducah to South Bend. Pretty classic landing spot for a significant chicago storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Would expect watches hoisted with tomorrow afternoon’s package following 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10:1 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Widespread 8-12" across LOT's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Weird 12z EURO run, but it ended up being a modest hit for a lot of folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss48192 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Looks like another big snowstorm middle finger for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Precip map liking Alek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, BigHoss48192 said: Looks like another big snowstorm middle finger for SE MI. FWIW, the 12z EURO and GGEM would still be a decent event (4-6" with blizzard conditions). That's not too bad, especially in time for Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Gotta love the relative dry pocket up through southeast Iowa where we get stuck in between an initial good band of snow to the nw and the organizing main system well east. That is showing up on other models as well. The whole trough is just getting kicked eastward too quickly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Definitely a wound up storm but getting weaker on QPF every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: Definitely a wound up storm but getting weaker on QPF every run. Not surprising and it has more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Definitely a wound up storm but getting weaker on QPF every run. Wirh the trough not digging as much and a slower negative tilt, it makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12z Euro is almost a 974 low party off Alpena,MI. Really hope it wraps in the cold fast enough for all snow and maybe nudge SE in SLP location,then I'd be buried! I'll take my 6"and be happy (that's what she said!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Powerball said: FWIW, the 12z EURO and GGEM would still be a decent event (4-6" with blizzard conditions). That's not too bad, especially in time for Christmas. Over here in the GTA I would take 2-5" with 50mph gusts every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, BigHoss48192 said: Looks like another big snowstorm middle finger for SE MI. If the East trend continues later we could end up good, just depends where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: 10:1 Euro nice dry slot in SE WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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