A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Coming east Also weaker (thus far) Edit -. Not by much as it really wraps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Malacka11 said: We got clowned on hard tbh Now we just wait till the nam isn't in aneurysm range and we're set. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Snow totals decrease and heaviest totals move north and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Also weaker (thus far) Then explodes > spins in SW Michigan > occludes. That's some sexy stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, tuanis said: Then explodes > spins in SW Michigan > occludes. That's some sexy stuff. Sure does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 12z guidance trend has been to have the trough move into the region further north initially, leading to a delay in when things amp up.In turn you get a bump east in the track and a weaker storm system initially. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 At hour 54 on the GFS it looks like it's now seeing some stronger energy in NM that looked to be on the GEM and Euro all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Natester said: Big shift east on the 12z GFS. The GFS doing GFS things, euro and gfs will be in sync by tomorrow night...SLP east of chicago, Lower michigan gets drilled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 To a certain extent, once your above 4” accumulation is not going to massively change sensible weather conditions. It’s going to be a blizzard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Canadian definitely taking longer to ramp up and ending up quite a bit east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong. Good analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: To a certain extent, once your above 4” accumulation is not going to massively change sensible weather conditions. It’s going to be a blizzard. exactly. It’s very rare we get this kind of wind field. I’ll take 4-8” getting whipped by 55-65mph winds. Polar Vortex Blizzard dropped 8” with 45mph winds and it was a disaster. Not sure what Champaign will ultimately receive snowfall wise, it’s looking blizzard like regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The main trend with all the models the past 24 hours that the trough is ejecting more slowy and not digging as far south, thus the somewhat weaker but further west solutions we're starting to see. The main impact this will have is whether the storm wraps up quickly enough to become a major event for most in the subforum, or does it revert back to being a glorified arctic front, which is what was advertised before we started seeing these weenie runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: To a certain extent, once your above 4” accumulation is not going to massively change sensible weather conditions. It’s going to be a blizzard. Yes.. This is why applaud LOT's verbiage and deemphasizing amounts at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 With the weaker trend, are ratios greater than 10-1 on the table for parts of the sub-forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Canadian is team Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Ill take it, im sure it will change some more but looking like a nice synoptic hit with backend les for my area by both GFS and Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Still a ton to love. Even the weaker guidance has a neat 8-12 for much of N IL this run, and combining that with crazy winds would be really fun to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Still a ton to love. Even the weaker guidance has a neat 8-12 for much of N IL this run, and combining that with crazy winds would be really fun to see. Agreed. The risk here is that it doesn't bomb out until it's north east of here, giving upper Michigan the huge hit. But either way it's looking like a white Christmas and will be fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 On 12/18/2022 at 4:33 AM, A-L-E-K said: Going with a long duration 5 imby final call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Wraps up pretty nicely on the ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Wraps up pretty nicely on the ukie But It's also the ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Agreed. The risk here is that it doesn't bomb out until it's north east of here, giving Northern Michigan the huge hit. But either way it's looking like a white Christmas and will be fun to watch True. I'd probably evaporate instantly if somewhere east of here actually does end up pulling several feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Wasn't GHD 2 showing a similar setup 4- 5 days out? but ultimately turned more of a west to east trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looking $$$ Over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: To a certain extent, once your above 4” accumulation is not going to massively change sensible weather conditions. It’s going to be a blizzard. That’s my goal 4-6 with blizzard. I’m in my upper 20s and want to experience a true blizzard even tho totals are lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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