jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: It might not settle down until WednesdayIt Yep, I would think by midday tomorrow we can hit the track with a 50 mile error on either side out to 48 hours..something to the right of the latest gfs and to the left of the latest euro...starting to look like more of a wind event than a blockbuster precip but you get a big multiplier effect when you include the high winds which this one will produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 mystery met weighs in: "The gfs has gone west while the Euro has gone east. The fun and games continue. I think the GFS is to far west. I like a storm track from STL to DET right now. Travel west of the storm track will likely be shut down for a time. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baum said: mystery met weighs in: "The gfs has gone west while the Euro has gone east. The fun and games continue. I think the GFS is to far west. I like a storm track from STL to DET right now. Travel west of the storm track will likely be shut down for a time. " Mystery met taking a blend and thats a good idea at this time....his track makes sense although DET seems to far east(splitting hairs) for the actual COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 52 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Cant win em all, at least those euro runs were fun to look at I’ve picked out an Airbnb in Dubuque just in case… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 They finally changed the forcast from " a lttle snow" lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 NAM range begins today for all the real heads 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 We already know the 84hr NAM (in its typical fashion) is going to be a MSP special, lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Gfs wagons west. Lol. Low party for me. Nam will probably track low west of IL  will this be start of permanent nw trends or will we see se corrections as we get closer? I think we will see gfs correct se. But a very amped system would end up more nw. But I think gfs is unrealistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: NAM range begins today for all the real heads 6z was going well west at the end of its clown range. RGEM too, but maybe not as far west. All FWIW. Regardless, I agree with RC about the GFS and not just because its a rainer IMBY now. It kept pulling the historic totals with the Feb system last winter, which was obviously wrong in the end. I mean I guess there's still a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. December is not usually our (locally) prime time for widespread 12"+ amounts. It's usually January and February. Still, this whole thing has a major vibe to it because of the high wind and extreme cold aspect to it...even if the top amounts are only, let's say 12-14". Even areas that see 4-6" will have a wild ride with the cold/wind part. If I had to pick the locales for the bigger snows right now, I'd go KC up through cyclone's/hawkeye's BY and then up thru WI. Subject to change of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The only constant is the GFS volatility. With this being so close to the holidays not necessarily wanting a storm that shuts the place down through the weekend anyways. As mentioned before usual qpf trimming as event nears vs some of those runs last night likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Yikes quite the west jump as I check in this morning. This is going to have us all not sleeping next few days especially as high res models come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I suppose it’s time to turn on the MSP magnet. Going to be a distracted workweek tracking this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6z Euro appears a bit stronger/bump E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, NEILwxbo said: 6z Euro appears a bit stronger/bump E. If by stronger you mean weaker, yes. Agree with the bump east though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 If 12z runs hold/bump east, gonna start to get excited.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I suppose it’s time to turn on the MSP magnet. Going to be a distracted workweek tracking this. No soup for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I suppose it’s time to turn on the MSP magnet. Going to be a distracted workweek tracking this. Your not kidding. I work for the power company and I’m on my own 90% of the time in my own work truck. I’m sitting at my site now on my iPad when I should be on my tough book lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 For sh*ts and giggles, the 6z ICON went east and buries Chicago with 20"+. And my previous post wasn't trying to be sour grapes because MBY isn't in the bullseye anymore. Just trying to have some perspective with this whole situation. Historic storms happen, no doubt about it, but they're also pretty rare for a reason. Alas, hope I'm wrong and some people on here are measuring drifts to their roof lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The 6z euro took a 75 mile jog east and is less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: The 6z euro took a 75 mile jog east and is less amped. it's over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I’ve never done a early call before but SLP tracks over Indy past south central and SE mich with the low going on a more ENE track vs a NE at least when it hits GL region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Funny I was team euro before but now euro is like my dream crusher model. It's definitely not getting a frisky with the sfc low as quick as gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The SE and weaker trend has been around for years now it seems. How many storms over the last few years have turned from huge to almost nothing in the last 48 hours of model tracking? Will this be another one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, roardog said: The SE and weaker trend has been around for years now it seems. How many storms over the last few years have turned from huge to almost nothing in the last 48 hours of model tracking? Will this be another one? It's happened with almost every potential (12+) the last 3 years atleast. This time tho there will be a legit storm somewhere. My money's on Chicago up to traverse city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6z Euro doesn’t look to weaker to me. It’s a tick or two stronger with the slp at 90 hours versus the 0z run at 96. It’s east a bit for sure. I guess QPF is a bit less, but otherwise I think the run would deliver similar results to the 0z run. I mean it’s no GFS, but…yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GRR from last night Quote -- Growing concern for blizzard-like conditions Friday -- We continue to see impressive run-to-run model continuity in the depiction of the upcoming storm. As noted previously, Thursday`s precipitation type is a bit in question ahead of the main system. Given cold surface temperatures and strong lower tropospheric theta- e advection, freezing rain looks quite possible and even a bit more plausible than snow during the day and into evening. Ground temperatures might be able to warm above freezing by the afternoon commute but this is far from certain. Thus, a coating of glaze for the Thursday evening commute is a distinct possibility. Then, starting Thursday night, things get really interesting. In both the 18/12Z and 19/00Z runs of the ECE, a sizable majority of members show explosive cyclogenesis of a surface low originating from the mid-MS valley region and moving northeast into Lower MI or possibly eastern WI. Forecast deepening of the surface low Thursday night is unbelievable. The entire ensemble mean drops about 8 mb between 00Z and 06Z Friday and both the ECMWF and Canadian deterministic runs show a drop of 20 mb between 00Z and 12Z as the low center pulls into Lower MI. We continue to see evidence of a large TROWAL accompanying this explosive cyclogenesis. Copious snowfall associated with the TROWAL would likely be juxtaposed with very strong winds and apparent temperatures dropping into the single digits by early Friday afternoon. If this scenario were to pan out, we would be well into blizzard territory by Friday afternoon. This would be followed by a prolonged period of significant lake enhanced snow lasting most, if not all, of Christmas weekend. Obviously, a lot still can change between now and the end of the week. But, we have observed that the entire model suite has been extraordinarily consistent with this system, strongly suggesting greater than average predictability at this time range. The WPC cluster analyses seem more locked into a solution too. To illustrate, the 18/12Z WPC analysis showed cluster 1 alone explaining about 43 percent of the total ensemble spread and its membership is almost entirely ECMWF and Canadian ensemble members. This is not surprising given how much in lockstep these ensembles have been with this system in general. So, there is increased cause for concern, certainly more than there was at this time yesterday. Probabilities for a very impactful system at the end of the week into the holiday weekend are now uncomfortably high. Accordingly, now is the time to start thinking about preparing for this possible scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 WPC Winter Storm Index, for those interested 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6z euro ensemble also East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Michigander said: GRR from last night I literally just read that. Definitely taking notice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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