Frog Town Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I notice the NAM is a bit slower with the SLP at 84 hours. Would this argue towards a further East solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: I notice the NAM is a bit slower with the SLP at 84 hours. Would this argue towards a further East solution? Lots of factors at play, but slower gives the lead wave time to scoot out allowing for our wave to intensify. So slower evolution is probably a stronger, more north solution 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Frog Town said: I notice the NAM is a bit slower with the SLP at 84 hours. Would this argue towards a further East solution? I wouldn't worry too much about extrapolating the 84 hour nam lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 It wouldn't be a real snowstorm threat without running the gamut of highest-quality models... I can't buy into this until the NAVGEM comes into alignment with the Korean and JMA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: It wouldn't be a real snowstorm threat without running the gamut of highest-quality models... I can't buy into this until the NAVGEM comes into alignment with the Korean and JMA Is it North Korean or South Korean? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Interesting that DTX calling this "straightforward" Quote In other words, at this point, it seemslike a relatively straightforward upper level pattern within whichthis winter storm will evolve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Interesting that DTX calling this "straightforward" The evolution is straightforward, the location isn't yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Interesting that DTX calling this "straightforward" Definitely playing it reserved I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: The evolution is straightforward, the location isn't yet. There were zero "null" outcomes iirc was some other portion. I read that as "not a matter of if, just where" as you say. 18z GFS was a real loser here, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not sure if they do them since the pandemic, but with the holiday travel next week, would the NOAA try to add extra aircraft sampling for this storm?They (NCEP) may ask for extra RAOB soundings at 06z and 18z. It's pretty common for that to be done before east coast blizzards in addition to always being done before potential landfalling hurricanes. Don't remember if it was done for GHD I and II. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Definitely playing it reserved I thought DTX has had way more detailed write-ups than some other offices tbh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: They (NCEP) may ask for extra RAOB soundings at 06z and 18z. It's pretty common for that to be done before east coast blizzards in addition to always being done before potential landfalling hurricanes. Don't remember if it was done for GHD I and II. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Pretty sure it was for GHDI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Hi Folks - long time lurker, first time poster - unsure if this is the right forum to ask. Just switched a family member's flight into ORD from Friday AM to Thursday AM to hopefully get ahead of this. Wondering if I could get one of your educated opinions if that was the right move as of now. Thank you!I think Thursday morning is a possibility, depending on how much preemptive cancelations are done so that planes don't get stuck at ORD. Wednesday would be safer. I know for a fact that preemptive cancelations are done for big snowstorms, but exactly when that starts probably varies. I wish I knew for sure, but wondering if flights with no connecting flights after arrival at ORD would be more likely to be canceled early than flights that connect to another airport not long after. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think Thursday morning is a possibility, depending on how much preemptive cancelations are done so that planes don't get stuck at ORD. Wednesday would be safer. I know for a fact that preemptive cancelations are done for big snowstorms, but exactly when that starts probably varies. I wish I knew for sure, but wondering if flights with no connecting flights after arrival at ORD would be more likely to be canceled early than flights that connect to another airport not long after. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk not to trivialize....but 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 For SEMI Crew. This recent update from CLE might as well be for us. Presuming the SLP tracks overhead or slightly NW, we will get the treatment CLE got with '78. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- All eyes remain on the intense storm system expected to impact the entire Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions Thursday into the start of the holiday weekend. The main messages, as well as the most certain aspects of this event, continue to be rapidly falling temperatures late Thursday night through Friday leading to rain changing to snow and a flash freeze, damaging winds, and extreme cold, both in terms of actual air temperature and wind chill, that will worsen through the day Friday and Friday night. What is more uncertain is how much snow will fall once the rain changes to snow on Friday with differences in model guidance giving ranges from a few inches to over a foot. It is important to note that no matter how much snow falls on Friday, the damaging winds with this system (likely topping 60 mph given the rapidly intensifying low and extreme cold advection), will blow the snow into drifts and easily create white out conditions. It would only take a few hours of falling snow to realize true blizzard conditions with that wind and the rapidly falling temperatures. When you combine that with dangerous wind chill values worsening as the day wears on, this will be a very dangerous storm no matter what. Those with travel plans on Friday should be flexible and stay tuned to the latest updates. We will transition to lake-effect snow behind the system as it lifts north through Ontario Friday night and Saturday, lingering through Sunday, but uncertainty with wind direction (west vs southwest) makes it impossible to pinpoint if the bands will impact NE Ohio and NW PA or if they will stay in western NY. What is certain is that bitter cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will continue through the weekend with highs in the teens Saturday and Sunday and lows well into the single digits both nights. Wind chill values may get as low as -15 to -20 early in the weekend. Now for a little more on the evolution of the storm, today`s 12Z model runs have actually reverted back to being out of sync with each other. This is unfortunate because it makes the timing of the rain/snow changeover and the amount of snow we will receive highly uncertain; even more uncertain than 24 hours ago. The big mid/upper trough and associated pool of arctic air, originating in Siberia, digs into the Plains Thursday. As it does, a 160+ knot H3 jet diving into the base of the trough will cause it to tilt strongly negative while cascading into the Midwest Thursday night while will lead to a rapidly deepening surface low somewhere in the vicinity of Indiana or western Ohio. Because the trough axis deepens all the way to the Gulf coast, it will also scoop up additional southern stream energy late Thursday. This will further aid in the deepening process allowing the northern and southern streams to phase over the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will result in a rare "bombing out" of the surface low to take place right over our area as the mid/upper trough closes off, with the whole system then pinwheeling north through the central Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. It is the bombing out that has us so concerned about damaging winds once the arctic front plows through the area. Most guidance has the low at least reaching the sub 975 mb range as it lifts just north of our region, so this very tight pressure gradient combined the jet energy and intense cold air advection will easily support 60+ mph wind gusts. This will down trees and power lines and result in widespread power outages, which is a worst case scenario given the extreme cold. In terms of the snow, today`s 12Z guidance is making this even more uncertain due to timing and track differences. The new GFS came in a solid 6 hours slower and now phases the system over the Ohio Valley/lower lakes Friday afternoon. This would delay the rain to snow changeover to almost midday Friday, with the heaviest snow potentially not falling until Friday evening. The ECMWF maintains a late Thursday night phasing and keeps the changeover to snow consistent with the Friday morning timing, but it tracks the low across west Michigan which would bring a dry slot into the area after an initial burst of snow, with heavier snow from the trowel not arriving until later in the day. The RGEM is in the middle with timing, but it tracks the low toward the eastern Great Lakes as it bombs out through the day Friday. This solution would give us the most snow but may lessen the winds slightly. Any of these solutions will lead to snow, high winds, and brutal cold developing Friday into Friday night, but the amount of snow that actually falls is the biggest question mark. To summarize, warm air advection ahead of the deepening trough Thursday will warm temps into the upper 30s, so precipitation driven by broad warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent will fall as a rain/snow mix, with rain being the dominant p-type Thursday. Rain will rapidly change to snow late Thursday night or Friday morning, depending on timing of the arctic front, with a burst of snow and flash freeze likely. Winds will steadily increase Thursday night from the SE and become damaging by Friday morning as they veer to the W to SW in the cold advection behind the front. Snow will fill back in at some point Friday morning or afternoon after a lull behind the initial burst, with blizzard conditions possible through the day and extensive blowing/drifting, even though exact snow amounts are in question. Temperatures will fall through the teens Friday afternoon and will continue to fall through the single digits Friday night with dangerous wind chill values. The synoptic snow will transition to pure lake-effect Friday night through Sunday east of Cleveland, but to what extent the main band gets into our region remains unclear. It is possible that a SW component to the wind keeps it mainly over western NY most of the weekend, but lingering wind and arctic cold will keep conditions hazardous. -- End Changed Discussion -- && 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: For SEMI Crew. This recent update from CLE might as well be for us. Presuming the SLP tracks overhead or slightly NW, we will get the treatment CLE got with '78. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- All eyes remain on the intense storm system expected to impact the entire Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions Thursday into the start of the holiday weekend. The main messages, as well as the most certain aspects of this event, continue to be rapidly falling temperatures late Thursday night through Friday leading to rain changing to snow and a flash freeze, damaging winds, and extreme cold, both in terms of actual air temperature and wind chill, that will worsen through the day Friday and Friday night. What is more uncertain is how much snow will fall once the rain changes to snow on Friday with differences in model guidance giving ranges from a few inches to over a foot. It is important to note that no matter how much snow falls on Friday, the damaging winds with this system (likely topping 60 mph given the rapidly intensifying low and extreme cold advection), will blow the snow into drifts and easily create white out conditions. It would only take a few hours of falling snow to realize true blizzard conditions with that wind and the rapidly falling temperatures. When you combine that with dangerous wind chill values worsening as the day wears on, this will be a very dangerous storm no matter what. Those with travel plans on Friday should be flexible and stay tuned to the latest updates. We will transition to lake-effect snow behind the system as it lifts north through Ontario Friday night and Saturday, lingering through Sunday, but uncertainty with wind direction (west vs southwest) makes it impossible to pinpoint if the bands will impact NE Ohio and NW PA or if they will stay in western NY. What is certain is that bitter cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will continue through the weekend with highs in the teens Saturday and Sunday and lows well into the single digits both nights. Wind chill values may get as low as -15 to -20 early in the weekend. Now for a little more on the evolution of the storm, today`s 12Z model runs have actually reverted back to being out of sync with each other. This is unfortunate because it makes the timing of the rain/snow changeover and the amount of snow we will receive highly uncertain; even more uncertain than 24 hours ago. The big mid/upper trough and associated pool of arctic air, originating in Siberia, digs into the Plains Thursday. As it does, a 160+ knot H3 jet diving into the base of the trough will cause it to tilt strongly negative while cascading into the Midwest Thursday night while will lead to a rapidly deepening surface low somewhere in the vicinity of Indiana or western Ohio. Because the trough axis deepens all the way to the Gulf coast, it will also scoop up additional southern stream energy late Thursday. This will further aid in the deepening process allowing the northern and southern streams to phase over the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will result in a rare "bombing out" of the surface low to take place right over our area as the mid/upper trough closes off, with the whole system then pinwheeling north through the central Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. It is the bombing out that has us so concerned about damaging winds once the arctic front plows through the area. Most guidance has the low at least reaching the sub 975 mb range as it lifts just north of our region, so this very tight pressure gradient combined the jet energy and intense cold air advection will easily support 60+ mph wind gusts. This will down trees and power lines and result in widespread power outages, which is a worst case scenario given the extreme cold. In terms of the snow, today`s 12Z guidance is making this even more uncertain due to timing and track differences. The new GFS came in a solid 6 hours slower and now phases the system over the Ohio Valley/lower lakes Friday afternoon. This would delay the rain to snow changeover to almost midday Friday, with the heaviest snow potentially not falling until Friday evening. The ECMWF maintains a late Thursday night phasing and keeps the changeover to snow consistent with the Friday morning timing, but it tracks the low across west Michigan which would bring a dry slot into the area after an initial burst of snow, with heavier snow from the trowel not arriving until later in the day. The RGEM is in the middle with timing, but it tracks the low toward the eastern Great Lakes as it bombs out through the day Friday. This solution would give us the most snow but may lessen the winds slightly. Any of these solutions will lead to snow, high winds, and brutal cold developing Friday into Friday night, but the amount of snow that actually falls is the biggest question mark. To summarize, warm air advection ahead of the deepening trough Thursday will warm temps into the upper 30s, so precipitation driven by broad warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent will fall as a rain/snow mix, with rain being the dominant p-type Thursday. Rain will rapidly change to snow late Thursday night or Friday morning, depending on timing of the arctic front, with a burst of snow and flash freeze likely. Winds will steadily increase Thursday night from the SE and become damaging by Friday morning as they veer to the W to SW in the cold advection behind the front. Snow will fill back in at some point Friday morning or afternoon after a lull behind the initial burst, with blizzard conditions possible through the day and extensive blowing/drifting, even though exact snow amounts are in question. Temperatures will fall through the teens Friday afternoon and will continue to fall through the single digits Friday night with dangerous wind chill values. The synoptic snow will transition to pure lake-effect Friday night through Sunday east of Cleveland, but to what extent the main band gets into our region remains unclear. It is possible that a SW component to the wind keeps it mainly over western NY most of the weekend, but lingering wind and arctic cold will keep conditions hazardous. -- End Changed Discussion -- && CLE has the friction off Lake Erie to enhance the wind there, and of course even if they miss out on the synoptic snow, they're bound to make up for it with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 You know there’s something good being tracked when you can basically feel the nervous tension before 0z (and 12z) models start releasing. It’s glorious! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: You know there’s something good being tracked when you can basically feel the nervous tension before 0z (and 12z) models start releasing. It’s glorious! Im definitely curious once I get to work/ job site in the am to see. Love it this time of year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: CLE has the friction off Lake Erie to enhance the wind there, and of course even if they miss out on the synoptic snow, they're bound to make up for it with LES. That's for their entire CWA, not just downtown city of Cleveland. Did I need to tell SEMI Peeps the obvious that the LES talk meant Lake Erie? The winds are to be strong not just along the lakeshore(s) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Im definitely curious once I get to work/ job site in the am to see. Love it this time of year I dont think there's much doubt that this thing is only gonna trend even more west. I'm getting ghd1 vibes. Unless the weaker/se trend of recent years rears its ugly head, and in that case I wouldn't want it. I hope someone in the region gets a big dog, even if its not for my semi crew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 FWIW, the ICON has jumped a good bit more west tonight.... now tracks the low OVER Chicago, which brings the strong defo zone back into eastern Iowa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 FWIW, the ICON has jumped a good bit more west tonight.... now tracks the low OVER Chicago, which brings the strong defo zone back into eastern Iowa.Definitely a plausible outcome for this storm. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: FWIW, the ICON has jumped a good bit more west tonight.... now tracks the low OVER Chicago, which brings the strong defo zone back into eastern Iowa. Perfect, I love being in the middle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Going with a long duration 5 imby final call Can't get this one out of my head, given Alek's propensity for pulling wins out of his backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Perfect, I love being in the middle That's what she....im sorry. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Can't get this one out of my head, given Alek's propensity for pulling wins out of his backside Like his "miss south stank" for one of our recent Wisconsin specials Edit: He also said that this feels like it really might be the one fwiw a day or two ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Climo sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Looks like the 00z GFS is going to end up even further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GFS way west. Gonna be another cutter before long lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Bye storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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