Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

[SolidIcewx]

[jlauderdal]

Bit deeper, and a bit further west. At the IL/IN border at 114

The happy hour gfs going with more intensity, need to stop the westaward movement for the naperville crush job

[homedis]

Crush job. Still snowing in IN/MI.

Feeling pretty good with Chicago’s central position in the main swath of snow considering a 100 mi shift to the west would keep us locked in and a 100 mi shift to the east, LES would still help inflate totals.

[Sciascia]

2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

My wife drives an hour into Itasca every day for work. Idk if she’ll be able to come home on Thursday night; and based on those winds, Friday night seems questionable as well. Luckily there’s a hotel 3 minutes away from her job if that should happen.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, Sciascia said:

My wife drives an hour into Itasca every day for work. Idk if she’ll be able to come home on Thursday night; and based on those winds, Friday night seems questionable as well. Luckily there’s a hotel 3 minutes away from her job if that should happen.

I’m not sure much travel is happening until Sunday or Monday if these maps verify 

[DaveNay]

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The wind can just F off.

[Amped]

Hopefully airlines are canceling flights already.  If the GFS verifies  STL, IND, MDW, ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT will have a ground stop  at some point on one of the busiest travel days of the year.

[MJO812]

Congrats guys

I'm so jealous this shifted west.

Have fun

[schoeppeya]

Fingers crossed the westward trend stops here in Indy… that run actually takes the low south of the city just dry slots it pretty hard. I’m sure there would be some once in a lifetime type weather transitions if the low goes right overhead. 

[Chicago916]

Not sure if they do them since the pandemic, but with the holiday travel next week, would the NOAA try to add extra aircraft sampling for this storm?

[Sciascia]

23 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’m not sure much travel is happening until Sunday or Monday if these maps verify 

I’m going to suggest to my wife asking/begging for a work-from-home setup for Friday. Thursday would be a *long* commute but it seems the absolute worst of the storm will kick in after 10pm Thursday.

[luckyweather]

Hopefully airlines are canceling flights already.  If the GFS verifies  STL, IND, MDW, ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT will have a ground stop  at some point on one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Def high impact but I think that’s a little premature. I personally have a flight at 6pm Friday out of ORD and am getting pretty nervous but I’d be pissed if UA cxl’ed the flight at this stage. Tuesday AM I think is the earliest we’ll see any actual schedule changes if things stay steady as progged in short range window.

[KokomoWX]

The duration of winds well past the Christmas weekend is pretty amazing besides the snow.  I am riding the current eastern edge and hope for a shift back east before this begins.  The NW trend is not my friend.

[SnowInChi]

Hi Folks - long time lurker, first time poster - unsure if this is the right forum to ask. Just switched a family member's flight into ORD from Friday AM to Thursday AM to hopefully get ahead of this. Wondering if I could get one of your educated opinions if that was the right move as of now. Thank you!

[jlauderdal]

Hi Folks - long time lurker, first time poster - unsure if this is the right forum to ask. Just switched a family member's flight into ORD from Friday AM to Thursday AM to hopefully get ahead of this. Wondering if I could get one of your educated opinions if that was the right move as of now. Thank you!

Thursday am is unlikely to go, im flying in weds morn, that might not go

[Sciascia]

8 minutes ago, SnowInChi said:

Hi Folks - long time lurker, first time poster - unsure if this is the right forum to ask. Just switched a family member's flight into ORD from Friday AM to Thursday AM to hopefully get ahead of this. Wondering if I could get one of your educated opinions if that was the right move as of now. Thank you!

Thursday AM is the start of things around the Chicago area, but I think there should be some flights allowed to be done; but don’t quote me. Friday would likely be cancel heavy if this verifies. You did the right thing, imo.

[homedis]

Yeah I just told a friend to change their flight ORD to CLE from Thursday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. Regardless of what happens I told them saving the headache of cancelled flights/possibly being stranded from spending christmas together with family is not worth waiting it out.

[steve23guy]

25 minutes ago, homedis said:

Yeah I just told a friend to change their flight ORD to CLE from Thursday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. Regardless of what happens I told them saving the headache of cancelled flights/possibly being stranded from spending christmas together with family is not worth waiting it out.

Right, this is gonna be something straight out of planes trains and automobiles for anyone trying to travel towards chicago this week 

 

[Cartier God]

I'm scheduled to work here in Lansing Thursday and Friday, and I was planning on driving home to Detroit Friday evening. Something tells me my schedule will be changing. 

[Sciascia]

2 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

I'm scheduled to work here in Lansing Thursday and Friday, and I was planning on driving home to Detroit Friday evening. Something tells me my schedule will be changing. 

My job added two non-production days to our schedule this week, so I’m off until Jan. 3rd starting Wednesday instead of Friday. Turning out to be a major blessing in disguise with the timing of the storm, although it sucks massive jingle bells that they won’t be paid off days.

[Kaner88]

Back in Chicago for the holidays, looking forward to the landcane

[HurricaneTracker]

6 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Back in Chicago for the holidays, looking forward to the landcane

Same here. My parents live in Aurora and my in-laws live in Princeton, IL in central Bureau County. I am visiting them starting Tuesday. Supposed to be in Aurora early Saturday morning. I may be stuck…somewhere in N IL this week…

[Baum]

When was the last time we tracked a potential monster within 5 days of Christmas in the central midwest, east of the big river? 

[Frog Town]

Again, you can't let the Operational(especially the GoFuS) get you down.  The ENS of that model actually has the SLP going over CLE.  This would still provide the Sub with an awesome storm.  This should start to tighten up in about 36 hours.  Patience..

Last night 18Z GFS had it over PIT

 

[whoosh]

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

If consistency continues on this scenario, we in the NWS are really gonna have to hit the message hard about this being a life threatening blizzard, with incredibly cold temps for a system of this nature. Barring a big change in the evolution, the probability is increasingly high for the main swath to see extreme impacts. That's despite it being mainly a Thursday PM-Friday event.
 

which with all appreciation and gratitude I as a close NWS/LOT watcher, was yesterday delighted to see the office publish a Story tab about this event, and noted that it was removed today. .... though checking at this moment before posting I see that it has returned. Short of that lapse, LOT has had excellent messaging about this. Thank you all.

At the same time, I have close friends who just don't monitor weather at all; they just deal with whatever happens; it gives them stories to tell.

[ChiTownSnow]

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

If consistency continues on this scenario, we in the NWS are really gonna have to hit the message hard about this being a life threatening blizzard, with incredibly cold temps for a system of this nature. Barring a big change in the evolution, the probability is increasingly high for the main swath to see extreme impacts. That's despite it being mainly a Thursday PM-Friday event. Have to give the overall run to run consistency of the Euro some credence at this point.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I will also add that the specific verbiage used now holds more weight, as over the last few years LOT has used their words very responsibly and carefully.  

[Imneversatisfied]

Well this potential storm has finally made me come out of hiding. I've been lurking for over 10 years including the old forums! Every winter I come to read the analysis from everyone,to see the maps and better my weather knowledge.The banter is great entertainment as well! I live in Alpena,MI which is near the mitten's index finger right on Lake Huron. In the future I will try to post often with reports in my area. Over the past 15 years of weather watching for my area, I dont recall a sub 975mb low taking this projected path and potentially burying me in an epic Christmas blizzard that I have always dreamed of.I'm expecting 12"+ and 40+mph winds. Some "clown maps" even show 37.9in??? Lol Either way I'm a 36 year old feeling like a kid again. Just wish I had a snowmobile...

 

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, LansingWeather said:

Did you used to live in Battle Creek? I think that's what I remember

Marshall, about 10 mi east. Speaking of BC I wonder when we will hear from Harry. He stands in a good position to add another trophy storm alongside last month's

[SolidIcewx]

13 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Well this potential storm has finally made me come out of hiding. I've been lurking for over 10 years including the old forums! Every winter I come to read the analysis from everyone,to see the maps and better my weather knowledge.The banter is great entertainment as well! I live in Alpena,MI which is near the mitten's index finger right on Lake Huron. In the future I will try to post often with reports in my area. Over the past 15 years of weather watching for my area, I dont recall a sub 975mb low taking this projected path and potentially burying me in an epic Christmas blizzard that I have always dreamed of.I'm expecting 12"+ and 40+mph winds. Some "clown maps" even show 37.9in??? Lol Either way I'm a 36 year old feeling like a kid again. Just wish I had a snowmobile...

 

Always glad to see another come along. I was one a couple years ago. Nice share of wealth hopefully for most

[frostfern]

I kind of hate being right in the bullseye when it's still 100 hours out.  It's bound to wiggle one way or another.  A shift slightly NW would still be good if it really goes negative-tilt and the stacked low ends up due north.  Wrap-around WSW-flow lake effect can really make up for the dry slot in this area.  SE shifts seem more common at this range though.  I so wish I could lock this exact run in.