jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 because it affects the endgame for this system up here. weather is not your backyard only.Post of the day, you beat me to it..to understand what is happening, you must look beyond your CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep GFS is an unmitigated disaster. It was initially headed in the direction of a NAM solution, but ended up being just a slightly version of the 06z run. EDIT: Slightly stronger... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Actually, we're discussing it because you had another dumbass comment to make about you taking a vacation. The fact that weather down there affects weather up here is secondary. I'm sorry once this storm passes, there's zero chances for a good system in the next 15 days. Pacific air floods the country. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: I'm sorry once this storm passes, there's zero chances for a good system in the next 15 days. Pacific air floods the country. Wait...is this thread for once the storm passes? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Frontal passage really moving up in time here. Looks to be Thursday afternoon now. Still may get a high end advisory snow on Thursday with some wicked blowing snow and frigid temps Thursday night and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Wait...is this thread for once the storm passes? I thought this storm was already over? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, Street said: Why are we discussing FL weather in here at all? Totally irrelevant. It's rained 2 out of the last 3 days down here in Fort myers. Pretty rare for this time of year. Kinda happy this fell apart, didn't wanna spend hiked Xmas airline prices to fly home to Detroit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 You know, if you just look at this through the unrealistic Kuchera maps, it still looks like a solid event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: You know, if you just look at this through the unrealistic Kuchera maps, it still looks like a solid event! I honestly think that the wind excuse for the kuchera is overused a bit. And if system becomes a little flatter it doesn't wrap up as much. It may not be as windy as first thought Less snow and more wind Or More snow less wind 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12z GFS still looking good for NE lower MI. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Congrats lake michigan! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Still looks decent for Eastern WI. I'd be more than happy with 6" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I honestly think that the wind excuse for the kuchera is overused a bit. That would be a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, TravisWx said: 12z GFS still looking good for NE lower MI. I'll take it. Norther Mi and West/SW Mich does pretty good, screws over most of the forum/users so we are in the very small minority here. I wont even post the kuchera rendering lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 NWS as well as WGN still hitting the message hard for Chicago. WGN graphic still shows 10 inches possible issued as of 6:30 this morning. Worth mentioning that Tom skillings on vacation though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 If I lived in the Chicagoland area, I would consider a road trip to SBN. Short drive, and with ND on break you can probably get a great deal on lodging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said: Still looks decent for Eastern WI. I'd be more than happy with 6" or so. eastern WI isn't getting 2" from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: If I lived in the Chicagoland area, I would consider a road trip to SBN. Short drive, and with ND on break you can probably get a great deal on lodging. SBN still in the game for possible double digit totals. Berrien County, just to our north, might be the best place to get blizzard conditions locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 As expected, GEFS and GFS suck and the latest GEFS (mean snowfall) has brought a decent snow back to Illinois. Some duds in the mix as well as crazy totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Heading after work to fill the gas jugs for the inevitable power outage to run the generator. Will be an interesting Xmas weekend with the in-laws traveling up Would suck trying to find an open gas station during the heart of the storm if i were to run out of gas. With temps plummeting hopefully people have other options for home heating or could be a rough few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 hours ago, Roger Smith said: 06z NAM has the center steadily deepening to 970 mb tracking up western L Huron to near APN MI by end of run 18z Friday and would give sw MI possible 2-3 feet of lake effect snow with 60 mph wind gusts. From that track I think ORD would see 5-8" and that would increase around southern L Mich to 24 inches by Benton Harbor, probably about 18" for SBN mostly lake effect. Storm pulls in Atlantic moisture but probably too late if this model verified, heavy snow for ne ON. Lake Erie squall potential looks high after fropa and could give BUF another heavy fall late 23rd into 24th. Could all change on later guidance of course, but there seems to be no plausible track that would fail to dump very heavy snow in sw MI and n IN. Given the likely temps and wind speeds, long-lead warnings were certainly justified and even 1-3 inches of snow blowing around in those conditions would be very dangerous. Have never seen anything like what Buf NWS has in their forecast discussion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 This storm is looking very impressive for Michigan. Guessing most roads in the northern half of the state will become impassible on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: yup, beach house. I had no problem with Tampa - lived there 2.5 years until 2019. Of course, choose your area wisely as with anywhere. It was close enough for me to gravitate to St. Pete Beach a couple of evenings during the week and Anna Maria Island on Sundaze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Watching this one from out West. Stoked for the folks back home. FWIW, we're just waking up to a 10-12" storm here in Southern BC; the same energy thats going to spin up the big system out east. Quite an over-performer here (forecast 6-8") and it turns out a CMC/ECMWF blend was more accurate than the GFS a few days out. Do with that information what you will! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 there's something strange with the COD 12Z GEFS output. Burying Illinois and Wisconsin with a huge amount of snow on Friday evening and Saturday morning with the low pressure moving very slowly. ETA: I think it is displaying the 12Z model run from yesterday, which explains why the low looks about 24 hours behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Both NAM and GFS look a bit off in their handling of the short wave rounding the base of the trof, they seem to be trying to develop the eventual low out of the leading wave and trof in place ahead of the energy and they suppress the short wave as a sort of last piece of energy for the southeast U.S. cold front. I think earlier model runs may have had a better depiction with the energy rounding the base of the trof deepening over MO and IL rather than this concept of the low forming in IN and moving to MI. Either way all of the expectations for MI, sw ON, wNY snow belts would verify but there may be a better (worse for public) outcome for WI and IL, maybe even IA and MO. Later model runs (perhaps starting with 12z Euro) may start to drift back to the earlier more intense solutions. I can't see how the overperforming start here would translate into a weaker short wave rounding the base after DEN gets a brief blizzard tonight and Wed a.m., would expect a snowstorm to develop in OK and s KS as the low drops into Texas. I think it will stay more of a dominant feature rather than getting absorbed into some developing low way out ahead of the main energy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 There is still time to tick this back to something significant, but it’s 3rd and 25 from our own 10 yard line. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: eastern WI isn't getting 2" from this. I'm glad you've got it all figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: There is still time to tick this back to something significant, but it’s 3rd and 25 from our own 10 yard line. And Rex Grossman has the ball. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: There is still time to tick this back to something significant, but it’s 3rd and 25 from our own 10 yard line. I mean, Justin Fields ran for 39 yards on 2nd & 27 this past Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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