Baum Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 IZZIED. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Brutal AFDs from wx offices yesterday if this one ends up crapping the bed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, King James said: Brutal AFDs from wx offices yesterday if this one ends up crapping the bed. They working with mostly the same data we are, it is what it is and they have to take stand at some point and they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, King James said: Brutal AFDs from wx offices yesterday if this one ends up crapping the bed. RC, please have Izzi save his write up & put it in a drawer. That way, he can break it out when something great comes along. Thundersnow, 1-2 feet, all those things that were fun to read. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: They working with mostly the same data we are, it is what it is and they have to take stand at some point and they did. As it stands they jumped the gun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, King James said: Brutal AFDs from wx offices yesterday if this one ends up crapping the bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, King James said: As it stands they jumped the gun Tough thankless job tbf. If you nail the call the public thinks “congrats you did your job.” If you call something wrong the public loses faith immediately no matter how good you are 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The scene from South Bend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, mimillman said: Tough thankless job tbf. If you nail the call the public thinks “congrats you did your job.” If you call something wrong the public loses faith immediately no matter how good you are For sure. I think this sub overall felt they jumped the gun and RC alluded to LOT getting pulled into the fray due to other offices wanting to coordinate I just think it’s objectively fair to say that the alarm was sounded too early I appreciate all the Mets who drop in and give us their expert opinions. Can’t win them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Everything is in hindsight of course. I agreed with the call when it happened due to the wind/cold and holiday. But in hindsight, this is not the "olden days" where information takes long to get to the public. It's New Age, with smartphones where nformation is immediately sent to the public and in publics eyes. 1.5-2 days is plenty of lead time now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Everything is in hindsight of course. I agreed with the call when it happened due to the wind/cold and holiday. But in hindsight, this is not the "olden days" where information takes long to get to the public. It's New Age, with smartphones where nformation is immediately sent to the public and in publics eyes. 1.5-2 days is plenty of lead time now 100% this. Not only are warnings and public messages instantly sent its also message boards like this that are quickly spread and taken out of context. Still thinking a watch will be maintained only because of high winds/open areas and holiday travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, King James said: For sure. I think this sub overall felt they jumped the gun and RC alluded to LOT getting pulled into the fray due to other offices wanting to coordinate I just think it’s objectively fair to say that the alarm was sounded too early I appreciate all the Mets who drop in and give us their expert opinions. Can’t win them all Yes, I appreciate RC’s context that they were pulled in early. Not a comfortable position to be in but I could see why some CWAs, perhaps less acquainted to these types of systems, wanted to get an early warning out to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 IMO, a Winter Storm Watch was still the right decision as it is for the *POTENTIAL* of a warning criteria storm (which the potential, fleeting it may be, is still there). If things do completely fall apart, the watch can always be downgraded to an advisory or cancelled. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 wow, what a disaster to wake up to this morning. another storm crapped the bed. at least I'm leaving for Tampa in a few days. palm tree weather coming. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: IMO, a Winter Storm Watch was still the right decision as it is for the *POTENTIAL* of a warning criteria storm (which the potential, fleeting it may be, is still there). If things do completely fall apart, the watch can always be downgraded to an advisory or cancelled. Fair point. But publics perception of a "Watch" is unfortunately not the same as the definition. As well as the verbiage used was intended to hit hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 wow, what a disaster to wake up to this morning. another storm crapped the bed. at least I'm leaving for Tampa in a few days. palm tree weather coming.But it's Tampa for god's sake. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Though the amount of snow that's likely to fall in Illinois and Wisconsin, and possibly Indiana and Michigan, appears that it will be reduced compared to what guidance suggested yesterday, I think trying to do "verification" on a feature 48 to 72 hours before it has even happened seems a bit misplaced. I think some of this commentary would be more valid if, come Friday evening, only a couple of inches of snow, in fact, fell. Since I'll be up in the Fox Valley, I am hoping for a lot of snow, so the recent model trends are just as disappointing to me as they are to many of the rest of you. Just to be clear... 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 wow, what a disaster to wake up to this morning. another storm crapped the bed. at least I'm leaving for Tampa in a few days. palm tree weather coming.hopefully you’re heading elsewhere after arrival.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 With the way this storm has moved around over the past 7 days and gave hopes and dreams of a blizzard from the east coast people to now Chicago,should name it winter storm Grinch or Soulcrusher. Lol I still believe there will be blizzard conditions for most of the great lakes area just due to the intense winds and any amount of snow that does fall. As for my location in Alpena,Michigan it still looks like atleast 8in and 40+mph winds. I'll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Oh my the NAM is a disaster 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 double doink 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Whatever, it's a white Christmas. Unfortunately, I really don't know if I have the energy to get half as excited as I was this time if something arises again in two months. Ever since the first few crazy long range runs hinting at something special for Christmas I've been invested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Malacka11 said: Whatever, it's a white Christmas. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Malacka11 said: Whatever, it's a white Christmas. Unfortunately, I really don't know if I have the energy to get half as excited as I was this time if something arises again in two months. Ever since the first few crazy long range runs hinting at something special for Christmas I've been invested. The "acceptance" stage of grief 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 lol at the 12z NAM. The bleeding continues... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 A thing to watch is if this trend continues or is reversed over the next 24 hours or so. As we continue to move through today and tomorrow, more sampling of all of the moving pieces will occur. By the time we reach tomorrow evenings 0z runs, we should have a locked in idea on how it will all go down.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 That’s, uh, wow. This is like the Colts-Vikings game from Saturday. Everything’s looking great for Indy in the first half, but then Minnesota just winds up winning again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Oh my the NAM is a disaster Understatement of the century... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I’m actually intrigued if this continues, the initial WAA snows should keep drifting south and might be able to save southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 22 hours ago, Powerball said: The main trend with all the models the past 24 hours that the trough is ejecting more slowy and not digging as far south, thus the somewhat weaker but further west solutions we're starting to see. The main impact this will have is whether the storm wraps up quickly enough to become a major event for most in the subforum, or does it revert back to being a glorified arctic front, which is what was advertised before we started seeing these weenie runs. Welp, this might age like wine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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