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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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If consistency continues on this scenario, we in the NWS are really gonna have to hit the message hard about this being a life threatening blizzard, with incredibly cold temps for a system of this nature. Barring a big change in the evolution, the probability is increasingly high for the main swath to see extreme impacts. That's despite it being mainly a Thursday PM-Friday event. Have to give the overall run to run consistency of the Euro some credence at this point.

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20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I think the modern era Festivus hit for DTW is the 8.5" on 12-23-04. I know someone who will gladly correct if I'm wrong. Cue MSF

I may be mistaken, but wasn't that 2002?  I only remember cause I just bought a new house and was up all night painting.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

If consistency continues on this scenario, we in the NWS are really gonna have to hit the message hard about this being a life threatening blizzard, with incredibly cold temps for a system of this nature. Barring a big change in the evolution, the probability is increasingly high for the main swath to see extreme impacts. That's despite it being mainly a Thursday PM-Friday event. Have to give the overall run to run consistency of the Euro some credence at this point.

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How would this Chicago storm compare to 1967, 1979, 1999? More wind and power outages I assume. Can’t wait for Tom Skilling and WGN forecast maps.

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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If consistency continues on this scenario, we in the NWS are really gonna have to hit the message hard about this being a life threatening blizzard, with incredibly cold temps for a system of this nature. Barring a big change in the evolution, the probability is increasingly high for the main swath to see extreme impacts. That's despite it being mainly a Thursday PM-Friday event. Have to give the overall run to run consistency of the Euro some credence at this point.

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What air temps did we have for GHD1? I assume this is much colder. Would be some seriously life threatening conditions with the progged cold if we end up with another LSD parking lot 

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Verbatim the 12z Euro has the QC in the negative single digits below zero early Fri morning with 55mph winds and falling snow.  That would put wind chills pushing -40.  That combined with significant blowing snow in open country would likely make for extremely dangerous travel conditions to say the least.

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If the low occluded early like the gfs shows that could keep some of the warmth away. Something to watch as well. Also when the low comes north is in question too. Also the depth of digging is in question. The certainty is that this will be a significant to historic storm and it is for this region.

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16 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

I'm not excited either, one thing that has a bit of optimism going for me is the OP, CS doesn't make fantasy threads or overhype. I always pay attention when he starts them. Still remember the monster clipper from accuwx days, he started the thread less than 48 hours out when no one else had mentioned it,  it had WSWarnings from IA into OH with 6"+ totals, had to have been '07-'09 or thereabouts. Miss the historical data that site had in it. Forever lost.

 A little off topic here: I may be able to access several resources regarding winter storms in that time period (I saved a lot of images, plus there are other resources online.) Not sure what you were thinking of

Meanwhile...

GFS Ensemble member 19 has 2.5" water equivalent for Chicago, so I'm rooting for that. the ECMWF ensemble members max out at 1.64"  total water equivalent for Chicago.

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