RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate. I'd imagine somewhere between 10-15:1 because the DGZ will be deep, offset by the high winds. The Kuchera ratios are definitely way too high because there's no limiting factor with such a cold air mass, and no accounting for the fracturing dendrites by the wind. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Really, given the last couple years the fact the ground is white is a win. Anything above that is gravy. Plenty of time to reel this one in #weenie 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Going with a long duration 5 imby final call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Final call time, huh? 11" imby with 50+ wind gusts along with temps crashing to single digits. Krampus is coming... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Are Blizzard conditions possible Thursday through Friday? I wonder if conditions will be bad enough that the state police prohibit travel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 lookin good. Major midwest / greatl lakes snowstorm with high winds and bitter cold still on the table for Christmas week. It's been a awhile....... ONE TREND THAT'S EMERGED ON THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH OVERALL CONTINUES THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS TUNE, IS THE PRESENCE OF A FEW MEMBERS NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY-DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS CUTTING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING, INDICATIVE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PHASING WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE ENTIRE GEFS ENVELOPE HAS BEEN EVER-SO-SLOWLY TICKING WESTWARD, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. THE REST OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SUITE/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOTING NO REAL MATERIAL CHANGE FOR A 130+ HOUR FORECAST FROM THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH HAS THUS FAR REMAINED AMONG THE MOST CONSISTENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE). THIS ALTOGETHER HASN'T REALLY CHANGED THE OUTLOOK PICTURE THAT MUCH, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS HONING IN ON THE MAIN SWATH FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WEST TOWARDS OUR LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITHOUT A MORE FULLY-PHASED SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW (AND EVEN SYSTEM-PRECEDING FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED SNOWFALL) AND A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DOSE OF WIND IN THE LOCAL AREA SEEMS TO BE IN THE CARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Going with a long duration 5 imby final call conservative, but good early call IMHO from this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I'll take the 6z gfs please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, michsnowfreak said: I'll take the 6z gfs please. Would be one for the history books in Detroit, for sure... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 One thing to consider with this storm is with the upper level low possibly closing off and maybe a decent trowal setting up, there will be good convective instability in the cold sector. So despite the wind fracturing dendrites some, the snowfall rates should be enhanced and there will likely be some aggregation of snowflakes near the transition zone, which should both aid in relatively efficient accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'll take the 6z gfs please. Probably not going to get any better for mby either so lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, hoosierwx said: Probably not going to get any better for mby either so lock it in. Thought this one might draw you out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'll take the 6z gfs please. 7” of snow just south of St Louis followed by lows on Christmas Eve morning in the negative single digits and single digit temps at Midnight Mass with 2-day old snowpack?!? I won’t tempt the Almighty or Santa or anyone else by asking for anything more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, The Ole Bucket said: 7” of snow just south of St Louis followed by lows on Christmas Eve morning in the negative single digits and single digit temps at Midnight Mass with 2-day old snowpack?!? I won’t tempt the Almighty or Santa or anyone else by asking for anything more than that. BTW this is just using the 10:1 ratios. I won’t even peek at Kuchera, since that’s fantasyland surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6z GEFS run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Question.. given that it is around the holidays, when do you think winter storm watches would be hoisted? I would assume giving the situation, a bit earlier than normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: Thought this one might draw you out! It's rare for Indy to see a white Christmas. Doing my annual forum crawl as well after seeing the models lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 If this storm pushes ORD past 5.3 inches of snow for December, it’ll be the snowiest December in Chicago since 2016 when 17.7” fell. The last 5 Decembers have been: 1.9”, 2.8”, 2.0”, 1.4”, and 5.3”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: 6z GEFS run Definitely ticking west a bit as a few more members jump on the “more amped” train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Now let’s see the euro in a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I'll take the 6z gfs please. Damn right that one is good for us around dtw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12z GFS rolling now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I’ll post gif when fully available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Wave digging a bit further south and a touch deeper. Going to likely be coming west gonna be a nice run for Chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Looking more west I agree very deep dive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Oyez oyez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 A 987mb Low going through Indy is a near perfect track for N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Wave digging a bit further south and a touch deeper. Going to likely be coming westThe digging further south is kind of a mirage.The main wave is more so coming in digging a bit further west, with better trough tilt. Also a bit more ridging ahead of the wave/trough across the Eastern US, and better separation between the main wave/trough and the lobe in S Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Low is 50 miles west of the previous run. Baby steps west and capitulation to the euro continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Goes NNE then cuts right more NE over west Lake Erie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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