jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Looks weird,looks like some tilted system down into the gulf states into Alabama then the energy gets transfered into east of the Cumberland,but its been showing this,who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GfS is a western jog as expected. Given the fact we have 5 days left about the only place I'd be feeling good about is western Illinois/mizzou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bigbald said: GfS is a western jog as expected. Given the fact we have 5 days left about the only place I'd be feeling good about is western Illinois/mizzou. Gfs has been ticking east since 12z. it may not be 2feet across the entire state but this isn't over. We have a LONG time before it's completely set. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bigbald said: GfS is a western jog as expected. Given the fact we have 5 days left about the only place I'd be feeling good about is western Illinois/mizzou. Not seeing the western jog. Looks East to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bigbald said: GfS is a western jog as expected. Given the fact we have 5 days left about the only place I'd be feeling good about is western Illinois/mizzou. If,if the GFS is right like John said you'd have a potential deformation band on the NW/W side of that low,west Tn would do well 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I’m still getting March vibs from this. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Not seeing the western jog. Looks East to me Sorry had the 18z in toggle. It is east of 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 With the DGZ literally on the ground I will be extremely curious to see how Meso Models handle the NW aspect of this event. In uncharted territory as far as my NW experience here. Could be single digits and NW flow. The only negative is it's relatively short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 With the DGZ literally on the ground I will be extremely curious to see how Meso Models handle the NW aspect of this event. In uncharted territory as far as my NW experience here. Could be single digits and NW flow. The only negative is it's relatively short lived.How saturated is the DGZ? How low?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: With the DGZ literally on the ground I will be extremely curious to see how Meso Models handle the NW aspect of this event. In uncharted territory as far as my NW experience here. Could be single digits and NW flow. The only negative is it's relatively short lived. yeah but if it puts stress on the power grids might not be short livedLast thing you want is power outage from rain and wet snow,then wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How saturated is the DGZ? How low? . Looks completely saturated all the way to the surface at 141 for instance. The DGZ is at the surface as noted. When that happens you'll see little ice crystals floating down even if the sky is blue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Looks completely saturated all the way to the surface at 141 for instance. The DGZ is at the surface as noted. When that happens you'll see little ice crystals floating down even if the sky is blue. Yeah don't think the DGZ level means a whole lot really but still crazy to be on the surface in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 This would be some decent snow as you head into the Cumberland upslopes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, John1122 said: Looks completely saturated all the way to the surface at 141 for instance. The DGZ is at the surface as noted. When that happens you'll see little ice crystals floating down even if the sky is blue. Happened in 1985……. Remember seeing them through the sun and blue skies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GEFS AND GFS are on the same page seemingly,just a tad maybe progressive 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Will we have a white Christmas in Memphis this year? What's the chance of getting snow for Christmas in Memphis? Well, what does history say about Memphis' chances for snow? Take a look - here's the weather that's happened on Christmas Day in Memphis for the past 147 years.... Records that go back to 1889 show that Memphis had a measurable amount of snow on Christmas only once in 133 years. That was in 1913 when 3.5 inches of snow fell on Christmas Day (1.4 inches was on the ground at 6:00 a.m. that day). Trace amounts (only a few flakes - not enough to measure), fell on 11 occasions - 1914, 1918, 1926, 1939, 1948, 1975, 1980, 1992, 2009, 2010, and 2012. There has been a few times when there was snow on the ground Christmas morning (from previous storms). The greatest was 1963 when 10 inches covered the city Christmas morning; 1962 and 2004 had 2 inches on the ground, 1998 had 1 inch on the ground, and a trace of snow on Christmas morning in 1897,1966, 1980, and 1990. The warmest temperature for Christmas Day was 77 degrees in 2021; 1983 had the coldest Christmas at zero (0) degrees. While a Memphis snow is rare on Christmas Day, rain has fallen several times. Christmas was rainy 50 times in the last 147 years; sleet (or freezing rain) happened three times. The wettest Christmas Day came in 1987 when 4.24 inches of rain soaked Memphis. Will history be a guide again this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS = Grinch Fools Snowlovers lol 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Is this ok to share? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 06z gfs undid all the positive trends and is now the least snowy it's been lol. Towel has been thrown for me. Let's kick the can another 10 days down the road like we have done since thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: 06z gfs undid all the positive trends and is now the least snowy it's been lol. Towel has been thrown for me. Let's kick the can another 10 days down the road like we have done since thanksgiving Still about the same for me actually while there was a change, it is just one run, I am sure the next one will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: 06z gfs undid all the positive trends and is now the least snowy it's been lol. Towel has been thrown for me. Let's kick the can another 10 days down the road like we have done since thanksgiving The 06z gfs also shows it going from upper 30's at 7am on Dec 23rd to the teens around 1pm O.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 By 7pm on the 23rd, the temps have dropped into the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS super amped and wound up storm. Ends up cutting further west. Looking at a statewide dusting on the backend of this thing now. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 One more step back on the models and all TN will be out of play (except the normal NWSF areas of plateau/mtns). GFS cave to the Euro/CMC almost complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: One more step back on the models and all TN will be out of play (except the normal NWSF areas of plateau/mtns). GFS cave to the Euro/CMC almost complete. Yeah, it's a shame as the GFS did really well last winter. Looks like Euro will win this one. May be the better model for this winter/pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 CMC at 12z vz 00z....feel like the announcer off movie Major League..."juuussst a bit outside" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Will be some nail biting for Michigan, Indiana. But they are in play for a whopper of a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Yep, looking like a rain to flurries for most of us now smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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