Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th

[Daniel Boone]

Desperately need a 50-50 or thereabouts to stop these things from cutting. If not, a further east PNA Ridge. 

[Silas Lang]

Looks like a back end mood flake setup for the valley. 

[PowellVolz]

Because of how cold this airmass is, IMO there’s a 50% chance the outcome hasn’t even been modeled yet. Mods really struggle with air this cold and a active pattern.


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[Matthew70]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Having the ICON climb on board gets me back to 55/45 it is going to happen as the GFS has it.  I think the Euro is playing into some old biases.  @Holston_River_Rambler, what are you doing up so early?  As for me, we had a carbon monoxide detector battery go bad.  The periodic beep was driving us crazy.  LOL.  We have been wondering through the house for about fifteen minutes trying to find which detector was bad.  As any good wx hobby person would do, I sat down and looked at modeling instead of going back to bed.

I always wonder why those cotton pickin things go off at night only. Mine always do it in middle of night. 

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Because of how cold this airmass is, IMO there’s a 50% chance the outcome hasn’t even been modeled yet. Mods really struggle with air this cold and a active pattern.


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Yeah, may rush in soon enough to changeover and still produce measurable snow ❄️

[1234snow]

The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through.

Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything.

I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it.

[snowmaker]

14 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through.

Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything.

I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it.

Still a ways to go before a final solution is settled. By Monday-Tuesday we should have a much better idea. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more back and forth over the weekend. I still think we are all still in the game for snow possibilities before Christmas.

[PowellVolz]

Y’all have battered snow syndrome. This isn’t close to being over and I won’t be surprised to see the GFS go back to what it was showing yesterday and then flip again.


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[Wurbus]

Trends definitely not in our favor right now. GEFS also has trended to more of a cutter solution. Still a ways to go and the only thing that seems set in stone is the extreme cold temps.

[TellicoWx]

Unless something drastic changes near the Hudson Bay...anything that forms is going to cut that way (attacking the weakness between the two Highs). With each "upgrade", it's almost like their is truncation periods around every 72 hr time-frame where larger moves happen.

[matt9697]

Some in the forum area are still in a good spot.

[Dsty2001]

 From 12z the 23rd to 00z the 24th, the temp almost drops 40 degrees.  Not saying it isn't possible as we've all seen drastic temp swings, but wow

[Bigbald]

12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone

[fountainguy97]

Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover. 

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone

Yep, exactly. Get strong west based -NAO and still rain. The ultimate let down.  

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover. 

Insult to injury. Might as well be warm so can get outside some. 

[Dsty2001]

I mean, it's still way to early to throw in the towel.

[snowmaker]

Does anyone know if the euro ensembles look like the 12z control or are they better looking overall?

[Matthew70]

Dry & cold just sucks.  No other way to put it.  Especially when it’s going to be this cold.  Give me warmth over dry & cold. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

21 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Does anyone know if the euro ensembles look like the 12z control or are they better looking overall?

I’ll have access in about an hour to the 12z EPS city charts so if I can I’ll post for some of the cities in the forum area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Before I post anything for the snow city maps, check out the spread of the EPS members for the temps on the 23rd (I picked Chatty since it is typically a warmer spot):

 

Elizabethton:

 

Nashville:

 

Chatty:

Memphis:

London, KY:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Might as well snow good old EPS member 15 in banter too. 

[TellicoWx]

Nice hit west of the plateau on the 18z GFS..think you guys in that area are in a good spot. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS is now completely in the Euro camp(edit...eh sort of...clarifying comments in following posts), and a bit less amped.  It should provide light snow to much of the forum area and really allows west TN and Arkansas and northern MS to score.  

I meant to add this for those who have just come back to the board.  The GFS update which we speak about is not the one from last year-ish.  It was tweeted this past fall again, and hasn't been the same since then.

[Carvers Gap]

18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas.  

[TellicoWx]

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah, time to wake this thread up!  With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look.   With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow.   I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85.  The cold basically just took over the front.  

[Scottie16]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Nice hit west of the plateau on the 18z GFS..think you guys in that area are in a good spot. 

I’m still weary on the models not handling how quick the temperatures will drop. We are going to have some really breezy conditions Mid-Thursday in Friday morning. I’d be happy with a dusting at this point though. 

[matt9697]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, time to wake this thread up!  With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look.   With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow.   I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85.  The cold basically just took over the front.  

Lock it in

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas.  

Yeah, believe those guys are setup good for this system...plus the upslope areas of the plateau/mtns/ne tn. Not quite buying the wound up, cold front passage of the Euro. Between this arctic airmass squeezing out every drop of moisture/ the feed off the lakes..middle/ west TN is the money spot.