Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Desperately need a 50-50 or thereabouts to stop these things from cutting. If not, a further east PNA Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looks like a back end mood flake setup for the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Because of how cold this airmass is, IMO there’s a 50% chance the outcome hasn’t even been modeled yet. Mods really struggle with air this cold and a active pattern. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 9:53 AM, Carvers Gap said: Having the ICON climb on board gets me back to 55/45 it is going to happen as the GFS has it. I think the Euro is playing into some old biases. @Holston_River_Rambler, what are you doing up so early? As for me, we had a carbon monoxide detector battery go bad. The periodic beep was driving us crazy. LOL. We have been wondering through the house for about fifteen minutes trying to find which detector was bad. As any good wx hobby person would do, I sat down and looked at modeling instead of going back to bed. Expand I always wonder why those cotton pickin things go off at night only. Mine always do it in middle of night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 4:20 PM, PowellVolz said: Because of how cold this airmass is, IMO there’s a 50% chance the outcome hasn’t even been modeled yet. Mods really struggle with air this cold and a active pattern. . Expand Yeah, may rush in soon enough to changeover and still produce measurable snow ❄️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through. Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything. I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 4:37 PM, 1234snow said: The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through. Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything. I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it. Expand Still a ways to go before a final solution is settled. By Monday-Tuesday we should have a much better idea. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more back and forth over the weekend. I still think we are all still in the game for snow possibilities before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Y’all have battered snow syndrome. This isn’t close to being over and I won’t be surprised to see the GFS go back to what it was showing yesterday and then flip again. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Trends definitely not in our favor right now. GEFS also has trended to more of a cutter solution. Still a ways to go and the only thing that seems set in stone is the extreme cold temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Unless something drastic changes near the Hudson Bay...anything that forms is going to cut that way (attacking the weakness between the two Highs). With each "upgrade", it's almost like their is truncation periods around every 72 hr time-frame where larger moves happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Some in the forum area are still in a good spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 From 12z the 23rd to 00z the 24th, the temp almost drops 40 degrees. Not saying it isn't possible as we've all seen drastic temp swings, but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 7:01 PM, Bigbald said: 12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone Expand Yep, exactly. Get strong west based -NAO and still rain. The ultimate let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 7:27 PM, fountainguy97 said: Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover. Expand Insult to injury. Might as well be warm so can get outside some. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I mean, it's still way to early to throw in the towel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Does anyone know if the euro ensembles look like the 12z control or are they better looking overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Dry & cold just sucks. No other way to put it. Especially when it’s going to be this cold. Give me warmth over dry & cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 7:38 PM, snowmaker said: Does anyone know if the euro ensembles look like the 12z control or are they better looking overall? Expand I’ll have access in about an hour to the 12z EPS city charts so if I can I’ll post for some of the cities in the forum area. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Before I post anything for the snow city maps, check out the spread of the EPS members for the temps on the 23rd (I picked Chatty since it is typically a warmer spot): Elizabethton: Nashville: Chatty: Memphis: London, KY: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Might as well snow good old EPS member 15 in banter too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Nice hit west of the plateau on the 18z GFS..think you guys in that area are in a good spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS is now completely in the Euro camp(edit...eh sort of...clarifying comments in following posts), and a bit less amped. It should provide light snow to much of the forum area and really allows west TN and Arkansas and northern MS to score. I meant to add this for those who have just come back to the board. The GFS update which we speak about is not the one from last year-ish. It was tweeted this past fall again, and hasn't been the same since then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:17 PM, TellicoWx said: Expand Yeah, time to wake this thread up! With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look. With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow. I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85. The cold basically just took over the front. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:14 PM, TellicoWx said: Nice hit west of the plateau on the 18z GFS..think you guys in that area are in a good spot. Expand I’m still weary on the models not handling how quick the temperatures will drop. We are going to have some really breezy conditions Mid-Thursday in Friday morning. I’d be happy with a dusting at this point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:20 PM, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, time to wake this thread up! With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look. With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow. I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85. The cold basically just took over the front. Expand Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:17 PM, Carvers Gap said: 18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas. Expand Yeah, believe those guys are setup good for this system...plus the upslope areas of the plateau/mtns/ne tn. Not quite buying the wound up, cold front passage of the Euro. Between this arctic airmass squeezing out every drop of moisture/ the feed off the lakes..middle/ west TN is the money spot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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