John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3z RAP was a little better than the 21z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Yet to find a model anywhere showing the ice in Central Kansas. Salina, KS looks like a skating rink with wrecks everywhere from freezing drizzle/fog. Obs reporting .10"-15" so far. Think even out there the models not seeing at ground level very well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: I have 3 limiting factors I've become conscious of, 1) Big A Mountain downslope for NW flow events. 2) Clinch Mountain downslope for Miller A events. 3) Warm air advection heading all the way up the Clinch to my doorstep although less than everyone SE of me. I think the big issue for Grundy is the low elevation, it's hard to flush out the warm air from the maze that is the Appalachian Plateau. That definitely makes a lot of sense. When I was younger and less educated I would get so frustrated because it always seemed like it took a miracle to get snow here. My dad always assured me that it can't snow in (the underworld) to put it PG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Really hoping that the hole in the valley isn't similar to what is happening out that way. Low level moisture trapped at the surface being squeezed out, but the DGZ not quite catching up as quickly as the the temp crash occurs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The GFS had a crazy sharp cut off on a storm last year in a similar place and it happened. I got 5 or 6 inches and Eastern Campbell and Western Claiborne got about an inch. But that was a case where it was snow or rain. There was plenty of precjp around. It was just a ptype issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The clown maps are showing exactly what always transpires down here in anafrontal situations, just to a more extreme extent. I’m not even confident of getting any rain here. Maybe just a few light showers then we freeze to death. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 By 1am, most of the valley's 850s are below freezing, by 7am, the 850s are downright frigid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I'm excited to see this one unfold. The fact that it's all up in Christmas is a nice bonus. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 No idea if it means anything for here, but the Euro is badly missing on snowfall in Southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas. At 00z last night it was giving 1 inch in those areas, 1.5 inches at 12z. They are looking at 3-4+ with 3 hours of blizzard conditions. This is the current OBS there. Their NWS said 3 additional inches look possible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 This was today's 12z Euro run for there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12z GFS forecast for there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: This was today's 12z Euro run for there. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 That Euro was it's snowiest in days since before it was showing a cutter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Well I told you, I relieved myself off the porch and now we have light rain in Athens! It moistened up the atmosphere 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Had a sleet to rain transition there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Honestly. I think the B word could be thrown around. Atleast brief Blizzard conditions. Hrrr has an absolutely ripping frontal passage across the whole state. It won't be much snow but it will be some of the most severe winter conditions most places have seen in a long time. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Jed33 said: The GFS is also getting colder for Friday morning! Seeing a lot of sub zero I40 N I saw Spann got caught off guard tonight when the model showed a 6F/-14.5C for Bham in this outbreak. This must be what you found. He felt the reading was too low. I'm still sticking with 7F/-14C as Bham lowest, which would match Jans '03 & '14. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR is faster with the cold. At 1am tomorrow it has me in the single digits. The 3k NAM has me in the 20s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Looks like the Euro coming in with accumulation was enough to get MRX on board to issue a WWA. The added heavy snow wording to my forecast. They also lowered temps. My forecast is -3 tomorrow night with a high of 3 Friday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I usually like the RGEM but it's on something. At hour 27 it has rain over my area with single digit temps. The temp was in the 20s at hour 24, so no way it's a 3 hour average ptype. It has snow to my west, rain over me and snow to my east. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 A snip from MRX 3rd shift discussion. "I have been forecasting in the Southeast for 23 years, and I have never seen an outbreak of combined cold and wind like this one. This will be a potentially life-threatening cold event if precautions are not taken. Please see our office social media pages for infographics on how to stay safe"Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Front is pretty easy to see on the radar this AM: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Don't have much to add analysis wise, just lurking in the background Figured a model summary for later posterity might be nice Now back to prepping for the arctic tundra CANADIAN Crossville TSY EURO Crossville TYS GFS Crossville TYS In case the images are to small https://ibb.co/dWcNdVZhttps://ibb.co/NthhSXMhttps://ibb.co/Dw1wztYhttps://ibb.co/WBY0gxjhttps://ibb.co/0CZyJtfhttps://ibb.co/QCrHPVb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Don't have much to add analysis wise, just lurking in the background Figured a model summary for later posterity might be nice Now back to prepping for the arctic tundra CANADIAN Crossville TSY EURO Crossville TYS GFS Crossville TYS In case the images are to small https://ibb.co/dWcNdVZhttps://ibb.co/NthhSXMhttps://ibb.co/Dw1wztYhttps://ibb.co/WBY0gxjhttps://ibb.co/0CZyJtfhttps://ibb.co/QCrHPVb Nothing for middle or west folks? SMH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Nothing for middle or west folks? SMH Haha sorry forgot about you guys, I'll add some in a few 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Yes please, I am from Montgomery County. Would love too see one from CKV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Looks like the Euro coming in with accumulation was enough to get MRX on board to issue a WWA. The added heavy snow wording to my forecast. They also lowered temps. My forecast is -3 tomorrow night with a high of 3 Friday. Yeah they added "Heavy snow" verbiage to my point forecast too and I'm in valley. Think all the reports from the plains has them spooked that even with small amounts of snow the conditions could be severe, even Blizzard like at times like as have been seen so far. Places that only got an inch or 2 like Cheyenne still got Blizzard like blowing snow conditions for a few hours.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hrrr is not a fan of eastern areas. Hopefully we see it trend wetter this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hrrr is not a fan of eastern areas. Hopefully we see it trend wetter this afternoon.I think we are going to be stuck in a nowcast situation with this. There have been many things occurring in the plains the last 12 hours that were not modeled correctly even on the hi-res models. Storms of this magnitude don't happen often enough for the models to handle them well.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Hrrr is not a fan of eastern areas. Hopefully we see it trend wetter this afternoon. Yeah, noticed that. Hopefully, it's out to lunch on that run. I never liked it as it was always too low on snowfall projections for this area as there were always more realized. however, it did improve last Winter. So, hope it's not onto something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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