Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Wouldn't be surprised SREF looked a tad better when I did a quick glance. Looks to be .2-.3 for the eastern valley. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Looks to be .2-.3 for the eastern valley. Rates forecasted to be at a minimum of 14:1. Snow map looks terrible. I believe there’s still so much uncertainty atm stil. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Thus far the anecdotal evidence presented from the high plains is indicative of an overperformer. With that said I'm not sure how that translates east of the Mississippi 24-36 hrs later. Are we clutching at straws or is there a realistic possibility models are slipping with this? At this point I'd be monitoring available moisture like a hawk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The snow maps honestly look like the Cumberlands in many runs, are acting like the Smokies normally do with snow dying out in Western NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Adding to what TellicoWX is posting No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Freezing drizzle causing alot of problems on Kansas DOT map (Purple is reporting ice covered) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Cheyenne currently. https://fb.watch/hzx67t_rlT/?mibextid=NnVzG8Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 RGEM took a baby step forward plateau/west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Cheyenne currently. https://fb.watch/hzx67t_rlT/?mibextid=NnVzG8Sent from my SM-F721U using TapatalkWhat the crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 What the crap.About as wicked as it gets! Thats what it looks like with only 1"-2" of high rstio powder snow with that crazy wind!Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 GFS just Nam'd plateau/west lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 As much as I love snow..I really feel for you guys out that way if the GFS score the coup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: GFS just Nam'd plateau/west lol It's amazing how much of a carbon copy of the 18z it was with its snowfall map. At this point its either crazy or a genius with very little in between. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 GFS is never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down... Seriously it's now depicting snow further south than it has so far, almost to the Mississippi/Louisiana border.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The GFS does have support from the HRRR and the HRW hi res model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Can still see some of the resolution problems 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Can still see some of the resolution problems I’ll be floored if that little stretch of the valley gets almost nothing. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Can still see some of the resolution problems I just don't buy the complete blank of the valley. The plateau has an effect of downsloping but I think it's exaggerating that effect as though the plateau has the elevation of the smokies. I think the models are overdoing the downsloping and underestimating the speed of the cold past the great wall of the Cumberland.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The GFS is also getting colder for Friday morning! Seeing a lot of sub zero I40 N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Can still see some of the resolution problems A moment of silence for @BuCoVaWxfrom that SWVA GFS screwjob. lol. I'd say the same to kv and carver joking too... but the kingsport snowhole is a genuine phenomenon. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 MRX update at 3 will be gold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: A moment of silence for @BuCoVaWxfrom that GFS screwjob. lol. I'd say the same to and carver joking too... but the kingsport snowhole is a genuine phenomenon. I literally just looked at the GFS right before I saw your post!! It's kind of a real thing here sometimes sadly 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 0z CMC appears to have come somewhat to the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: A moment of silence for @BuCoVaWxfrom that SWVA GFS screwjob. lol. I'd say the same to kv and carver joking too... but the kingsport snowhole is a genuine phenomenon. LOL. I just ignore it on modeling. Being on the river and the EB, we are fighting dynamics most aren't. LOL. That said, modeling is often woefully wrong here. JC should get more w/ this set-up. There is DEFINITELY a rain shadow here w/ this angle of approach. But one thing I do watch is sometimes E TN does fill in w/ system like this. I think 0.5" to 1.5" is pretty reasonable. I am having a blast tracking this though. I am gonna set the alarm and watch this front blast through tomorrow night. Truly, I hope I have power. Losing power would be fun for about ten minutes....and then no wifi or electricity for days would be pretty awful. I am definitely worried about power loss with these winds. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: A moment of silence for @BuCoVaWxfrom that SWVA GFS screwjob. lol. I'd say the same to kv and carver joking too... but the kingsport snowhole is a genuine phenomenon. Hoping the rapidly intensifying cold can overcome the Eastman Dome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said: I literally just looked at the GFS right before I saw your post!! It's kind of a real thing here sometimes sadly I have 3 limiting factors I've become conscious of, 1) Big A Mountain downslope for NW flow events. 2) Clinch Mountain downslope for Miller A events. 3) Warm air advection heading all the way up the Clinch to my doorstep although less than everyone SE of me. I think the big issue for Grundy is the low elevation, it's hard to flush out the warm air from the maze that is the Appalachian Plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. I just ignore it on modeling. Being on the river and the EB, we are fighting dynamics most aren't. LOL. That said, modeling is often woefully wrong here. JC should get more w/ this set-up. There is DEFINITELY a rain shadow here w/ this angle of approach. But one thing I do watch is sometimes E TN does fill in w/ system like this. I think 0.5" to 1.5" is pretty reasonable. I am having a blast tracking this though. I am gonna set the alarm and watch this front blast through tomorrow night. Truly, I hope I have power. Losing power would be fun for about ten minutes....and then no wifi or electricity for days would be pretty awful. I am definitely worried about power loss with these winds. The loss of electric is a real possibility. The cut backs on production by the Biden Admin. has already put a strain on the grid. This is worrisome to say the least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I just don't buy the complete blank of the valley. The plateau has an effect of downsloping but I think it's exaggerating that effect as though the plateau has the elevation of the smokies. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk Think right now we are in no man's land..3 hr increments on the globals isn't helping at the key moments the front comes down into the valley and we are too far out for the hi res mess models. Add in the DGZ being in a very uncommon place, and we get this result. May honestly not know one way or the other on the valley until the event is almost on top of the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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