TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Can you tell the front passed the station NW Jonesboro, AR lol...graph can't keep up (temp actually at 32) 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Looks like Cumberland and Fentress counties in a WSW now too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Winter Storm Warning hoisted for northern middle TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I think that was a textbook ninja Carvers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think that was a textbook ninja Carvers LOL. Nashville as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 From Nashville. Paging @Wurbus -> verified thread. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches, with pockets of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee along and north of I-40. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 10 PM this evening to noon CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL IMPACTS...While falling precipitation will end before sunrise Friday, travel impacts are likely to last into the weekend. Please plan for slow travel as icy conditions on secondary roadways could be possible through the holiday weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Batten down the hatches. Wind advisory, WWA and Wind Chill Warnings for pretty much all of MRX's region. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 10 to 20 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 to 40 below zero in the higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow and blowing snow expected along with icy roads. Total snow accumulations from a dusting up to two inches in the lower elevations to 2 to 3 inches across the Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions that could impact travel through Friday. The quick drop in temperatures may lead to rapid freezing of any moisture on roads producing icy roadways. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts Tonight through Friday are expected to be between 30 and 50 mph. Winds this strong may result in downed trees and power lines, which may cause power outages while temperatures are extremely cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 And Memphis...KY video is listed above. Feel free to add your local NWS office afternoon discos for posterity. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations around one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed Friday afternoon into Friday night. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas and West Tennessee. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Flash freezes may occur as cold air quickly builds in over wet ground. This may result in hazardous travel conditions. Reduced visibilities will also be possible. Travel is strongly discouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, Kentucky said: If I were working at any of the NWSFO'S in much of Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio I'd put out Blizzard Warmings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 NWS Nashville Disco "However, we are starting to pick up on the potential for some additional forcing behind the front when the cold air gets here and we start to transition from rain to snow. This added feature could signal underperforming of the models in regards to snowfall totals, especially for areas north of I-40 and on the Cumberland Plateau. Several spots along the KY/TN state line are pushing 3 inches. On top of this, ground temperatures are pretty warm, so the question is how are we going to get snow to stick? Well, if it comes down hard and fast, we can get those accumulations, no doubt. My first concern lies with the melting snow and rain just before the cold air gets here. Temperatures look to drop below freezing FAST and while the wind will help to dry up some of that liquid, any additional water on area roadways is going to freeze, causing an icing situation. For these reasons, we`ve decided to push out a Winter Storm Warning for areas along and north of I-40 from 6 pm this evening until 6 am tomorrow morning." 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 All of it...why not. Sounds like Fairbanks, Alaska. FXUS64 KMRX 222054 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 354 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 Key Messages: 1. A powerful arctic cold front arrives tonight, along with strong winds that will drop wind chills to unprecedented and dangerous lows. Power outages due to the high winds will be a concern late tonight and possibly Friday. 2. Rain will quickly change to snow after midnight, and with the rapid temperature drop, flash freezing of any moisture on roads will cause hazardous travel at least through Friday. Discussion: For tonight, anomaly strong 300mb jet of 170kt+ will move across the Tennessee valley overnight with the left exit region of the jet enhancing the fronto-genetic lift along a strong arctic boundary. A band of precipitation will move east across the region along this arctic boundary. NAEFS shows how much of an anomaly with the cold air with 850mb temperatures near historical values. The very cold air will quickly change the rain to snow. The limiting factor will be the strong downslope across the western valley off the Plateau. HREF shows this precipitation shadow quite well so having much lower snowfall over the western half of the valley makes sense. The band restrengthens over the eastern half of the valley (essentially along and east of interstate 40/81. Greatest snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches there with the highest amounts of 3 to possibly 4 inches across the far east Tennessee Mountains. Main concern is the brutal arctic airmass and strong pressure gradients behind the front producing dangerous wind chills of 15 to 20 below zero in the valley and 30 to possibly 40 below zero in the high elevations late tonight through Friday night. Again, these are historical values that seldom occur across the area, and are life threatening to anyone not prepared. Also, a concern is the strong westerly winds along and behind the Arctic front. Westerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Due to enhanced flow off the Plateau, HREF, HRRR, and WRF are showing the highest winds from Claiborne, Anderson, Roane, Rhea, and possibly western section of Hamilton county. These winds will likely produce Power Outages which is very concerning given the dangerous wind chills. For Friday, main snow band moves east but cold arctic air will likely continue chances of flurries over much of the area with temperatures struggling to rise into the teens. Dangerous wind chills area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 1. Historic, dangerous cold and wind chills will continue into Christmas Eve with record low high temperatures expected. Flurries or even light snow showers will also linger. 2. A slow but gradual warming trend will take place Christmas onward with temperatures near normal by mid-week. Friday Night through Sunday At the start of the period, the long-awaited historic cold event will be underway in the entire eastern U.S. The initial conditions will include deep upper troughing and the surface low near 970mb just north of the eastern Great Lakes. A strong MSLP gradient, record-breaking 850mb temperatures below -20 Celsius, and 850mb flow of 30+ kts will keep the continued concern for extreme cold, including wind chills overnight Friday. A Wind Chill Warning will remain in effect for the entire region with no changes anticipated. As such, travel concerns will linger into Saturday for remaining ice/snow on untreated roadways. For Friday night and Saturday, trended toward more cloud cover and chance of flurries. NBM typically underperforms in cold air advection stratus clouds and GFS is showing boundary layer moisture lasting a lot longer. Based on the forecasted values, Christmas Eve low maximum temperature records temperature records will likely be in jeopardy with record low temperatures to be nearly broken as well. The values are as follows with the most recent year of occurrence: Christmas Eve Low Maximum Temperature Records Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 24(1983) 24(1989) 19(1989) 23(1983) Christmas Eve Low Temperature Records Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 2(1983) -2(1983) -3(1989) -2(1983) A general weakening of the LLJ and MSLP gradient will certainly allow for wind chills to gradually rise above the double-digit negative values but will still remain of significant concern into much of the day. Heading towards Christmas Day, height rises and subtle, but still present WAA will support some recovery of temperatures from the previous two days. However, indications are for the region to still remain below freezing for the day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If I were working at any of the NWSFO'S in much of Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio I'd put out Blizzard Warmings. Criteria will likely be met. Yep. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I think the Hi-Res models are trying to downslope a bit too much off the Plateau in the northern areas. It doesn't fall off a cliff here like it does in the Central and Southern areas. Those areas go from 2000ish feet to 800ish feet or even more extreme drops down towards Chattanooga. Up this way like in Claiborne, Union and even Northern Knox it's more 1200-1400 even in valley floor areas and those valley floors are really narrow with a lot of 1500-1800 foot ridges. The area of SE Campbell it shows drying out is almost all 1400-1800 foot ridges with very steep, narrow valleys down into the lake. Same on the other side in NW Union. That hilly country extends down to House Mountain. That's not really favorable downslope country. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I think the Hi-Res models are trying to downslope a bit too much off the Plateau in the northern areas. It doesn't fall off a cliff here like it does in the Central and Southern areas. Those areas go from 2000ish feet to 800ish feet or even more extreme drops down towards Chattanooga. Up this way like in Claiborne, Union and even Northern Knox it's more 1200-1400 even in valley floor areas and those valley floors are really narrow with a lot of 1500-1800 foot ridges. The area of SE Campbell it shows drying out is almost all 1400-1800 foot ridges with very steep, narrow valleys down into the lake. Same on the other side in NW Union. That hilly country extends down to House Mountain. That's not really favorable downslope country.I’m at 1200 feet and I’m in what I’d consider a low area for my region of N Knox Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The RAP is more smooth with accumulations. The HRRR has placed it's downslope/dry slots oddly today. At one point a run had it in Western Campbell where elevation go from roughly 1600 feet in Scott to 3400 feet in Campbell. Not the best location to place your snowhole, with a near 2000 feet elevation rise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think the Hi-Res models are trying to downslope a bit too much off the Plateau in the northern areas. It doesn't fall off a cliff here like it does in the Central and Southern areas. Those areas go from 2000ish feet to 800ish feet or even more extreme drops down towards Chattanooga. Up this way like in Claiborne, Union and even Northern Knox it's more 1200-1400 even in valley floor areas and those valley floors are really narrow with a lot of 1500-1800 foot ridges. The area of SE Campbell it shows drying out is almost all 1400-1800 foot ridges with very steep, narrow valleys down into the lake. Same on the other side in NW Union. That hilly country extends down to House Mountain. That's not really favorable downslope country. Might could be time to whip out ye olden topo map for analysis and disucssion : I'll be interested to see how my area does, since I'm in a limbo situation. 1300 feet or so, just on the edge of the plateau: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 You can see in my expertly drawn white circle, why downsloping makes way less sense in this are but makes at least a little more sense further down towards the Central and Southern Plateau. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Might could be time to whip out ye olden topo map for analysis and disucssion : I'll be interested to see how my area does, since I'm in a limbo situation. 1300 feet or so, just on the edge of the plateau:Your topo is why I do better with Northerly flow. I'm due south in the valley of the sort of gap between the mountains around Frozen Head and the higher terrain down around black and hinch mountains. Generally I do better when the flow funnels through your neck of the woods vs a west wind. Not only do I do better there seems some weird enhancement when the wind funnels through there.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z GFS looks better over the eastern valley north of 40. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Be curious to see how fast the temperature drops for our friends our west. It looks like the front is about over Memphis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z GFS looks better over the eastern valley north of 40.And the snow hole makes more sense IMO. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Memphis. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS looks better over the eastern valley north of 40. It's downslope area seems to more align with actual terrain than the hi-res models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Be curious to see how fast the temperature drops for our friends our west. It looks like the front is about over Memphis. Sitting at 46 in Hardeman County at the moment with a light breeze and overcast skies. snow/rain is supposed to get here around 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Memphis. What station is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's downslope area seems to more align with actual terrain than the hi-res models. Agee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Seems like the radar is filling in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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