Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Someone post that recent HRRR w/ Kuchera, please! Euro is rolling. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Big concern for the Valley on the low level moisture is the DGZ speed lowering and how dry it is. The residual could be squeezed out in the form of light drizzle/fog creating a nightmare glaze on everything. Won't take very much drizzle to instantly freeze on contact for things to go down hill quickly. This is my second biggest concern for our area, just behind downed trees causing power outages. Crashing temps causing a "flash freeze" would spell disaster in general but especially on the roads. I have a friend coming from Atlanta today and my brother is driving back from Indiana as I type. I've told them both to be in place before midnight if possible. Hopefully traffic will have decreased somewhat by the time it arrives in our part of the Valley. I hope everyone (i.e., the general public) is up to date on things and are planning accordingly but honestly how many folks are keeping up with the storm the way we are? Speaking of which, thanks to y'all for the great coverage...as always! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The ice scenario is what played out last night over Kansas. No model showed any icing (or very, very little). State turned into a skating rink..with enough accretion for photos of icicles hanging off mail boxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Definitely an improvement for the valley considering earlier runs the valley was blanked almost entirely.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12-23, 06z averaged precip on the Euro over the past 6 runs. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Don't know if anyone has noticed but the Blizzard warnings have expanded westward back to Montana where the front had already passed yesterday. Which means if NWS offices out there didn't think it was necessary to issue until well after fropa then the winds and overall strength of the storm and its impacts were underestimated yesterday.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Don't know if anyone has noticed but the Blizzard warnings have expanded westward back to Montana where the front had already passed yesterday. Which means if NWS offices out there didn't think it was necessary to issue until well after fropa then the winds and overall strength of the storm and its impacts were underestimated yesterday. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk Alot of offices that way played catch up thru the night. Starting to see the upgrades out in front now (such as western KY/ MO upgrading a little bit ago to WSW) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Which means modeling isn't going to see that low level moisture, right? Some reports out west almost implied that a snow was rolling in like a fog when it hit. I believe modeling is a simulated radar and I'm not sure it's equipped to handle snow falling that low in the atmosphere. We see that pretty often here, where the models have cleared things and snow showers linger one as the DGZ drops below radar. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Winter storm warnings for SW KY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Winter storm warnings for SW KY.For only 2-4" which I suspect isn't there normal requirement for WSW, think they are trying to make a statement with the public about how bad its going to get with wind driven snow. Funny though with only 3 inches of snow with the forecast windspeeds there will probably be drifts up to 2 feet deep in places.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 16z HRRR freezing rain..concerning. Have to fill in the holes where simulation can't keep up with the front. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: For only 2-4" which I suspect isn't there normal requirement for WSW, think they are trying to make a statement with the public about how bad its going to get with wind driven snow. Funny though with only 3 inches of snow with the forecast windspeeds there will probably be drifts up to 2 feet deep in places. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk And since that snow will fall in a very short time as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 16z HRRR freezing rain..concerning. Have to fill in the holes where simulation can't keep up with the front. I'll be interested to see the transition tonight. Do we go straight rain to snow? Or an inbetween? And as pointed out a big question still remains in regards to our moisture. The DGZ will be on the ground. So we could end up with basically freezing mist for hours after. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 In my experience with the DGZ that low and temps so cold, you get small ice crystals, even if the sky is blue. I don't recall ever seeing freezing mist at temps below 10. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Looks like back in Nebraska and Kansas where models besides the GFS showed .5 to 1 inch, they ended up with 1-3 inches. That's if the snowfall maps can be believed, and we know from our own back yard they are very often wrong and virtually always on the low side of wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: In my experience with the DGZ that low and temps so cold, you get small ice crystals, even if the sky is blue. I don't recall ever seeing freezing mist at temps below 10. Salina, KS had freezing rain/mist and a temp of 1° last night. Looked almost like a fog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 That's very unusual, it would definitely be something to experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 This snow will be very tough to measure if we do get much. There will be hardly any surfaces that aren't wind affected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The ratios for the total event are generally coming in at 17:1 to 22:1 across areas NW of here. But many started out much colder. So we won't get there as an average for the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ratios for the total event are generally coming in at 17:1 to 22:1 across areas NW of here. But many started out much colder. So we won't get there as an average for the event. Wouldn’t the wind have a effect on the size of flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Curious to see which model works out here. Also strange how models evolved with the system. The GFS started it as a clipperish system. Then turned it into a Miller A for a bit. The Euro/UKIE tried to make it a major cutter. Then they all trended back towards a clipper/anafrontal event. If the GFS is even close to correct on snowfall amounts, we will know that the Euro/UKIE have a lot of trouble with this type of event. The UKIE never caught on to Christmas 2020 and the Euro didn't until 24 hours out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Fill your vehicles full of gas. If the power went out you could get in the vehicles if we had too. 30-40 mph wind's possible. . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Wouldn’t the wind have a effect on the size of flakes? Generally the temperature and available moisture are what affect flake size. Warmer and they clump together more, as there's usually more moisture in the air. Cold, usually less moisture and less clumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 In my experience with the DGZ that low and temps so cold, you get small ice crystals, even if the sky is blue. I don't recall ever seeing freezing mist at temps below 10.This is what happened during the 2015 cold snap. The coldest day IMBY (Erwin at the time) was 8° with ice crystals falling nearly all day. Unlike anything I’d seen before or have seen since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Tapatalk double post, disregard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The great January '85 Outbreak featured anafrontal heavy Snowfall. A general 5-8" throughout the Valley as I recall. More than forecasted. There were the small crystal flakes the next day under mainly clear skies as well with actual daytime Temps below zero at my home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The great January '85 Outbreak featured anafrontal heavy Snowfall. A general 5-8" throughout the Valley as I recall. More than forecasted. There were the small crystal flakes the next day under mainly clear skies as well with actual daytime Temps below zero at my home. Yes. Remember it well. They were calling for a few inches. Some areas in and around Knoxville saw 8”. I did at my house. That’s when it was 25 below in Knoxville . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR giveth. HRRR taketh away. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The great January '85 Outbreak featured anafrontal heavy Snowfall. A general 5-8" throughout the Valley as I recall. More than forecasted. There were the small crystal flakes the next day under mainly clear skies as well with actual daytime Temps below zero at my home. This is what I am hoping here, under forecasted event, that busts high. There is absolutely a chance for anyone in the forum region to bust high.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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