Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th

[Dsty2001]

We are still a good 5 days out

[ShawnEastTN]

Will be some nail biting for Michigan, Indiana.  But they are in play for a whopper of a storm.

Agree! There is a storm in history that resulted in one of largest maritime disasters in US history and the largest ever on the great lakes that resulted in 250 sailors deaths in 24 hours. It was named "The White Hurricane" and occurred in 1913, good read BTW if reading on it. While weather forecasting is better than back in 1913 so wouldn't expect the maritime industry to be wrecked like that, but this storm could be a "White Hurricane" with those pressures modeled!! Crazy low pressure would likely be 30 foot waves on Lake Michigan and Huron also possible Superior, even here those NW winds will be howling as currently modeled. Wouldn't be surprised if as modeled, that most of the forum area would go under High Wind Warnings, mountains for sure but possibly even lower elevations.

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[BlunderStorm]

11 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

We are still a good 5 days out

We're gonna need a hail mary of an eastward trend, that or some trailing energy once the low wraps the cold in.

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

We're gonna need a hail mary of an eastward trend, that or some trailing energy once the low wraps the cold in.

Yeppers ! 

[Silas Lang]

41 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

We're gonna need a hail mary of an eastward trend, that or some trailing energy once the low wraps the cold in.

Yeah, unless something major changes, I think eastern areas are out. It could still trend better for the west and maybe middle TN. 

[Daniel Boone]

Nina Ninja still main culprit. I do wonder lf a formidable 50-50 Low were in place how this would transpire. I do believe that is the biggest problem with this pattern let alone the powerhouse storms coming out of the Plains. Those SST's around Newfoundland are the probable cause, i.m.o

[Matthew70]

The older I get the more I feel a move to FL is what I need to do.  This type of cold & no snow is just brutal.  I admit I’m looking forward to this cold spell being over. Those 50’s will be nice especially if it’s sunny.  

[PowellVolz]

What’s funny is I would have completely understood if suppression was the issue.


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[BlunderStorm]

Pressure marginally higher at 42 on the Euro between the highs.
EDIT: By 60 the difference is more discernable, the low may pop up further east giving western folks more to work with. Let's see...
EDIT: At 78 discouragingly a low in hudson bay is stronger perhaps weakening the bridge of high pressure.
EDIT: 96, Welp, this probably won't resolve well. Looking very cutty, very quickly.

[Carvers Gap]

Muddled picture persists as most modeling now have a fairly decent front running slp.  What needs to be watched is whether modeling beginning to strengthen the front runner.  If that happens, all bets are off on the synoptics of this.  I think a cutter is likely, but that front-running low(engine and caboose) pattern has wrecked havoc on model solutions in the past.

[Carvers Gap]

Don't look now but here comes another somewhat different look by the Euro.....stay tuned.

[Carvers Gap]

At 120, a slp pressure develops in the upper Gulf states and then slides along the lee side of the Apps.  That'll do the trick if real.

[Carvers Gap]

I think our chances are waining...but no way modeling has this all nailed down.  The front runner was much stronger on this run.   As Tellico noted yesterday evening, I wouldn't be shocked that some sort of transfer of energy is occurring.  The primary pushes into the Midwest while a secondary forms along the coast.  I don't think this is sorted out yet.  

 

[PowellVolz]

At 120, a slp pressure develops in the upper Gulf states and then slides along the lee side of the Apps.  That'll do the trick if real.

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[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

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LOL.  I wouldn't say I am pulled back in.  But the Euro cranking that front runner gives me pause.  It wasn't there earlier.  Most modeling has that to some extent.  Even the GEFS at 12z has that.  If that front runner speeds up or slows down in the least....the solution is amended.  

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing to note is the jet streak raging over the TN valley immediately after the low.  Let's see if something rides that after the big storm.

[Silas Lang]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The other thing to note is the jet streak raging over the TN valley immediately after the low.  Let's see if something rides that after the big storm.

Some runs have had little waves of snow after the big system. Honestly could pick up a quick inch or two if we get something small with the cold temps. I remember one little wave after a big storm several years ago where I got a random 3 or 4 inches of snow. Something to watch for sure. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Some runs have had little waves of snow after the big system. Honestly could pick up a quick inch or two if we get something small with the cold temps. I remember one little wave after a big storm several years ago where I got a random 3 or 4 inches of snow. Something to watch for sure. 

This may be one of those years when some area's see a white Christmas ( 1" or more) while other's a short distance away doesn't . 

[PowellVolz]

LOL.  I wouldn't say I am pulled back in.  But the Euro cranking that front runner gives me pause.  It wasn't there earlier.  Most modeling has that to some extent.  Even the GEFS at 12z has that.  If that front runner speeds up or slows down in the least....the solution is amended.  

Lol…Yeah I really was just looking for a reason to use that gif. That being said… it doesn’t look good but at least we don’t feel like the mods have a handle on this. That Euro just got more complicated than yesterday’s runs.


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[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Lol…Yeah I really was just looking for a reason to use that gif. That being said… it doesn’t look good but at least we don’t feel like the mods have a handle on this. That Euro just got more complicated than yesterday’s runs.


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Yeah, it's complicated for sure.  In my years of tracking weather the engine/caboose setup is probably the most difficult for modeling to handle.  A few days ago, modeling was trying to pop a Miller A.  Then modeling began to emphasize the western cutter.  We are right about where modeling rediscovers storms.  I think the cutter is most likely, but I am not convinced there aren't some surprises embedded.

[PowellVolz]

Yeah, it's complicated for sure.  In my years of tracking weather the engine/caboose setup is probably the most difficult for modeling to handle.  A few days ago, modeling was trying to pop a Miller A.  Then modeling began to emphasize the western cutter.  We are right about where modeling rediscovers storms.  I think the cutter is most likely, but I am not convinced there aren't some surprises embedded.

I agree this probably ends up a cutter but Christmas and the March surprise has taught me with the new mods to wait until we get to d4 before I start to feel good or bad.


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[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, it's complicated for sure.  In my years of tracking weather the engine/caboose setup is probably the most difficult for modeling to handle.  A few days ago, modeling was trying to pop a Miller A.  Then modeling began to emphasize the western cutter.  We are right about where modeling rediscovers storms.  I think the cutter is most likely, but I am not convinced there aren't some surprises embedded.

I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does.  Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. 
 

In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does.  Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. 
 

In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.

Rarely all or nothing.  I think I have been incredibly clear that I think this is a cutter.  I have also learned to never say never.  

That said, I have been burned by this set-up more times than I can count.  That slp out front certainly matters if it continues to increase in strength.  The big problem right now is spacing.  I think we see snow showers at the least w/ the second system and possible some valley ice w/ the first system, especially in southwest Virginia.  With it being so cold for the second system, the mountains could score some light amounts in the east and even the valleys.  This entire tracking experience is a good reminder that when tracking a storm from seven days out....we have to survive 28 model runs to get to fruition.  I doubt this is done changing even at this point.   I strongly suspect there will be one final system that rotates in after the big storm.  Cold shots often have clippers that follow.  

If this changes, the change I would suspect is that we see more precip along the front and cold rushing in along that similar to a couple of Christmases ago.  Any lee side slp(not the frontrunner I am speaking of) that forms along the front has to be watched.  Those lee side lows can amp systems sometimes.  I am not saying that is a certainty.  I am saying that front is incredibly strong.  I would be surprised not to see some flakes in the air IMBY.

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I agree this probably ends up a cutter but Christmas and the March surprise has taught me with the new mods to wait until we get to d4 before I start to feel good or bad.


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Amen to that.  There is a crap ton of energy w/ that front.  It has to go somewhere.

[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  I wouldn't say I am pulled back in.  But the Euro cranking that front runner gives me pause.  It wasn't there earlier.  Most modeling has that to some extent.  Even the GEFS at 12z has that.  If that front runner speeds up or slows down in the least....the solution is amended.  

For a sliver of hope...GEFS mean actually had a nice little increase for the eastern valley

[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does.  Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. 
 

In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.

One way or the other I'm pretty positive we'll get some snow, whether a dusting or several inches. 

      I have saw that happen with transfer's; a decent shield of snow heading in from the west only to be killed by a system developing well to the east and sucking the energy into it. 

      I have also witnessed Lee side development that enhanced precip by throwing moisture back . 

      

[Itryatgolf70]

Hate to be berenger of bad news, but If we don't get a system by end of the week, at minimum we got until mid January before pattern becomes more favorable for winter weather. I'm hearing too extended EAMT event is going to happen and flood the US with warm air. 

[Daniel Boone]

The theme for the fall and early Winter has been 3 weeks cold west vs a week to 10 days cold east.  Block or no block.

     I don't know why but, it's as if we are going through a cyclic continual process. The Nina is the biggest Driver. I suspect the MJO is having some impact. Alas, the NW Atlantic SST'S. 

[Carvers Gap]

Say what we want about the lack of snow, but the 18z GFS is straight bringing the cold.

[Wurbus]

Not much change on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z.