Wurbus Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 First time creating a thread and hoping for a Christmas Miracle! Models have been consistent on a huge cold shot coming in around the 23rd. Like always, the question is if we get any snow with this cold shot. GFS has shown the potentially for multiple rounds of snow, with an initial thumping arriving with the cold. CMC has the cold, but the system isn't amped up and we have some snow showers in the area. Euro has shown the system on the 23rd, but currently is cold and dry as of 00z 12/16. Regardless if any snow pans out, the cold looks to be real and potentially record breaking. Highs in the teens will be common from the 24th-26th with single digit (and sub-zero lows with snow pack). Below is the eye candy from the 12z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, Wurbus said: First time creating a thread and hoping for a Christmas Miracle! Models have been consistent on a huge cold shot coming in around the 23rd. Like always, the question is if we get any snow with this cold shot. GFS has shown the potentially for multiple rounds of snow, with an initial thumping arriving with the cold. CMC has the cold, but the system isn't amped up and we have some snow showers in the area. Euro has shown the system on the 23rd, but currently is cold and dry as of 00z 12/16. Regardless if any snow pans out, the cold looks to be real and potentially record breaking. Highs in the teens will be common from the 24th-26th with single digit (and sub-zero lows with snow pack). Below is the eye candy from the 12z GFS. After that run, no where to go but down for the eastern 1/2 of Tennessee. lol That said, I really hope to have to eat these words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 You're a brave poster Wurbus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You're a brave poster Wurbus. Might by the last thread I ever create lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I think the Euro is digging a bit more this time. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This difference is pretty wild at 48hrs out between gfs and euro. look over Alaska. The GFS already has a much more discreet energy piece. Wonder how it's getting that while no other model is showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GFS and the Euro handling the size of he energy and its trajetcory ejecting down the PNA ridge differently, but I think the end result is going to be a step closer to the GFS this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The GFS and the Euro handling the size of he energy and its trajetcory ejecting down the PNA ridge differently, but I think the end result is going to be a step closer to the GFS this time. Looks like a strong cold front similar to the Canadian to me............. How it handles the northern stream the first 72 hours makes all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12z run is 500 miles west with the energy on 18z 12/22, vs 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We will see where it ends up and who caves, but the Euro is erratic to say the least, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 To be fair, it may end up looking closer to the CMC with surface output (haven't looked yet since weathermodels is slow wrt thatoutput), but I'm happy with the energy's trajectory at 12z than what it had at 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z run is 500 miles west with the energy on 18z 12/22, vs 0z run. And the above wasn't meant as a critique of your post @tnweathernut, I just happened to be typing at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ehh, it did indeed end up like the CMC camp, despite starting out further west: Big old cold front. But wait, that output looks familiar..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: And the above wasn't meant as a critique of your post @tnweathernut, I just happened to be typing at the same time. No worries. I usually only look at the upper levels. In the case of my post I was solely looking at the surface. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Upslope would be "killer" for the mountains with that setup, providing all the trees don't get blown down. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So we might be looking at the west getting cold & here we have a few days of cold then back to near normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 6:47 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z GFS jumped in a big way toward how the Euro and CMC were handling the system next week. Hopefully that is a sign that it is handling things poorly right now because its long range looked warm. The above was when we wanted the GFS to be wrong about the huge upper low, when the CMC and Euro were showing good upslope for this weekend (i.e. today and tomorrow). CMC at this range for today: GFS for same date range at same initialization time: Actual conditions in Kingsport: Now to be fair the GFS didn't exactly nail the 500mb pattern (trend of runs since that time through 12z today): But maybe there is reason for hope that the GFS isn't totally out in lala land. Cards on the table I'm hugging the GFS for all its worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Too many variables at this point to pin down anything. Models are notoriously back and forth on forecasts when their dealing with these arctic cold weather outbreaks. By Sunday/Monday we should have a much better idea, need some model uniformity before I take it too seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GFS has scored some wins the past year or so since the major upgrade, correct? Maybe I am remembering it wrong, but I swear it has seemed more consistent for the past couple of big winter storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: The GFS has scored some wins the past year or so since the major upgrade, correct? Maybe I am remembering it wrong, but I swear it has seemed more consistent for the past couple of big winter storms. I just read a post, maybe even by you, from the March storm as it approached, that the Euro had just completely caved to the GFS. That said, this one is still early in the game regarding the storm. Extreme cold seems nearly unavoidable but it would be tempered with snow vs without snow. There's still very often major model disagreement inside 90 hours over the last few years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 ECMWF pretty consistent on the cold after the front blows through. Temps crash and we stay below freezing for at least 3-4 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Latest GFS was much better for West and Middle TN. A little concerning for the valley with the LP sitting right on top of it at one point. Still managed to get most of the state. Storm more wound up. Seems like it took a step towards the Euro/CMC. Not a good trend, imo as the storm could end up cutting more if it continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 That GFS run was similar to the wild Euro run either yesterday or day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I just read a post, maybe even by you, from the March storm as it approached, that the Euro had just completely caved to the GFS. That said, this one is still early in the game regarding the storm. Extreme cold seems nearly unavoidable but it would be tempered with snow vs without snow. There's still very often major model disagreement inside 90 hours over the last few years.Your last sentence is why I have pretty much adopted a “whatever” stance any time there’s a potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Playing with the sounding and these potential wind speeds are going to bring bone chilling wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Playing with the sounding and these potential wind speeds are going to bring bone chilling wind chills. I sure hope it snows somewhere in the Tennessee Valley. A dedicated thread seven days out for tracking a cold front will be miserable. Lol no offense, Wurbus…… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I sure hope it snows somewhere in the Tennessee Valley. A dedicated thread seven days out for tracking a cold front will be miserable. Lol no offense, Wurbus…… No offense taken....in all likelihood I jumped the gun creating the thread since it usually doesn't pan out for us the closer we get to a potential event. I just have that feeling about this one though and if it doesn't pan out, I will never create a thread again for cursing the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Wurbus said: No offense taken....in all likelihood I jumped the gun creating the thread since it usually doesn't pan out for us the closer we get to a potential event. I just have that feeling about this one though and if it doesn't pan out, I will never create a thread again for cursing the storm. Nah, man. We got your back. And please don't quit creating threads. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wurbus said: No offense taken....in all likelihood I jumped the gun creating the thread since it usually doesn't pan out for us the closer we get to a potential event. I just have that feeling about this one though and if it doesn't pan out, I will never create a thread again for cursing the storm. Honestly I had my finger on the trigger for sparking one tonight, so don't feel too anxious about it lol. As for expectations if I can get a white ground under marginal temps for Christmas I'll call it a W. Of course that's an easier feat up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Wurbus said: No offense taken....in all likelihood I jumped the gun creating the thread since it usually doesn't pan out for us the closer we get to a potential event. I just have that feeling about this one though and if it doesn't pan out, I will never create a thread again for cursing the storm. Yeah, I’m just messing with you a bit. It’s not every year we have a chance to chase snow by watching models around Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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