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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:00 PM, OceanStWx said:

I've been pouring over my local wind research for any insights on this one, and it's interesting to note the depth of the 925 layer at PWM. Current forecasts are ~ 620-630 m. That's not the lowest I've seen, but it's in the bottom half. The lower the height the more likely you find good wind gusts as long as your lapse rates aren't negative. 

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Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:09 PM, OceanStWx said:

Almost certainly. If he's anything like the grid near our office it doesn't take much.

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Hum,  I thought I saw a high wind warning for all of NH earlier.  Now Gray has the HWW for N NH but not for Southern Grafton and south.  Maybe I saw it wrong?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:07 PM, dendrite said:

Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

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PWM lapse rate was around 6 C/km and the depth was 608 m (both adjusted from the GYX sounding to PWM). Big pressure gradient in that one too.

This one is forecast for ~ 20 mb gradient at least too, so there are a lot of hallmarks for a good wind event for some anyway.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:11 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Hum,  I thought I saw a high wind warning for all of NH earlier.  Now Gray has the HWW for N NH but not for Southern Grafton and south.  Maybe I saw it wrong?

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We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

 

ISO NEW ENGLAND 

Hi Jay,

Thanks for reaching out. 

We are monitoring the storm and cold weather, but are not anticipating any issues at the transmission system level at this time. We are, and will continue to be, in close communication with the distribution companies, like Eversource, to understand what they’re seeing on their systems. If there are substantial outages on the distribution system, we will ask power plants to reduce their generation to ensure supply and demand remain balanced at the grid level. We’ll then call for increases in generation as distribution customers’ service is restored.

Hope that helps,


 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
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  On 12/22/2022 at 5:11 PM, OceanStWx said:

We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

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Thanks!  The other thing and we talked about it a long while ago is I wished the NWS could have stripe colored lines or some way for the public to look on the main page and see multiple advisories, watches warnings in a given area.  For instance right now if you look on the map it is just shaded for the wind advisory for much of NH but not for the flood watch which is in effect too.  I  still have 12" of snow on the ground and with 2" of water inbound that may cause it's own problems

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:07 PM, dendrite said:

Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

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IIRC, the winds were almost due east on that one. this one out of the south east? which I assume has to due with the sfc low position, as you noted.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:24 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks!  The other thing and we talked about it a long while ago is I wished the NWS could have stripe colored lines or some way for the public to look on the main page and see multiple advisories, watches warnings in a given area.  For instance right now if you look on the map it is just shaded for the wind advisory for much of NH but not for the flood watch which is in effect too.  I  still have 12" of snow on the ground and with 2" of water inbound that may cause it's own problems

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Yeah, it is a problem. Advisories/warnings always trump watches, because they are the "imminent/occurring" threat vs "possible".

There might be some flooding, but the snowpack is pretty fresh. It's going to need some time to ripen up before it melts off completely. I suspect the first inch of rain if not 2 will be absorbed by most of the snow across the interior. The ripest snow is over Midcoast Maine, but even that has a ways to go.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:11 PM, OceanStWx said:

PWM lapse rate was around 6 C/km and the depth was 608 m (both adjusted from the GYX sounding to PWM). Big pressure gradient in that one too.

This one is forecast for ~ 20 mb gradient at least too, so there are a lot of hallmarks for a good wind event for some anyway.

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In 2010 Phil Eck Messenger and I conversed all night as a sub tropical  high wind circulation was drawn around and up over Cape then into the GOM. We observed University of Maine buoys gusting into the 70s before failing. 958MB as it hit the GOM. I believe the highest gust was 94 at the GOM buoy outside Portland.  Was insane seeing that translated inland. Inversion was blown out.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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  On 12/22/2022 at 5:36 PM, Ginx snewx said:

In 2010 Phil Eck Messenger and I conversed all night as a sub tropical  high wind circulation was drawn around and up over Cape then into the GOM. We observed University of Maine buoys gusting into the 70s before failing. 958MB as it hit the GOM. I believe the highest gust was 98 at the GOM buoy outside Portland.  Was insane seeing that translated inland. Inversion was blown out.

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38 ft peak wave at the Portland LNB. I thought the chain snapped and we lost the buoy for a while after that, though it seems to have been reporting wave heights after it was set adrift. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/22/2022 at 5:41 PM, OceanStWx said:

38 ft peak wave at the Portland LNB. I thought the chain snapped and we lost the buoy for a while after that, though it seems to have been reporting wave heights after it was set adrift. 

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Boston Harbor had a super high tide the low tide did not go out so the 2nd tide was even higher. By the next morning the ULL moved in overhead dumping 4 to 6 of fluff.

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