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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah guidance kicked up a bit. Nasty winds along front and just after fropa.

A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup. 

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21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

For CT, I've hit the predawn (2 to 5 am) period pretty hard and then again the late afternoon early evening period.

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

There won’t be much ahead of warm front where you are. It’s more just ahead and behind cold front.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

Probably need to revisit 2nd highlighted wind potential period; window probably opens up for that by very late morning into early / mid afternoon period.  Models will waffle a bit with each run but overall signal has been pretty steady.  In these setups a degree or two change in the vertical profile can make all the difference between a pretty run of the mill event and a widespread issue.

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We're prepared

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
327 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

MEZ007>009-018>028-NHZ001>003-010-013-014-222030-
/O.UPG.KGYX.HW.A.0004.221223T1200Z-221224T0700Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.HW.W.0004.221223T0600Z-221224T0700Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal
Waldo-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Strafford-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle
Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,
Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,
Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Hollis,
Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington,
Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene,
Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls,
Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo,
Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo,
Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery,
Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth,
Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin,
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle,
Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland,
Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport,
Searsmont, Lincolnville, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin,
Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton,
Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Barrington,
Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Salem,
Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter,
Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton,
and Seabrook
327 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, west central, and
  western Maine. Portions of central, northern, and southern New
  Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 2 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive. Also secure outdoor holiday decorations.

&&

$$
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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Normally Synoptically a 1053 high to our north moving nne into Eastern Canada locking in would produce here however we are looking at an extremely rare event.  Have to admire this one. 

Screenshot_20221222-070541_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20221222-070541_Chrome.jpg

Seems highest winds east of us unless…..we get any convection to bring winds down. 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Definitely.  HRRR gone wild with the convective elements bringing the winds and the dry slot mixing. Crazy if true.

index (7).png

index (9).png

index (10).png

Wow, bullseye right there for Ekonk Hill….just wondering how much a difference elevation makes with this if anything; me sitting at 275’ vs you at 600’ish?   

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