"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

High wind watch here but im betting it ends up being meh

Most likely. Always take the under on the winds when inland. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Love the Meh’s. Likely to be a lot of “ holy shit at the wind “ trees down etc posts Friday morning as all hell breaks loose 

[dryslot]

Should be a wild few hours fer sher.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds gradually increase Thursday with models in relatively
good agreement beginning cyclogenesis near the Great Lakes area
during this period. The latest model suite does hint at the
development of a secondary area of low pressure near the Mid
Atlantic region by late Thursday. This may allow for the cold
air to hold on across northern areas for a few more hours.
Expect some snow to develop most areas expected southeast NH and
the Coastal Plain. This will quickly go to rain except for the
mountains and foothills where 3-6 inches are possible overnight
Thursday night. Southeast winds increase as the night progresses
with advisory level winds possible late at night
southeasternmost zones/coast and western slopes of the White
Mountains.

Winds continue to increase as Friday progresses as rain becomes
heavy at times. Snow gradually goes over to rain in the
mountains except perhaps near the Canadian Border where we will
have to watch for higher snow amounts in the warm air gets
beaten back. Damaging winds are expected at times on the coastal
plain and the western slopes of the Whites. In between we are
less certain in wind speeds as inversions tend to be deeper up
against east slopes of the mountains and in the Merrimack
Valley. The high wind watch remains up for all zones for the
time being. Residents are urged to prepare in case power is
lost.

Front sweeps across the region by 00z Sat and will mark the end
of heavy rains and the worst winds. However, there may be a 1 or
2 hour period immediately in the wake of the front where strong
pressure rise/fall couplet aids in potentially brief period of
damaging winds. Otherwise, temperatures fall rapidly in the wake
of the front with rain changing to snow for an hour or two
before ending. Temperatures will drop very fast behind the front
with readings going from the 40s and 50s to the teens and 20s
in a matter of 2-3 hours. That`s very impressive for these
parts. You normally see that in the Plains. Therefore, with any
road treatments washed off the roads, a flash freeze will be
possible.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love the Meh’s. Likely to be a lot of “ holy shit at the wind “ trees down etc posts Friday morning as all hell breaks loose 

Just watched Ryan…he’s got about 50 to mid 50’s for the highest winds…that’s pretty meh overall Kev.  You know the deal with this stuff…take the under. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just watched Ryan…he’s got about 50 to mid 50’s for the highest winds…that’s pretty meh overall Kev.  You know the deal with this stuff…take the under. 

50 would be pretty impressive if you get several hours of gusts that strong.  I doubt anybody in the lower elevations away from the coast is seeing that.

[PWMan]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Should be a wild few hours fer sher.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds gradually increase Thursday with models in relatively
good agreement beginning cyclogenesis near the Great Lakes area
during this period. The latest model suite does hint at the
development of a secondary area of low pressure near the Mid
Atlantic region by late Thursday. This may allow for the cold
air to hold on across northern areas for a few more hours.
Expect some snow to develop most areas expected southeast NH and
the Coastal Plain. This will quickly go to rain except for the
mountains and foothills where 3-6 inches are possible overnight
Thursday night. Southeast winds increase as the night progresses
with advisory level winds possible late at night
southeasternmost zones/coast and western slopes of the White
Mountains.

Winds continue to increase as Friday progresses as rain becomes
heavy at times. Snow gradually goes over to rain in the
mountains except perhaps near the Canadian Border where we will
have to watch for higher snow amounts in the warm air gets
beaten back. Damaging winds are expected at times on the coastal
plain and the western slopes of the Whites. In between we are
less certain in wind speeds as inversions tend to be deeper up
against east slopes of the mountains and in the Merrimack
Valley. The high wind watch remains up for all zones for the
time being. Residents are urged to prepare in case power is
lost.

Front sweeps across the region by 00z Sat and will mark the end
of heavy rains and the worst winds. However, there may be a 1 or
2 hour period immediately in the wake of the front where strong
pressure rise/fall couplet aids in potentially brief period of
damaging winds. Otherwise, temperatures fall rapidly in the wake
of the front with rain changing to snow for an hour or two
before ending. Temperatures will drop very fast behind the front
with readings going from the 40s and 50s to the teens and 20s
in a matter of 2-3 hours. That`s very impressive for these
parts. You normally see that in the Plains. Therefore, with any
road treatments washed off the roads, a flash freeze will be
possible.

My P&C forecast is calling for a couple hours of snow after 10:00, though with the buzz-killing "little or no accumulation" caveat. I'm just glad it will all be out of here by Christmas Eve; hopefully we won't have to put real candles on the tree like in days of yore.

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love the Meh’s. Likely to be a lot of “ holy shit at the wind “ trees down etc posts Friday morning as all hell breaks loose 

I agree, might not hit 60 mph but they'll be a mess in our yards.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

50 would be pretty impressive if you get several hours of gusts that strong.  I doubt anybody in the lower elevations away from the coast is seeing that.

Me too.  Along the coast is a different story. 

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just watched Ryan…he’s got about 50 to mid 50’s for the highest winds…that’s pretty meh overall Kev.  You know the deal with this stuff…take the under. 

I don't think 55 is meh when you look at your yard the next day and you hopefully keep electric.

[dendrite]

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, PWMan said:

My P&C forecast is calling for a couple hours of snow after 10:00, though with the buzz-killing "little or no accumulation" caveat. I'm just glad it will all be out of here by Christmas Eve; hopefully we won't have to put real candles on the tree like in days of yore.

Same here, Backside snows never work generally speaking, And if we would not get any in this set up, We never will.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just watched Ryan…he’s got about 50 to mid 50’s for the highest winds…that’s pretty meh overall Kev.  You know the deal with this stuff…take the under. 

This is a different setup . Highest winds will be post fropa out of SW

[WinterWolf]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I don't think 55 is meh when you look at your yard the next day and you hopefully keep electric.

A gust or two of that is meh. If it’s sustained and you get gusts on top of that, that’s diffferent.  Most of the winds were in the 40’s.  
 

Point is, the winds almost always disappoint here way more than not. I’ll take the under being inland every time on something like this, and be correct 99% of the time.   Been disappointed too many times buying in on this stuff. So I’m expecting it to be nothing that impressive.
 

If I’m wrong,  I’ll be the first to admit it, and say it delivered. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I agree, might not hit 60 mph but they'll be a mess in our yards.

GFS held serve with violence. We’ll see how it looks in the morning . For now .. I don’t see any reason to think SNE will see some 65 + ers 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a different setup . Highest winds will be post fropa out of SW

Ok. I guess we’ll see how it plays out. I’m not expecting to be to impressed as I said, but maybe I’ll be wrong this time. 

[ineedsnow]

Highly doubt this

 

Thursday

A chance of snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Night

Snow before 9pm, then rain and snow between 9pm and 11pm, then rain after 11pm. Temperature rising to around 43 by 5am. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS held serve with violence. We’ll see how it looks in the morning . For now .. I don’t see any reason to think SNE will see some 65 + ers 

Take em down

[amarshall]

60 on the coast here is a random Tuesday NBD


.

[Amped]

I think this storm is going to produce quite a few of these.

[FXWX]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A gust or two of that is meh. If it’s sustained and you get gusts on top of that, that’s diffferent.  Most of the winds were in the 40’s.  
 

Point is, the winds almost always disappoint here way more than not. I’ll take the under being inland every time on something like this, and be correct 99% of the time.   Been disappointed too many times buying in on this stuff. So I’m expecting it to be nothing that impressive.
 

If I’m wrong,  I’ll be the first to admit it, and say it delivered. 

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE.  No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds.  But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur.  It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area.  The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be.  Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase.  Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need.  That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level.  The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region.  Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence.  The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE.  No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds.  But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur.  It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area.  The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be.  Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase.  Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need.  That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level.  The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region.  Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence.  The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

Ok, thanks John for the info. Good stuff. We’ll see how it plays out. 
 

I think more my point was..the winds don’t verify as forecast most times inland. Maybe they do this time. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3f with 45kt winds must be fun.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That temp drop will be impressive.  55F to 10F here.  
 

That’ll leave a mark

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE.  No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds.  But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur.  It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area.  The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be.  Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase.  Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need.  That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level.  The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region.  Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence.  The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

Thanks John. Great depiction . This is what was needed 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh...looking at these recent GFS/Euro runs, this thing really does not produce that much synoptic snow in the united states.  It's wrapping up really late/Ontario ...that's where it appears to establish those QPF machinery.  It's a like a violent snow flurry out side of any LE

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...looking at these recent GFS/Euro runs, this thing really does not produce that much synoptic snow in the united states.  It's wrapping up really late/Ontario ...that's where it appears to establish those QPF machinery.  It's a like a violent snow flurry out side of any LE

Was thinking the same thing…States gonna get a shafting. Canada gets the goods. 

[dendrite]

DEN 42 to 18 in 7 mins

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

DEN 42 to 18 in 7 mins

That’s insane. 

[Chris12WX]

Cold front of yore.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s insane.