CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Congrats D.C. That's a defect with those. Assumes last 6 hrs is snow. Nope. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Any chance of decent squalls with this as the cold front pushes through? Even just a dusting on the end would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's a defect with those. Assumes last 6 hrs is snow. Nope. Of course, that was posted as a joke, no one believes DC is getting 6". But damn, it would be funny if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo Everything is wide open. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo Some areas around Buffalo will be over 100 inches before Jan 1. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thursday Night Rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after 10pm. Low around 34. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 54. Windy, with a southeast wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Rain and snow likely before 8pm, then a chance of snow between 8pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. That sustained for that long will do some damage for sure, everyone drinking dark and Stormy's.....in the dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: That sustained for that long will do some damage for sure, everyone drinking dark and Stormy's.....in the dark. Love dark and stormy’s lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everything is wide open. That’s what she said? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest. It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest. It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest. It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else. From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else. From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. Ok fair enough. I was referring to the “generational” monicker. That was premature and hype. Is it Impressive? Yes it looks to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest. It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. i think they meant to say generator-ational 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else. From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. If only it were snow. That would be generational would it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, SJonesWX said: i think they meant to say generator-ational yeah, I think I am going to set mine up outside before I leave for work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ok fair enough. I was referring to the “generational” monicker. That was premature and hype. Is it Impressive? Yes it looks to be. FWIW, I don't know if they'll be enough LES to really justify. It's subjective anyways..but it's going to be nuts there Friday into Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: yeah, I think I am going to set mine up outside before I leave for work tomorrow. I have 90lbs of propane jut in case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: FWIW, I don't know if they'll be enough LES to really justify. It's subjective anyways..but it's going to be nuts there Friday into Saturday. Yup I get it. We’ll see how it plays out for everybody there…and here. I'm not sold on the winds here yet…they almost always underwhelm for most here inland (unless along the coast, or on a mountain top), but maybe this will be the 1%er this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12z NAM seems to have cut back on the QPF here...I'll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, rimetree said: 12z NAM seems to have cut back on the QPF here...I'll take it. Dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Some of these projected wind gust on the 12z NAM 3k are pretty intense over a very large area at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: Dry slot? Yeah, seems like the last few runs have curtailed it and the initial round of rain doesn't seem as robust. Went from like 3+ inches down under 2" now. Hope it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some of these projected wind gust on the 12z NAM 3k are pretty intense over a very large area at peak. It’s going to be a cold dark Christmas Eve for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I am not totally sold on a higher-end wind event region-wide within the warm sector of this. I think we'll see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range and of course higher within the typically favored higher elevation areas but there is a decent inversion on soundings and low-level lapse rates aren't the greatest. All in all this will be a typical cool season dynamic wind event...nothing over the top impressive. But there could be a low topped line that organizes and could enhance wind potential locally. Winds will probably be more impressive with the CAA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s going to be a cold dark Christmas Eve for many. I'm afraid its going to be unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 73kts at Isles of Shoals Friday AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The AFD from GYX is a good statement to its potential, .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The forecast for a high impact storm system starting Thursday night and lasting through Friday night has changed little since the previous forecast package. On Thursday night stacked low pressure within a sharply negative 500 mb trough axis will approach from the Great Lakes region with a surface warm front lifting northward. This will result in overrunning precipitation breaking out over the CWA from southwest to northeast through the overnight hours. Boundary layer and surface temperatures across southern NH and coastal ME should be warm enough for this to just fall as plain rain but across the foothills and points north temperatures are expected to be cold enough for a period of mixed wintry precipitation. Later Thursday night temperatures aloft will continue to warm but ground temperatures will likely remain near the freezing mark and therefore locally slippery travel will be possible until temperatures warm to above freezing areawide by Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed should confidence for slippery travel increase as we near this event. We will then sit in the warm sector for much of Friday with temperatures warming into the middle 40s across the north to the middle 50s in southern NH and coastal ME. Increasing mixing of a southeasterly 75-100 kt 850 mb LLJ and 50-75 kt 925 mb jet will result in increasing wind gusts up to 40-55 mph from late morning onward, especially across the coastal plain, higher terrain, and downslope of the White Mountains. Across the foothills, a lingering inversion may limit wind gusts until later Friday afternoon, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph range. Given the potential high impact of winds of this magnitude and direction as well as the recent power outages from our last event, went ahead and hoisted a High Wind Watch for much of the region in order to provide more lead time to power crews. Rainfall will also increase through the day with ensemble means pointing towards PWATs increasing to around 1.00" amongst strong theta-e advection and dew points climbing well into the 40s. There is the potential for rainfall rates up to around 1"/hr and should this occur instances of flash flooding remain possible, especially where snow cover remains and the ground is frozen. A Flood Watch was not issued with this forecast package given the threat for river flooding will mostly be limited to Saturday but a watch may be needed in the near future. A potent cold front will then sweep across the forecast area from west to east on Friday afternoon and evening, bringing sharply colder temperatures and the potential for a period of damaging wind gusts. The region of greatest concern is across the coastal plain of ME, Seacoast of NH, and across the higher terrain where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. There is some potential for locally higher gusts across the Mid-Coast as this front crosses. This front may be accompanied by a fine line/squall line, which would increase the likelihood for wind damage. Once the front crosses the threat for heavy rainfall and damaging winds will diminish, although it will remain breezy through Friday night with gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front, allowing any remaining precipitation to transition to snow before ending and setting the stage for a potential flash freeze. This could result in rapidly deteriorating travel conditions on Friday evening through the overnight hours, especially since no salt will be left on area roadways after the heavy rainfall. Sub-freezing temperatures will then return behind this system through early next week along with gusty winds, sending wind chill values down into the single digits either side of zero. This will unfortunately exasperate the impacts from remaining power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am not totally sold on a higher-end wind event region-wide within the warm sector of this. I think we'll see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range and of course higher within the typically favored higher elevation areas but there is a decent inversion on soundings and low-level lapse rates aren't the greatest. All in all this will be a typical cool season dynamic wind event...nothing over the top impressive. But there could be a low topped line that organizes and could enhance wind potential locally. Winds will probably be more impressive with the CAA. There's a 'model error' climate that suggests not being too liberal with wind. I admit to being somewhat weary of that and letting it influence my sense of 'urgency' leading this, and recognizing some of those factors you note - it's like given any reason to limit and we bust wind headlines.. However, Ryan's been posting some rather impressive material over the last couple of days - eventually...one of these times, we'll get a break through. We did have that over SE zones a couple three years ago.... folks may or may not recall that? I can't re the specific dates - but there was pig wind signal which turned out both true and false. It was false here in the interior, but simultaneously OVER performed if anything over the SE coastal plain..etc. I have this event in mind too - though it's not a analytic comparison... just to point out that break through can take place. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Looks like things may have at least sped up a hair where this is now a Friday event rather than lingering into Saturday AM. Still have extremely low hopes for my Sat AM flight but maybe there is hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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