ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM starting the Berks into VT and NH (likely eventually ME) as snow. Another run....another tick east and stronger CAD. If this keeps up another 2 or 3 runs, they'll have a net gain up in NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Its really a shame we didn't have a HP anchored over QUE to pinch this warmth off as it progressed NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 My pack is down to 14". Whatever is left will be a glacier cover. Tough for deer and animals to dig through. I had not been down my hill since our 19" the other day. Much less snow down below. In Plymouth today there was even some grass showing. Looks like some roaring south winds up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Those surface temps and just off the deck are hanging very tough over NNH and WME on the Nam, That would certainly hold as a net gain in those areas verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Nam doing silly nam things . Warning.. don’t buy in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? The thing is we could see models all jump a step back west over the next day. Best to keep your expectations quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The thing is we could see models all jump a step back west over the next day. Best to keep your expectations quite low. I have none, just expecting rain and breezy conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer. The only model that had any snow in NW SNE was the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I have none, just expecting rain and breezy conditions Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The only model that had any snow in NW SNE was the Euro RGEM and NAM have it too now. I don't expect this to be a snow producer for most of SNE....but it could be for NNE and the increased CAD puts the higher winds at risk for not materializing....esp over the interior and further north you go. South coast and southeast areas prob still get them. The question is how far into the interior can high winds get? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Remember the great event of 1976, which crippled Buffalo. Only 4" fell, but the hurricane force gusts and plunging temps did the damage (drifting off Lake Erie helped too). 12"-18" will be insane in this case. But south of the city looks to get more....a lot more. It actually was in late January of 1977. BUF snowfall was large but far less than recent LES episodes, but the wind gusted near hurricane force, and some semis were nearly covered in drifts. Much less dramatic in Fort Kent but a memorable storm anyway, though it brought a comparatively modest 11", 10 of which came 1-9 AM. At 9 PM on Jan 28 the temp was 12°. By 6 AM it had popped up to 26 and 3 hours later it was 6°, both the mild and cold in SN+. Wind gusts to 50 and visibility between 100' and 1/4 mile all of Jan 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us No wind damage sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok Euro is 45 to 50 max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Maybe the models were seeing something for us a few days ago that reflected the setup, but they were just a bit ahead of themselves and we get next week instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looking kind of wedged for some areas, Trend on guidance has been ticking this a little east with more CAD over NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is 45 to 50 max Who cares ? Pull up bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok Yeah, maybe at the shore and select mountain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: Yeah, maybe at the shore and select mountain tops. Every location in SNE. Watch pressure fall/ rise couplet pre and post front especially when all hell breaks loose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares ? Pull up bufkit Come on man. You should know yourself that this is not a sentence stone forecast. Right now. His thoughts are what he's putting up to. Just get us prepared. But to say this is written in stone. It's like saying we're getting a blizzard the day after. You should know better than anyone on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Every location in SNE I don't buy it for a second, it never happens. This is not meant as a dig against Ryan, but when you work for a media Outlet such as his a little bit of massaging and hyping seems to be a necessity these days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Good prelim analysis from GYX on this event. Friday Afternoon and Evening: Sharp cold front knocks on our western door and crosses most of the forecast area by early Friday evening. This period will be when the strongest winds occur. Highest gusts continue to be expected on the coastal plain of Maine, the Seacoast of NH, and the higher terrain where gusts of around 60 MPH will be possible. The Midcoast may see a few gusts around 70 MPH around 00z Sat. For the rest of the area, we are generally expecting 35-50 MPH gusts, but they could ratchet upward to around 60 MPH for an hour or two period right ahead of the front and in any convection. There may be a fineline with the front that could bring down damaging winds also as the front crosses the region. Power outages are likely unfortunately. No wind headlines yet as were are still pretty far out there temporally. Even though confidence is growing in wind impacts, southerly LLJ events can be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I don't buy it for a second, it never happens. This is not meant as a dig against Ryan, but when you work for a media Outlet such as his a little bit of massaging and hyping seems to be a necessity these days lol OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol OK Sorry. It's just my personality. The older I get the more the media freaking annoys me. I do appreciate your forecasts and I used to be a weather Watcher for Brad back in the mid 80s. Hell, I still have a Paul Cousins wvit hurricane tracking chart! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I would watch for 50-65mph gusts. But I would not expect everyone to get those. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would watch for 50-65mph gusts. But I would not expect everyone to get those. Outages preceding bare ground and Xmas cold would sort of be pure grinch does that warm your heart DIT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Sorry Jeb Ginxy - I hope you all very soon get a whole lot of snow, good, deep pow with winds to blow it all around up there. Stay safe too. You live in snow country. You'll see big snows soon, it is inevitable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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