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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


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My pack is down to 14".   Whatever is left will be a glacier cover.  Tough for deer and animals to dig through.

I had not been down my hill since our 19" the other day.   Much less snow down below.  In  Plymouth today there was even some grass showing.  Looks like some roaring south winds up here.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us 

This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The only model that had any snow in NW SNE was the Euro 

RGEM and NAM have it too now. I don't expect this to be a snow producer for most of SNE....but it could be for NNE and the increased CAD puts the higher winds at risk for not materializing....esp over the interior and further north you go. South coast and southeast areas prob still get them. The question is how far into the interior can high winds get?

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Remember the great event of 1976, which crippled Buffalo.  Only 4" fell, but the hurricane force gusts and plunging temps did the damage (drifting off Lake Erie helped too).  12"-18" will be insane in this case.  But south of the city looks to get more....a lot more.

It actually was in late January of 1977.  BUF snowfall was large but far less than recent LES episodes, but the wind gusted near hurricane force, and some semis were nearly covered in drifts.   Much less dramatic in Fort Kent but a memorable storm anyway, though it brought a comparatively modest 11", 10 of which came 1-9 AM.  At 9 PM on Jan 28 the temp was 12°.  By 6 AM it had popped up to 26 and 3 hours later it was 6°, both the mild and cold in SN+.  Wind gusts to 50 and visibility between 100' and 1/4 mile all of Jan 29.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares ? Pull up bufkit 

FcvRG0F.jpg

Come on man. You should know yourself that this is not a sentence stone forecast. Right now. His thoughts are what he's putting up to. Just get us prepared. But to say this is written in stone. It's like saying we're getting a blizzard the day after. You should know better than anyone on here.

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Good prelim analysis from GYX on this event.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Sharp cold front knocks on our
western door and crosses most of the forecast area by early
Friday evening. This period will be when the strongest winds
occur. Highest gusts continue to be expected on the coastal
plain of Maine, the Seacoast of NH, and the higher terrain where
gusts of around 60 MPH will be possible. The Midcoast may see a
few gusts around 70 MPH around 00z Sat. For the rest of the
area, we are generally expecting 35-50 MPH gusts, but they
could ratchet upward to around 60 MPH for an hour or two period
right ahead of the front and in any convection. There may be a
fineline with the front that could bring down damaging winds
also as the front crosses the region. Power outages are likely
unfortunately. No wind headlines yet as were are still pretty
far out there temporally. Even though confidence is growing in
wind impacts, southerly LLJ events can be tricky.
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