"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[CoastalWx]

Nam is wedgy for the first part of this. Even in SNE it’s east winds and the strongest LLJ is ahead of warm front. Not sure it would strengthen much again from the south ahead of the cold front.

[CT Rain]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:19 AM, CoastalWx said:

Nam is wedgy for the first part of this. Even in SNE it’s east winds and the strongest LLJ is ahead of warm front. Not sure it would strengthen much again from the south ahead of the cold front.

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Yeah the other models were hinting at this earlier but the NAM is definitely pretty lame. 

[WinterWolf]

Of course it’s lame…SNE where wind comes to die. 

[NorEastermass128]

I’m cool with little wind. No need for property damage right before the holiday. 

[weathafella]

Looks like the rug may get pulled out from under Chicago weenies?

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:56 AM, weathafella said:

Looks like the rug may get pulled out from under Chicago weenies?

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Good…lol. No snow for them either. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:56 AM, weathafella said:

Looks like the rug may get pulled out from under Chicago weenies?

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Weak system on the models

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:58 AM, MJO812 said:

Weak system on the models

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Lol..what happened to the super polar vortex cyclone storm 963 mb? 

[FPizz]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:59 AM, WinterWolf said:

Lol..what happened to the super polar vortex cyclone storm 963 mb? 

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957 at hour 102

[weathafella]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:58 AM, MJO812 said:

Weak system on the models

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It’s more like load blown too early.  It’s occluded as it hits the lakes.

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2022 at 4:03 AM, FPizz said:

957 at hour 102

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  On 12/20/2022 at 4:04 AM, weathafella said:

It’s more like load blown too early.  It’s occluded as it hits the lakes.

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Yep it's also further east

Might be congrats Buffalo again really soon

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/20/2022 at 4:03 AM, FPizz said:

957 at hour 102

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Ya..that’s not too weak lol. What’s Anthony talking about it being weak? 

[Amped]

  On 12/20/2022 at 3:58 AM, MJO812 said:

Weak system on the models

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There's a second burst of deepening when the front hits the coast.

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2022 at 4:06 AM, Amped said:

There's a second burst of deepening when the front hits the coast.

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Yep saw that

What a lake effect outbreak

[Amped]

  On 12/20/2022 at 4:11 AM, MJO812 said:

Yep saw that

What a lake effect outbreak

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Also strong FGEN on the northern edge of the 850mb cold pool when the 500mb low closes off.   Going to be some strange looking bands of heavy snow.

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2022 at 4:19 AM, Amped said:

Also strong FGEN on the northern edge of the 850mb cold pool when the 500mb low closes off.   Going to be some strange looking bands of heavy snow.

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Alot of snow showers everywhere

[bristolri_wx]

Wow, those 925mb maps on Pivotal look a little crazy.  No guarantee that 925 winds mix down to the surface, but I'm looking at almost 36 hrs of 50kt+ winds at my location so lots of opportunities for high gusts.

EDIT: The wind gust maps on weather.us are not encouraging either. What a mess...

[cleetussnow]

  On 12/20/2022 at 2:12 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I can go 100 mph long as I got that plastic power

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Hmm many versions of this…also heard…”long as I got the almighty power”

[SnoSki14]

GFS almost looks like it wants to pop a secondary near the coast. 

[ineedsnow]

Inverted trough on alot of the GEFS? 

[Damage In Tolland]

[jbenedet]

Take temps/dews way up on Thursday. 

No -NAO

No snowpack in SNE

+SST anomalies

And the Canadian “cold tuck” will be with a strong and predominant relatively “warm” easterly fetch off the Atlantic given how far west this amping shortwave pumps UL heights.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/20/2022 at 12:58 PM, jbenedet said:

Take temps/dews way up on Thursday. 

No -NAO

No snowpack in SNE

+SST anomalies

And the Canadian “cold tuck” will be with a strong and predominant relatively “warm” easterly fetch off the Atlantic given how far west this amping shortwave pumps UL heights.

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65-70 for Dover?

[TalcottWx]

  On 12/20/2022 at 12:58 PM, jbenedet said:

Take temps/dews way up on Thursday. 

No -NAO

No snowpack in SNE

+SST anomalies

And the Canadian “cold tuck” will be with a strong and predominant relatively “warm” easterly fetch off the Atlantic given how far west this amping shortwave pumps UL heights.

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Any feedback on the geese locally, they have been grazing extensively. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/20/2022 at 12:58 PM, jbenedet said:

Take temps/dews way up on Thursday. 

No -NAO

No snowpack in SNE

+SST anomalies

And the Canadian “cold tuck” will be with a strong and predominant relatively “warm” easterly fetch off the Atlantic given how far west this amping shortwave pumps UL heights.

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I got a snowpack here 

[MJO812]

Areas near Buffallo will have over 100 inches in December after this weekend 

Insane

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks like euro gives several inches to some NNE Resorts friday am and the mild up lasts about 12 hours . This doesn’t really seem like a big disaster to me for nne ski areas or cne really 

[Modfan2]

Ground pretty saturated from last week; thankfully for the flash freeze because could be run off issues

 

[ROOSTA]

This event might have a few curves yet to unfold in model-land.
So, you're saying there's STILL A CHANCE?
What a total disaster for travelling!!!    

[hammerz_nailz]

  On 12/19/2022 at 10:20 PM, cleetussnow said:

I don’t care if it rains or freezes

’long as I got my plastic Jesus

riding on the dashboard of my car

 

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I don't care if it rains or snowses

As long as I got my plastic Moses