WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Same here. BOX hitting the wind aspect pretty hard. I despise wind events... ah well. As mentioned as this low pressure system goes under rapid intensification to potentially a sub 970 mb low pressure system as it lifts into Quebec. A powerful SSE low level jet at 850 mb is depicted to be 4-5 standard deviations above normal along with indications of it falling outside the model climatology on our situational awareness table. The GFS/ECMWF are showing the potential for the 850 mb jet to max out over 80-90 knots...which is quite impressive for the global models. The big question is how much of this wind will be able to be tapped given a south to southeast direction; which is often the hardest to mix down. However...some of it often does find its way down in these highly anomalous patterns given rapid pressure changes and potential fine lines etc. We are thinking that a period of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts appears reasonable for much of the region. We could end up on the lower end of those numbers if winds underperforms, but a low risk for wind gusts to exceed 60-65 mph in a situation where more mixes down. All we can say at this point is the potential exists for a period of damaging wind gusts and power outages. I’ll take the under at this point. If on Thursday night it’s still looking impressive…might take it a bit more seriously. Winds almost always way under perform. Maybe this will be the one of the few times it doesn’t? But as of now, I’m not buying in. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Winds will disappoint here, no doubt. But will gas up the generator just in case 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll take the under at this point. If on Thursday night it’s still looking impressive…might take it a bit more seriously. Winds almost always way under perform. Maybe this will be the one of the few times it doesn’t? But as of now, I’m not buying in. It is pretty location specific. Some exposed areas do well. My backyard is typically on the lower end, if that. Hope that streak continues. My bathtub will be filled just in case (no power = no well = no toilet flushing) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Gonna need break out some classic shit for this storm. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said: Only Jesus knows exactly what is going to happen, I have seen so many forecasts blown one day before a predicted a big blizzard and they got nothing. One example was when they canceled all the classes in New York City because they were supposed to get 12 to 24 or 24 -36 inches of snow And the day of the storm was supposed to hit they didn’t get a flake. Friend of cpickles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!! It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It's going to be an interesting and historical moment on Friday when it's 20F and snowing in DCA while it's raining on the summits of Mt. Washington, Mansfield, and Marcy. I think it's happened before, but still rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!! It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast. A classic sign that we are not in a favorable pattern at this moment in time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 PAC NW was baking for years while we undressed. Just their turn now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's going to be an interesting and historical moment on Friday when it's 20F and snowing in DCA while it's raining on the summits of Mt. Washington, Mansfield, and Marcy. I think it's happened before, but still rare. I’ll sell backside snow there. Maybe a few flurries to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!! It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast. 4-8 expected wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: A classic sign that we are not in a favorable pattern at this moment in time The only thing that we could look at is a positive is that the pattern is likely to change. Once they go negative and we go positive for the PNA that's when we should see some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds. Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll sell backside snow there. Maybe a few flurries to end. I'm with you. It's just funny to look at the raw hourly GFS output and see that unusual weather reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 @CoastalWx Fri mid morning 2022/12/23 Fri 10:27 AM 11.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, rimetree said: Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles... Lol I read that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: @CoastalWx Fri mid morning 2022/12/23 Fri 10:27 AM 11.64 For east facing coastline, we are lucky winds more SE. Still gonna be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, rimetree said: Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles... That book was the base story for “the day after tomorrow”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 hours ago, cleetussnow said: I don’t care if it rains or freezes ’long as I got my plastic Jesus riding on the dashboard of my car I can go 100 mph long as I got that plastic power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For east facing coastline, we are lucky winds more SE. Still gonna be an issue. 3 to 4 feet surge South South East facing beaches ACK should get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: PAC NW was baking for years while we undressed. Just their turn now. Some articles out there tonight suggest it may never snow again, just go on social media. Not naming any names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3 to 4 feet surge South South East facing beaches ACK should get smoked I’ll grab my boogie board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 52 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: The only thing that we could look at is a positive is that the pattern is likely to change. Once they go negative and we go positive for the PNA that's when we should see some action. Absolutely. I'm just curious to see what the guidance does after this next one ends up in Canada. Could the large storm reshuffle the deck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 So, what, if anything, does this portend for possible thunderstorm activity on Friday? It seems that earlier it was hinted at as a strong possibility, but now, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Some articles out there tonight suggest it may never snow again, just go on social media. Not naming any names Mmmmmm, well the word media in any context is tainted beyond belief these days (choice disparaging word omitted) so it could be anyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Blowup lawn ornaments airborn on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds. That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jebman said: That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021. Sorry Jeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Jebman said: That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021. Was down in Austin this time last year. I can see why. The trees were having their way with the power lines - no trimming in years, poles shaved off from accidents so there's only half the thickness left, looked like Mexico's grid in the older neighborhoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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