UnitedWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking the storm I have been as well, however my weenie will remain objective and logical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus won't help us here. Maybe jobu can 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus won't help us here. Well someone needs to take the wheel, especially how this place has been the last couple days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, rgwp96 said: Maybe jobu can Jobu needs a refill 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And consensus guidance. I think this is more to the point. To be accurate, the CFS did shift the primary from it's 12z run yesterday from over Ottawa, to Jackman ME... and if the consensus modeling began shifting similarly, eyebrows would be raised.... That said, on 12/15 the consensus guidance was a great-look setup for a major coastal and in just one day the consensus morphed to a GL special with only the GFS still in denial... I suppose that's why its called 'guidance' and why wx is so fascinating albeit frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said: What do you guys make of This? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus won't help us here. No, But they'll be plenty using his name in vain....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Well someone needs to take the wheel, especially how this place has been the last couple days I don’t care if it rains or freezes ’long as I got my plastic Jesus riding on the dashboard of my car 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus won't help us here. He's coming back with his lawyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 1:47 PM, Sn0waddict said: GFS and EURO in agreement at almost 200 hours out. What could possibly go wrong?? Everything went wrong 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everything went wrong To be fair the Euro/CMC only had a couple runs with a good solution. The rest were pretty crappy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Dan76 said: He's coming back with his lawyer. Do you remember when somebody on the forum threatened to sue @moneypitmikefor religious blasphemy? It was out of control and was L0L considering half of the NE board is probably Roman Catholic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: To be fair the Euro/CMC only had a couple runs with a good solution. The rest were pretty crappy. 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said: Only Jesus knows exactly what is going to happen, I have seen so many forecasts blown one day before a predicted a big blizzard and they got nothing. One example was when they canceled all the classes in New York City because they were supposed to get 12 to 24 or 24 -36 inches of snow And the day of the storm was supposed to hit they didn’t get a flake. Not only am I pretty sure Jesus doesn’t know, I’m equally sure that he doesn’t care. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Anyone have access to a plane and some chemicals ( silver iodine) or something . Can we modify the shortwave or the blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 51 minutes ago, 512high said: Welcome back Dom, hope you had a great summer/fall... Thanks! You too. Back just in time for winter, or lack thereof. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Really? Snow east of the low? Nah no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Complexities in the failing cyclogenic feed-backs are causing this thing to 'wobble' considerably in very recent guidance cycles. There's too weak of ambient baroclinicity/vague frontal slopes in the OV and lower Lakes region, as this very deep (-4 SD ) 500 mb anomaly and very powerful associated jet/jetlett maxums are fisting their way around the under belly and outpacing the polar front. This thing is missing an anchor point/foot I'm noticing there is weaker gradient and mid level winds on the northern side of the 500 mb barrel, and that's a red flag for a sfc position too far NW of support when you see that - pick a heart ache that went out to sea on us if you need a memory refresher and odds are you'll look that up in library and see something similar... The 18z really pressed the mid level vortex so far E that at this point it's outrunning support for the previous sfc low location(s). It almost looks devoid of a real cyclostrophic axis and is blown open like a broad generalized area of deep PP anomaly. Very strang looking system... "as modeled" - wondering if this thing may change in future guidance. This strange abnormal look and abandoning primary aspect could be a sign of trying to change to a different scenario in future runs. No I'm not saying we're back on for snow per se- not even close.. .Just that this systems handling is in question. That is all... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, George001 said: Snow east of the low? Nah no way I think it’s more behind the cold front. But, that low is wrapping cold air all the way around so yea in theory it could snow east of the low center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GFS BUFKIT is violent. I saw 60kts at PYM. Then many gust to 48-52kts and change after fropa. Crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS BUFKIT is violent. I saw 60kts at PYM. Then many gust to 48-52kts and change after fropa. Crazy. There is so much damage coming for the entire 6 state region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is so much damage coming for the entire 6 state region It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive. Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive. Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. Bodies unburied by the wind and blown clear into NY state? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bodies unburied by the wind and blown clear into NY state? We're afraid to see what's buried in your yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Not only am I pretty sure Jesus doesn’t know, I’m equally sure that he doesn’t care. And with that one of our very few female posters just showed herself out. carry on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Complexities in the failing cyclogenic feed-backs are causing this thing to 'wobble' considerably in very recent guidance cycles. There's too weak of ambient baroclinicity/vague frontal slopes in the OV and lower Lakes region, as this very deep (-4 SD ) 500 mb anomaly and very powerful associated jet/jetlett maxums are fisting their way around the under belly and outpacing the polar front. This thing is missing an anchor point/foot I'm noticing there is weaker gradient and mid level winds on the northern side of the 500 mb barrel, and that's a red flag for a sfc position too far NW of support when you see that - pick a heart ache that went out to sea on us if you need a memory refresher and odds are you'll look that up in library and see something similar... The 18z really pressed the mid level vortex so far E that at this point it's outrunning support for the previous sfc low location(s). It almost looks devoid of a real cyclostrophic axis and is blown open like a broad generalized area of deep PP anomaly. Very strang looking system... "as modeled" - wondering if this thing may change in future guidance. This strange abnormal look and abandoning primary aspect could be a sign of trying to change to a different scenario in future runs. No I'm not saying we're back on for snow per se- not even close.. .Just that this systems handling is in question. That is all... Subtle but squinty-eyed hints in recent guidance of the bolded paradigm - we'll see if they continue on to a different scenario (elongated/weaker or double-barrel) or hold to a single stemwinder boring it's way into central Quebec per current consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: We're afraid to see what's buried in your yard. Blow up dolls and hot dogs would be my guess. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive. Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes. Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes. Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. Yeah your area is going to rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes. Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. Same here. BOX hitting the wind aspect pretty hard. I despise wind events... ah well. As mentioned as this low pressure system goes under rapid intensification to potentially a sub 970 mb low pressure system as it lifts into Quebec. A powerful SSE low level jet at 850 mb is depicted to be 4-5 standard deviations above normal along with indications of it falling outside the model climatology on our situational awareness table. The GFS/ECMWF are showing the potential for the 850 mb jet to max out over 80-90 knots...which is quite impressive for the global models. The big question is how much of this wind will be able to be tapped given a south to southeast direction; which is often the hardest to mix down. However...some of it often does find its way down in these highly anomalous patterns given rapid pressure changes and potential fine lines etc. We are thinking that a period of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts appears reasonable for much of the region. We could end up on the lower end of those numbers if winds underperforms, but a low risk for wind gusts to exceed 60-65 mph in a situation where more mixes down. All we can say at this point is the potential exists for a period of damaging wind gusts and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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