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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And consensus guidance.  

I think this is more to the point.  To be accurate, the CFS did shift the primary from it's 12z run yesterday from over Ottawa, to Jackman ME... and if the consensus modeling began shifting similarly, eyebrows would be raised....  That said, on 12/15 the consensus guidance was a great-look setup for a major coastal and in just one day the consensus morphed to a GL special with only the GFS still in denial...  I suppose that's why its called 'guidance' and why wx is so fascinating albeit frustrating. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

Only Jesus knows exactly what is going to happen, I have seen so many forecasts blown one day before a predicted a big blizzard and they got nothing. One example was when they canceled all the classes in New York City because they were supposed to get 12 to 24 or 24 -36 inches of snow And the day of the storm was supposed to hit they didn’t get a flake.

Not only am I pretty sure Jesus doesn’t know, I’m equally sure that he doesn’t care.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Complexities in the failing cyclogenic feed-backs are causing this thing to 'wobble' considerably in very recent guidance cycles.  There's too weak of ambient baroclinicity/vague frontal slopes in the OV and lower Lakes region, as this very deep (-4 SD ) 500 mb anomaly and very powerful associated jet/jetlett maxums are fisting their way around the under belly and outpacing the polar front.  This thing is missing an anchor point/foot

I'm noticing there is weaker gradient and mid level winds on the northern side of the 500 mb barrel, and that's a red flag for a sfc position too far NW of support when you see that - pick a heart ache that went out to sea on us if you need a memory refresher and odds are you'll look that up in library and see something similar... 

The 18z really pressed the mid level vortex so far E that at this point it's outrunning support for the previous sfc low location(s).  It almost looks devoid of a real cyclostrophic axis and is blown open like a broad generalized area of deep PP anomaly.   Very strang looking system... "as modeled" - wondering if this thing may change in future guidance.   This strange abnormal look and abandoning primary aspect could be a sign of trying to change to a different scenario in future runs.  

No I'm not saying we're back on for snow per se- not even close.. .Just that this systems handling is in question.  That is all...

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is so much damage coming for the entire 6 state region 

It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive.

Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive.

Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. 

Bodies unburied by the wind and blown clear into NY state?

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wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Complexities in the failing cyclogenic feed-backs are causing this thing to 'wobble' considerably in very recent guidance cycles.  There's too weak of ambient baroclinicity/vague frontal slopes in the OV and lower Lakes region, as this very deep (-4 SD ) 500 mb anomaly and very powerful associated jet/jetlett maxums are fisting their way around the under belly and outpacing the polar front.  This thing is missing an anchor point/foot

I'm noticing there is weaker gradient and mid level winds on the northern side of the 500 mb barrel, and that's a red flag for a sfc position too far NW of support when you see that - pick a heart ache that went out to sea on us if you need a memory refresher and odds are you'll look that up in library and see something similar... 

The 18z really pressed the mid level vortex so far E that at this point it's outrunning support for the previous sfc low location(s).  It almost looks devoid of a real cyclostrophic axis and is blown open like a broad generalized area of deep PP anomaly.   Very strang looking system... "as modeled" - wondering if this thing may change in future guidance.   This strange abnormal look and abandoning primary aspect could be a sign of trying to change to a different scenario in future runs.  

No I'm not saying we're back on for snow per se- not even close.. .Just that this systems handling is in question.  That is all...

 

Subtle but squinty-eyed hints in recent guidance of the bolded paradigm - we'll see if they continue on to a different scenario (elongated/weaker or double-barrel) or hold to a single stemwinder boring it's way into central Quebec per current consensus.    

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It even has 54kts at MHT. We’ll see if it’s more wedgy as we get closer, but man that’s impressive.

Going to be an impressive downslope signal off the west side of the Greens. Mitch blown into The Hudson river. 

Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes.  Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes.  Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. 

 

Yeah your area is going to rip. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Lol. BTV going all in on a big time wind event for the mtns and western slopes.  Its going to absolutely rip in my backyard, always does in these setup, and this looks pretty high end. Damage certainly in play here I feel like. 

 

Same here.  BOX hitting the wind aspect pretty hard.   I despise wind events...  ah well.  

As mentioned as this low pressure system goes under rapid
intensification to potentially a sub 970 mb low pressure system as
it lifts into Quebec. A powerful SSE low level jet at 850 mb is
depicted to be 4-5 standard deviations above normal along with
indications of it falling outside the model climatology on our
situational awareness table. The GFS/ECMWF are showing the potential
for the 850 mb jet to max out over 80-90 knots...which is quite
impressive for the global models. The big question is how much of
this wind will be able to be tapped given a south to southeast
direction; which is often the hardest to mix down. However...some of
it often does find its way down in these highly anomalous patterns
given rapid pressure changes and potential fine lines etc. We are
thinking that a period of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts appears reasonable
for much of the region. We could end up on the lower end of those
numbers if winds underperforms, but a low risk for wind gusts to
exceed 60-65 mph in a situation where more mixes down. All we can
say at this point is the potential exists for a period of damaging
wind gusts and power outages.
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