"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This appears more historic at 500 mb than the surface ... either that, or the models are having a tough time working out the sfc response to all that obscene mechanical power going on aloft.

I compared the Cleveland Super Bomb with this one, as modeled. The 'Bomb was down to 953 just before it left the U.S. for southern Ontario.  This one, blending the operational version ( which for all intents and purposes are in agreement with one another) it appears 978, roughly as much as 25 mb shallower.

Here's the difference.  The sfc +PP are impressive over far NW Plains as modeled, with a node there near 1050 mb! And it is spatially large and sprawling ... there's arming to a second node that's 1040 N of Maine.  So the ambient or environmental base state is above normal pressure.  That means at a 980 mb low is deeper than we may think relative to that elevated state.  The 'Bomb did not drill to hell and back amid that same ambient sfc pressure. In fact, the 12z sfc chart on January 26, 1978 featured a modest 1032 mb high node, situated quite far away west of James Bay.  

Feb 1978 did that, with a well dug down to 974 mb at max depth, against a much higher ambient pressure domain... arm reaching across Ontario.  Not that either 980 or 974 are shallow lows, either..  But the actual situation gradient is vastly more important in assessing aspects such as wind - in particular. 

As an old school quick metric, 1mb ~= 1kt, such that d(p) ~= max wind.    In the case of the Cleveland Super Bomb, 1032 -953 ( and one could argue that since the 1032 node was so far away that it may be a bit of a stretch to use that as the high end) = 79 kts.  In the case of February 1978, this works out to 76kts.  Close enough to what actually was reported in max gusts in either storm of lore to satisfy the approximate metric of 1mb to 1kt.

As modeled/said mean above, this event looks like ~ 1050 mb against 975-ish.   So 75kts. 

That's not here, though. The low level PGF is what it is in our sector of the cyclone.  Plus, with that +PP situation N-NE of New England, we may end up elevating some of the wind over a boundary that proves a little more retarded ...hard to say.   I would be worried about ORD-IND and Michigan, as the low really bottoms out in that vicinity, and there's not a lot of wind restoring mass into that core, prior to the low then moving away...  That's setting up a very exceptional allobaric circumstance... It's like an eye-wall look there --> explosive isallobaric wind potential.  I lived in southern lower Michigan for a little over a decade many ...many moons ago.  I have seen some of these backside wind bombs take place, where the low slips past and then there is 60 mph wind gusts that rose out of no where.  This looks like an opportunity for something like that.  It's different than that 2005, December "sting jet" ... it's more purely a wind acceleration do to restoring extreme short range d(p).

But we can have drama here ...unrelated to that type of phenom.  There's likely to be a hefty WCB jet feeding this beast... That leading edge of the cold air/front is outpacing enough to flip some decent QPF to a W -E flash transition ... but that also means that there's going to be some pretty chaotic instability/omega trying to move parcels vertically through those elevated wind wind layers.  You know...momentum transfer...  

The Feb blizzard was only 984mb at max depth...but like you said, with an obscenely high ambient pressure.

[MJO812]

Gfs further east

Chicago is back in the game 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Has supply picked up?  I got one installed in April, but that was after a year of waiting.  

Yes it has! At least for now... We've installed two in the last month and I had both within 7 days of ordering.

[ORH_wxman]

12z guidance so far is pushing more and more of the TPV lobe eastward.....it's not going to help most of us, but it will help reduce the amount of time the warm sector parks in New England....so it may be beneficial for ski areas.

[Cuteirishgirl25]

Bottom right hand corner from the nam but what do my Eyes see a low  pressure developing in the southeast. 12 z gfs is starting to sniff it out as well. Lots of surprises on the way!

[Go Kart Mozart]

Really?

[wxeyeNH]

Friday is setting up to be a travel nightmare, especially for the airlines.  This is the 12Z GFS wind gust map.  Chicago and the big east coast cities getting blasted, and heavy precip too.  Lots of stranded Christmas passengers.

[greenmtnwx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z guidance so far is pushing more and more of the TPV lobe eastward.....it's not going to help most of us, but it will help reduce the amount of time the warm sector parks in New England....so it may be beneficial for ski areas.

I was going to ask you any way the ski areas in VT can minimize the damage here. Conditions are great now and going to be cold both sides of late week but can they escape without obliterating their coverage. What would we look for? 
 

Be nice if they could minimize the warm sector and maybe squeeze some snow out in the front and back end. 

[Amped]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I can do without power disruptions 3 days before Xmas.

Plenty of people still not grasping how much they are going to hate this storm.

[cleetussnow]

Paging George...Paging George. It's snowing east of the LP center.  

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Friday is setting up to be a travel nightmare, especially for the airlines.  This is the 12Z GFS wind gust map.  Chicago and the big east coast cities getting blasted, and heavy precip too.  Lots of stranded Christmas passengers.

Yeah most of us all rip some 60-70+ mph gusts in a 2-3 hour window . Will be wild 

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Friday is setting up to be a travel nightmare, especially for the airlines.  This is the 12Z GFS wind gust map.  Chicago and the big east coast cities getting blasted, and heavy precip too.  Lots of stranded Christmas passengers.

Looks like a flash freeze as well. Eastern parts go from Upper 50s/lower 60s to low-mid 20s in ~6 hours. 

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah most of us all rip some 60-70+ mph gusts in a 2-3 hour window . Will be wild 

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

A lot of damage... and Stevie Nicks levels of Coke

[HinghamBoss]

Any chance we can whiten the ground in Eastern Mass on the back end of this Grinch to at least doctor the scene and qualify for a White Christmas?

[metagraphica]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah most of us all rip some 60-70+ mph gusts in a 2-3 hour window . Will be wild 

Tons of dead oaks and widow makers in the woods, and one in particular hanging over my driveway.  Let's rip em all down!!  #DAMAGE

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Any chance we can whiten the ground in Eastern Mass on the back end of this Grinch to at least doctor the scene and qualify for a White Christmas?

I'll sell back end snows outside the mtns.

[SouthCoastMA]

The GFS still has a signal for 1-2" OES on the Cape Christmas Eve day, from the wsw flow. None of the other models are as bullish

[ORH_wxman]

More and more CAD showing up on these 12z runs....prob will start reducing the wind risk over the interior (esp like CNE) if that keeps up.

[CoastalWx]

What an aviation nightmare this week. Get out early if you can. Starts in the PAC NW today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

More and more CAD showing up on these 12z runs....prob will start reducing the wind risk over the interior (esp like CNE) if that keeps up.

Good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What an aviation nightmare this week. Get out early if you can. Starts in the PAC NW today.

That's what I said on FB....people mocking me, since its going to be rain on the east coast, but a system of this magnitude will have a ripple effect.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

More and more CAD showing up on these 12z runs....prob will start reducing the wind risk over the interior (esp like CNE) if that keeps up.

ESE-SE winds vs srly. Definitely wedgy, esp Maine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ME VS Suslak. Definitely pick that wedgy, esp w My tongue.

Raunchy.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

More and more CAD showing up on these 12z runs....prob will start reducing the wind risk over the interior (esp like CNE) if that keeps up.

As long as Northern Maine can escape with little rain damage this weekend…I’ll be happy. Hoping to head up Monday morning the 26th.  They got a lot of snow the last couple days…so they’re in a decent position currently.  Hate to see em get wiped out…that would be very upsetting.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As long as Northern Maine can escape with little rain damage this weekend…I’ll be happy. Hoping to head up Monday morning the 26th.  They got a lot of snow the last couple days…so they’re in a decent position currently.  Hate to see em get wiped out…that would be very upsetting.  

They'll get rain, but the amount of residence time of the warm sector could be minimal up there if the 12z trends keep up....so hopefully the pack doesn't take a big hit.

[dryslot]

Just finished up one install at home, It may get its first workout friday if this verifies.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

They'll get rain, but the amount of residence time of the warm sector could be minimal up there if the 12z trends keep up....so hopefully the pack doesn't take a big hit.

Thanks Will…hoping that’s the case. 

[Whineminster]

Take em down folks, ripped and destroyed just in time for Xmas.  Raw ham and turkey eaten by all, in the dark. 

[SJonesWX]

44 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Paging George...Paging George. It's snowing east of the LP center.  

it's doing that because that "L" is making its own cold.