"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The opposite of what you want to see on the gfs.

 

SE ridge won’t be denied, always hedge with more trough west and ridge east due to AGW

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

SE ridge won’t be denied, always hedge with more trough west and ridge east due to AGW

There is no SE ridge in place prior. It’s forced because of the s/w out west. This makes no sense. 

[MJO812]

Gfs crushes Chicago 

This sucks

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

SE ridge won’t be denied, always hedge with more trough west and ridge east due to AGW

Man o man you try hard though

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no SE ridge in place prior. It’s forced because of the s/w out west. This makes no sense. 

He’s trying too hard even for his low-bar standards.
 

Unless he’s just exponentially more ignorant than I gave him credit for back when he was nor’easter27. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no SE ridge in place prior. It’s forced because of the s/w out west. This makes no sense. 

Check out the cold front. Also for NNE peeps in the mountains. Another power taking thump before the rain and warmth. But that thump will allow the rain to be absorbed. No lipstick on a pig but there is a smidgen of good news for ski areas.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s trying too hard even for his low-bar standards.
 

Unless he’s just exponentially more ignorant than I gave him credit for back when he was nor’easter27. 

I go with the later

[moneypitmike]

She's a beaut, Clarke.

 

[Chris12WX]

Can we turn this into a low topped squall line for Wiz? Best winds verbatim on GFS miss offshore. 

[cleetussnow]

Its snowing east of low, technically speaking…

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS has gone back west, whole scale, with the circulation medium from off the west coast to off the coast, across the last two cycle.

It's a disappointment for winter enthusiasts locally, after seeing some east jogs during yesterday.  This appears more likely now, based upon these recent trends, as unlikely to overall come east.  

Looping the hemispheric view of the EPS and GEFs ... it appears the typical gestation of -EPO, into a +PNA, with the EPO's decaying toward neutral, is underway through the week, but the timing of this impressive embedded wave is just too soon.  If it waits another two days and lets the +PNA --> PNAP forcing mature before getting injected over the continent, it would have ( likelier...) descended through Manitoba/MN en route to a more E position at max amplitude..etc...

If we want to get into the SPV helping out by blocking it from turn polar ward east of ORD, ...salvaging/delaying lead cold erosion, that's certainly true but we just don't seem to be modulating in that direction.    I do think that if there is a 1040-ish mb high pressure N of Maine, there is a standard delay and assumption of too fast penetration N-E of NYC ... I wouldn't care to case if that means snow or not.    

[dryslot]

Lets get it to track even further west so we end up getting slotted, That would be a win.

[MJO812]

Wow

[GaryS]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too black or white ...   Scientific wisdom says this is a much too stringent perspective.   Particularly ...the use of that word, "worthless" -

It would only be that way if the undergirding of climate system was excessively different - which it is not.   This is not Venus ... despite the entire state of the climate change zeitgeist. 

The zeitgeist is what it is, because unfortunately .. .humanity does little based upon verbal warning. They have to be struck by discomfort, failing that, fear, to engine motivation to change.  

I've often mused, 'humanity sets upon the proverbial rail tracks, and as the iron beneath their feet has begun to whir ... they don't move off the track - they argue about the style of shoes they wear to the engagement.' 

That's because it is an evolutionary trap ( perhaps, irony...) that we do not really respond to threats unless they directly appeal to the standard senses:  sight, sound, taste, touch, or smell.  If you warn someone of impending doom... they look up and try to observe its truth, utilizing these senses.  But, if they look up and see the impending intersect with the "train" as an observable destiny... they will go great strides to avoid said intersect.  

Climate change is in that folly of evolutionary space.  It doesn't have any advocates that directly expose to these standard senses - although ... indirectly? Sure, as we are seeing evidences in the system that CC's slow cook is a destructive influence now. It is thus no wonder why there are more obvious movements and legislation, in general, around the 'responsible' governments of the world. It's because even so much as an indirect observation framework ... begins to appeal to a sense of realism.   As an aside, ... human ingenuity has outpaced the biological method for downloading information about the surrounding environment.  These "senses" ?  They are nature's "USB ports"

The way to compensate for the "toad in pan of water," unwitting experiment humanity is turned up the heat on itself ( if one is less aware of that cruel experiment, this metaphor won't work...), is to use fear.   It's an unfortunate circumstance that CC has to be over-sold in order to motivate change...  An overselling that leads to people applying CC to every thunderstorm.  Including ...odd patterns of behavior that failed an analog.  Analogs failed in 1980, too.   

The dial on the Global temperature has moved between .85 and 1 deg C, in the last 100 years.  It's not an all or nothing... The cliche, 'shades of gray' is unfortunately apropos.    

 

My father-in-law who is now retired was head of the Canadian Weather Service Atlantic division and also Canada's Chief hurricane tracker and he does not believe in climate change the way it's perceived today. The climate has changed on its own for eons without the help of mankind. He believes any change in climate is natural to the planet. He believes that pollution is one thing and climate change is another so the way Tip has described it would be similar to his thoughts.

[moneypitmike]

At least Tip's rainstorm moves out in time to bring some cooler temps by Christmas morning.

 

[forkyfork]

the overall polar vortex and n hem. cold pool is shrinking. that's probably playing a role too

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lets get it to track even further west so we end up getting slotted, That would be a win.

A candidate for post of the thread!

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lets get it to track even further west so we end up getting slotted, That would be a win.

 

And wind it up so much that  it does a complete rearranging of the chairs on the Titanic and we start from scratch.  

I think that's the best outcome.

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

She's a beaut, Clarke.

 

Check out the fraud rain changing to snow in western CT

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

She's a beaut, Clarke.

 

wiped clean to Jay Peak!  wow.

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

At least Tip's rainstorm moves out in time to bring some cooler temps by Christmas morning.

That's a frigid airmass on the backside. It ends up moderating considerably for us on SW flow, but that run has DFW flirting with 0F Fri AM. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

That's a frigid airmass on the backside. It ends up moderating considerably for us on SW flow, but that run has DFW flirting with 0F Fri AM. 

Oncor conference calls ftl. 

[MJO812]

Cmc is more west

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, GaryS said:

My father-in-law who is now retired was head of the Canadian Weather Service Atlantic division and also Canada's Chief hurricane tracker and he does not believe in climate change the way it's perceived today. The climate has changed on its own for eons without the help of mankind. He believes any change in climate is natural to the planet. He believes that pollution is one thing and climate change is another so the way Tip has described it would be similar to his thoughts.

This is a curious statement that I'm often encountering in the denier narrative(s).   Because it is true, yet ... at the same time, it says nothing about whether the climate is changing because of the actions of humanity, now.  Using its truth to imply humans don't cause CC now, is a falsity.  

The comprehension of what I wrote:  clearly discusses how the climate change is oversold - but it muses further that it has to be, because of human limitation of perceived causality when in the absence of a direct experience.  

It says nothing in support or against whether human's are a factor in climate change.

Which they are

There is, however, in attempting to attribute CC ...that's being done too liberally.  Humanity is causing a lot of CC, because of the 500 years of recent advancing combustion power generation ...etc..etc... But the amount that has changed doesn't cancel the usefulness of analogs.  

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

And wind it up so much that  it does a complete rearranging of the chairs on the Titanic and we start from scratch.  

I think that's the best outcome.

Agree

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the overall polar vortex and n hem. cold pool is shrinking. that's probably playing a role too

As our the warm SSTs to our east. That's definitely amping up the ridging east of New England 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

Perhaps a rival to the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

 

 

Head to Pit 2 just for wind.

[jbenedet]

Those geese never stopped grazing in Portsmouth. 

But models!