"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

awt

You didn't think or post anything until the models changed. Fraud 

[Damage In Tolland]

Strong low-pressure with potentially high winds & heavy precip
  late Thu & Fri,

Regarding wind
potential...both ensembles and deterministic guidance have a strong
wind signal, with low level (925 mb) southerly jet 65-75 kt late Thu
ngt into Fri. Both ensembles have high probs of 2m temps 50+F.
Deterministic has 2m temps in the mid 50s, thus enhancing wind
threat.  

[Kitz Craver]

My gawd close the shades. 06z GFS looks like something you’d see in late April 

[Ginx snewx]

This explains a lot.

 

[Torch Tiger]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You didn't think or post anything until the models changed. Fraud 

high?

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This explains a lot.

 

Weve talked a lot about the younger generation being spoiled utterly rotten with snow. I don’t think anyone gets overly swayed by the argument though because it’s hard to force someone to understand experiences  they weren’t a part of in-person. 
 

But if we keep up the general crappy flavor of winters that has plagued us the last few seasons for another 5-10 years then maybe they will understand a little more. 

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw, the 06z euro looks like it would go east a bit from 00z. It’s pressing the PV a bit further east and the trough axis a bit east as well. 
 

I still think we would need another solid tick in that direction today to make this more interesting. 

[UnitedWx]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This explains a lot.

 

I tried explaining the last year. I THINK a lot of the complaining here is from younger people who didn't have to deal with most of the 80s and first couple years in the 90s. Some have gotten very spoiled 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, the 06z euro looks like it would go east a bit from 00z. It’s pressing the PV a bit further east and the trough axis a bit east as well. 
 

I still think we would need another solid tick in that direction today to make this more interesting. 

Things have trended positive for NNE and ski areas. Both GFS and EURO are now SWFE up there. Thump snow to drizzle warm sector to flash freeze.

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weve talked a lot about the younger generation being spoiled utterly rotten with snow. I don’t think anyone gets overly swayed by the argument though because it’s hard to force someone to understand experiences  they weren’t a part of in-person. 
 

But if we keep up the general crappy flavor of winters that has plagued us the last few seasons for another 5-10 years then maybe they will understand a little more. 

Exactly.  Me,  having the blizzard of '78 as the experience that started my interest in weather... and then living through the next decade really does color my opinion.  Certainly more so than someone who's say 30 years old 

[Kitz Craver]

We can all eat figgy pudding while anxiously awaiting the PBP at the picnic tables. Merry Christmas to all!

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Things have trended positive for NNE and ski areas. Both GFS and EURO are now SWFE up there. Thump snow to drizzle warm sector to flash freeze.

Still warm sectoring them but not as long now. Would like to see more ticks flatter today. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Exactly.  Me,  having the blizzard of '78 as the experience that started my interest in weather... and then living through the next decade really does color my opinion.  Certainly more so than someone who's say 30 years old 

Another thing to consider is that back then there were far more snowfall totals reported after the snow has ended.  Now it is more of a running total during a storm with updates every 2-3 hours.  That leads to more accurate snow totals than back then.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

We can all eat figgy pudding while anxiously awaiting the PBP at the picnic tables. Merry Christmas to all!

Tens of thousands of vacationers locals vital to local economies will definitely be watching. No one cares if it snows in flat lands

[CoastalWx]

It looks awful up north. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tens of thousands of vacationers locals vital to local economies will definitely be watching. No one cares if it snows in flat lands

Speaking in terms specifically wrt this sub forum

[CoastalWx]

Maybe VT escapes with least impacts? Maine is soaked with rain as it stands now. 

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe VT escapes with least impacts? Maine is soaked with rain as it stands now. 

Hopefully the picnic tables do OK

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe VT escapes with least impacts? Maine is soaked with rain as it stands now. 

I think it could trend pretty decent for them in a SWFE sort of manner if they get another tick today. But can’t afford any regressions. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it could trend pretty decent for them in a SWFE sort of manner if they get another tick today. But can’t afford any regressions. 

I hope, because that’s inches of rain. Sucks.

[UnitedWx]

24 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Another thing to consider is that back then there were far more snowfall totals reported after the snow has ended.  Now it is more of a running total during a storm with updates every 2-3 hours.  That leads to more accurate snow totals than back then.

True but I don't think it really makes a huge difference in seasonal totals most years. Although I have always believed that the old method was more indicative of what we really see on the ground. I think this method of measuring on a snowboard every few hours is kind of fake if you ask me.

[ineedsnow]

Would like to add to the pack here but looks like the grinch wants to make his annual appearance.. 

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Speaking in terms specifically wrt this sub forum

Oh well we aren't a sne sub forum and not a specific sne thread but I get it.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

True but I don't think it really makes a huge difference in seasonal totals most years. Although I have always believed that the old method was more indicative of what we really see on the ground. I think this method of measuring on a snowboard every few hours is kind of fake if you ask me.

It doesn’t make a big difference. It maybe makes a difference on the seasonal total of a couple inches here and there. The reason is because it really only matters a lot in the big double digit storms which don’t happen that frequently. Compaction rate is sort of an exponential function. So some of those big dog totals may have been higher if measured every 6 hours. 
 

However, most first order sites were already doing 6 hourly measurements even in the 1960s/1970s. 

[CoastalWx]

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. 

I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4”  But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

[CoastalWx]

Next week is funny. That s/w trough loops down into the CONUS and then loops back up. I think I made a post about that a week ago when one of the op runs showed a cutter. It just comes right down and then right back up lol. 

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. 

I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4”  But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

Biggest issue is when stations measure only at 12z and you had a snow to rain situation the day prior. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Biggest issue is when stations measure only at 12z and you had a snow to rain situation the day prior. 

Yeah some just don’t catch that. I’ve seen that too. 
I was more arguing that the 6hr method imo is the more truthful way to gauge snowfalls.

[HoarfrostHubb]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Would like to add to the pack here but looks like the grinch wants to make his annual appearance.. 

enjoy the scenery while we can.  Back to brown lawns and sticks soon.  
 

 

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some just don’t catch that. I’ve seen that too. 
I was more arguing that the 6hr method imo is the more truthful way to gauge snowfalls.

Yeah agreed for sure. And also nice when places report 12z snow depth. Can get a nice gauge there.