"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

At this range I wouldn't rule anything out, but for now I'd just like to mitigate damage in ski country.

It's one truly is a done deal. It's not coming back in any way shape or form. Now for separate storm followed on its heels by some odd chance, that would be a different story. But this particular storm. It is absolutely 100% not for the Northeast

[Dan76]

Where forky?

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's one truly is a done deal. It's not coming back in any way shape or form. Now for separate storm followed on its heels by some odd chance, that would be a different story. But this particular storm. It is absolutely 100% not for the Northeast

It’s a volatile pattern for the model accuracy in the medium to long range. Things don’t look good but I wouldn’t give up for another 48 hours or so if your hope is for a colder snowier outcomes.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That was a hideous gfs run start to finish. winding up another massive cutter going through Chicago just after new years 

[CoastalWx]

Euro I think may be “less” cutterish….if that makes any sense? Whatever that will mean lol.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

One of the worst December patterns in a long long time

It was supposed to be a great pattern with a negative AO , negative NAO and negative EPO.

No model should go out past 200 hours anymore 

[CoastalWx]

-EPO is still cutter risk. Not sure why some always think it’s so good. You want to prevent cutters? Get a ridge over the west coast/Rockies.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

-EPO is still cutter risk. Not sure why some always think it’s so good. You want to prevent cutters? Get a ridge over the west coast/Rockies.

Easier said than done

 

[tamarack]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This as is kind of reminds me OF an '80s storm....  

At least serviceable cold --> rain --> cold     There were several years there in that decade where it was just easier to give in an assume that's what would happen.  

What's interesting also, is that there were several exceptionally deep powerful bombs that just nicked the Cape but missed otherwise that decade... It was like there was this diverter in the field sending everything W or S ... seldom through the middle.   But, there were some.  We had pretty spectacular positive bust event in early February of 1987 I think it was...  Supposed to be 1-3" ending as light rain, and we got 10" in 4 hours with thunder.  Then there was the 'ZYSYGY' storm in '86 I think it was... that dumped 20" over interior eastern Mass. 

Here and now... I wonder if 'model magnification' may be overdoing this thing some.  I've wondered that from the beginning.  We don't need 962 mb lows to answer for a 'big signal' ... A 978 mb low over NYS will do just fine to standardize butt bang NE out of a white holiday, and still be sufficiently large to account for the D(+PNA) --> PNAP.  

This is also a situation where the signal is very real... but whether it affects this New England region or Michigan is coming down to the fact that the PNAP is biased W.   The ridge has gone back W or is going W, depending on which guidance, and so the wave comes in and rails SE too early to be an EC expression. That's it.  I suppose it can change.  Also, if the flow proves less amplified overall, you may gain some longitude back for just being a flatter significant system over one that takes a larger parabolic dive.

 

IIRC, that ZYZYGY (spelling optional) storm was Jan 2-3, 1987.  It was odd in that snow reached PWM about 4 AM but didn't get to AUG until after noon.  Then it went from 1st flakes to white wall - 1/8 mi vis - in less than 60 seconds.  2nd biggest snowfall in our 13 winters in Gardiner and first of 5 storms that month, for 49" total.

[dryslot]

Would be a perfect time for a Scooter shit streak to appear.

[WeatherX]

Euro just jams it right in with gritted teeth.


.

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Would be a perfect time for a Scooter shit streak to appear.

Don’t worry. It will reappear to kick something OTS at some point this winter. 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

-EPO is still cutter risk. Not sure why some always think it’s so good. You want to prevent cutters? Get a ridge over the west coast/Rockies.

West coast ridge is more important than anything else 

[Snowcrazed71]

This storm is going somewhere through Indiana. If anyone had it have hoped of this coming back east... This is done. 

Still fun to talk about if we want to talk about the Midwest. Sounds like it's going to be a good storm for them as far as a winter storm. For us, rain and looks like some good wind.

[CoastalWx]

Still massive cutter

[dryslot]

Man the life boats.

[qg_omega]

Can someone change this ridiculous thread title

[wokeupthisam]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can someone change this ridiculous thread title

Is it too soon to be waxing nostalgic about the original title?

[dryslot]

Just ducky.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

13 years is a long time even with the crappy odds here. That isn’t even debatable.

It's not that long relative to 20% odds, so stop debating 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

-EPO is still cutter risk. Not sure why some always think it’s so good. You want to prevent cutters? Get a ridge over the west coast/Rockies.

Just get me an el nino. Done with this 12 year la nina

[dryslot]

I don't see any way this could improve going forward either.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ski resort slopes turned to apple sauce then freezing 

[SnoSki14]

That's a beastly cutter too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't see any way this could improve going forward either.

If I were you.. I’d spend as much time as I could outside enjoying the snow the next couple days . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ski resort slopes turned to apple sauce then freezing 

I'm glad everyone gets porked. I'm tired of being violated by myself.

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, radarman said:

At this range I wouldn't rule anything out, but for now I'd just like to mitigate damage in ski country.

Yeah esp after ski country just got an awesome base builder. Getting a screamer would suck. 
 

At least powderfreak can host his annul Xmas skimming party. 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I were you.. I’d spend as much time as I could outside enjoying the snow the next couple days . 

500mb looks good Day 10 to 15, 10 to 15 days ago

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can someone change this ridiculous thread title

You were right about this horrible pattern

1st time ever

 

Kudos 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, qg_omega said:

500mb looks good Day 10 to 15, 10 to 15 days ago

I'm sure this is right where Brooklyn wants it at day 6