"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Kitz Craver]

I have fully bathed in the warm waters of regression. Don’t get me wrong, pants down as soon as we lock into something that looks legit. But we have had so many grinch storms and bare ground around the holidays it’s becoming the norm. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that very narrow scope constitute being "skunked "? What does he average, 1-2 white Xmas/decade??

Yeah prob about 20-25% there historically. We’ve def been getting a little unlucky recently overall with the frequency of pack annihilators in December…but nothing has been too ridiculous. 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

Never say Never.  Think Patriots down 28-3 to Atlanta in SB LI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob about 20-25% there historically. We’ve def been getting a little unlucky recently overall with the frequency of pack annihilators in December…but nothing has been too ridiculous. 

Yea, the December misfortune has been on a regional level, though. 

[Chris12WX]

What if we just moved the start of meteorological winter to January 1? That should solve a lot of issues.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can I have a taste of that? More of mother nature's ass, instead?

Cool...

For him? Yes. He is getting it.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

What if we just moved the start of meteorological winter to January 1? That should solve a lot of issues.

This should happen

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 years is a long time even with the crappy odds here. That isn’t even debatable.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

13 years is a long time even with the crappy odds here. That isn’t even debatable.

Taste it

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

13 years is a long time even with the crappy odds here. That isn’t even debatable.

I'm sorry, missing out on a white Christmas doesn't sit in the same room as having 4 shitty winters in a row.  Not close.  One day vs 4 months.  So given the importance, let's give that day a month's worth.  You still are overdoing the bitching.  But i love you and remember you snowblowing 30+ last winter.

[cleetussnow]

Lets see what Dr. Nick says in an hour.  
 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It may be more an issue that initial coastal wave is impacting the entire thing, several people here pointed that out yesterday, if you're in Chicago or Detroit and want snow you'd most definitely be worried about that system because that can wreck this event for them...I still think the best case scenario though is this is a NRN or CNTRL NE event, even BDL/PVD may have a hard time getting this to come back enough for notable snow

The antecedent airmass up here is good and the snow cover will help so it might not be a disaster 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

The antecedent airmass up here is good and the snow cover will help so it might not be a disaster 

Tell that to Xmas Eve 2020

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

 

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'm sorry, missing out on a white Christmas doesn't sit in the same room as having 4 shitty winters in a row.  Not close.  One day vs 4 months.  So given the importance, let's give that day a month's worth.  You still are overdoing the bitching.  But i love you and remember you snowblowing 30+ last winter.

LOL no argument from me. He’s had it worse. But I am frustrated with the lack of snow around Christmas despite the overall very good run here 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tell that to Xmas Eve 2020

I went from 28” to river flowing down my driveway digging rivulets in 7 days

[qg_omega]

When is the pattern change, 10 days away?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s see what gfs cooks up 

Interested to see if that lead Disturbance moving north from SE coast stays on modeling 

[Damage In Tolland]

This likely will be the cut and bleed run.

[weathafella]

And now I can’t go to VT as I’ve rebounded from paxlovid treatment and now have mild symptoms but testing strongly positive.   Pisses me off but at least the rebound seems much milder vs when I first got it 10 days ago-more like a run of the mill cold.   

[CoastalWx]

This one is cutting on gfs. Let’s get 70mph srlys as a compromise. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one is cutting on gfs. Let’s get 70mph srlys as a compromise. 

Yeah this is gonna be a screamer. 

[ROOSTA]

Regardless of what transpires. A huge letdown for many, no doubt. 
It's a "tracker" a huge storm at that.
There are things that can be controlled, weather is not one of them.
Attitude toward emotional involvement surely can be controlled and tempered knowing there is always another chance.
As a hobbyist, serious business for sure, I try to keep it fun.
NEXT...   

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully Brooklyn 99 will provide animations for this run and say we take this at day 6 

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

When is the pattern change, 10 days away?

Got anything positive or constructive to say? Let us know when you do. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully Brooklyn 99 will provide animations for this run and say we take this at day 6 

lmao I try to contribute and add value and this is what I get? thanks

[SnoSki14]

Just give me a screamer at this point 70mph gusts. 50+ degree temp drops

[ORH_wxman]

GFS does try and thump on the front side. But it will get washed away. 

[wx2fish]

Still gonna be a pretty solid front ender with the high position, but its gonn be followed by a screamer 

[RI Rob]

May pass on going to the Christmas Eve Pats game..

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao I try to contribute and add value and this is what I get? thanks

Lol bro. Joking around . You know how we roll here. What else is left after this debacle