"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With Scooter in full on melt mode this morning.. this may have a chance. Whenever he gets like this.. history tells us we have a chance. 

No melt, it is what it is. At least stein is happy with the qpf.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s also important to note that even the 3 “best” solutions from those models are not snow events 

GFS was a lot of snow on the front end…esp interior. Your area was def worse though. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

Improvements 

Euro is going to fold bad

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s also important to note that even the 3 “best” solutions from those models are not snow events 

We’ve changed our floor. It’s no longer 18+…it’s now just flakes to save the Christmas spirit.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Improvements 

Euro is going to fold bad

So Cleveland still has a chance?

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We still watch.  Could still drop appreciable snow, even if messy.

 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was a lot of snow on the front end…esp interior. Your area was def worse though. 

Yet I get a weenie emoji.  It's a messy storm most likely but the antecedent airmass is still legit.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

Gotta love the 944 low off the Delmarva 

[CoastalWx]

Taste the regression @TauntonBlizzard2013

[tim123]

So do 06 euro move east more?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

So do 06 euro move east more?

Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the 944 low off the Delmarva 

Gefs like 

[MJO812]

Maybe the GFS is right with the fast flow . That's what usually happens in La Nina winters , not wrapped up bombs

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe the GFS is right with the fast flow . That's what usually happens in La Nina winters , not wrapped up bombs

 

It may be more an issue that initial coastal wave is impacting the entire thing, several people here pointed that out yesterday, if you're in Chicago or Detroit and want snow you'd most definitely be worried about that system because that can wreck this event for them...I still think the best case scenario though is this is a NRN or CNTRL NE event, even BDL/PVD may have a hard time getting this to come back enough for notable snow

[Kitz Craver]

Watch this end up a glorified FROPA. That’d be the tits. 

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

 

Chicago, Cleveland, or Albany--all sounds like rain to me.

[CoastalWx]

At least it’s a Phil approved screaming sou’easter on the euro. If snow can’t accumulate on the ground, hopefully trees will. 

[alex]

35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

Random question - I have a subscription to weathermodels.com but where do you find this map??? Can’t find it anywhere

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least it’s a Phil approved screaming sou’easter on the euro. If snow can’t accumulate on the ground, hopefully trees will. 

Phil bringing the boat and chainsaw for Christmas after the Grinch does its work  

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, alex said:

Random question - I have a subscription to weathermodels.com but where do you find this map??? Can’t find it anywhere

Animator—>EPS Cyclones—>ENS mean mslp and lows

[moneypitmike]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

Tip's storm needs a correction vector of about 800 miles on the Euro.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let me channel Tauntonblizz13

The 6z gfs at least has a southerly wind and Rainer New Year’s Eve And we will prob lock in a great pattern for SNE in mid April 

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM is still staying in the GFS at 48h with the western TPV. 
 

Not worth much yet until big boys show something. But the Kotite Jets aren’t folding yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Taste the regression @TauntonBlizzard2013

Can I have a taste of that? More of mother nature's ass, instead?

Cool...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM is still staying in the GFS at 48h with the western TPV. 
 

Not worth much yet until big boys show something. But the Kotite Jets aren’t folding yet. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's safe to say the epic December train has careened off of the cliff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

You have been anything but skunked lol 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have been anything but skunked lol 

Yeah he was trying to lump himself in as “unlucky”….lol. I guess for the very narrow scope of white Xmas he has been but overall he’s been about the luckiest spot compared to climo in SNE the past decade. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

The shore there where you are is not a snowy area and certainly not a white Xmas area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he was trying to lump himself in as “unlucky”….lol. I guess for the very narrow scope of white Xmas he has been but overall he’s been about the luckiest spot compared to climo in SNE the past decade. 

Does that very narrow scope constitute being "skunked "? What does he average, 1-2 white Xmas/decade??