"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Baroclinic Zone]

We still watch.  Could still drop appreciable snow, even if messy.

[Chris12WX]

Cleveland superbomb still on the table. 

[Damage In Tolland]

When does the GFS catch on to the cutter? My guess is the 12z run takes it west of apps 

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'd probably be better off losing the PNA ridge all together if it isn't going to shift east. It acts to trigger phasing further west.

Yes. It would prob be an overrunning or SWFE if we sent the whole thing in flatter and didn’t allow it to dig for oil in the plains. 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When does the GFS catch on to the cutter? My guess is the 12z run takes it west of apps 

[Kitz Craver]

Bizarre at the surface with 06z GFS, I’d wait till 12z before everyone cooks their morning toast and jam in the bath tub. 

[moneypitmike]

I'm tired of tracking rainstorms.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm tired of tracking rainstorms.

Plenty more to track 

[moneypitmike]

The sun's breaking through now so it can quickly kill the light coating of snow I managed from yesterday's rainstorm.

[moneypitmike]

Can someone ask Tip to stop creating threads 10 days before events?  Kiss of death.  A single 500-word post in the dis/obs thread will suffice.

[Kitz Craver]

That most recent buckshot look to the ens says we are still in the game. I’d say end of the third quarter down 10 type vibe. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That most recent buckshot look to the ens says we are still in the game. I’d say end of the third quarter down 10 type vibe. 

28-3 with Russell Wilson as your QB. Good luck. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

TB13 loves to piss on the snow parade

Yea and the fact he was born in 2013 makes it even more popcorn worthy. 

[MJO812]

East trend on the eps ? Interior New England definitely in the game .

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

28-3 with Russell Wilson as your QB. Good luck. 

So your saying GMEN VS PHILLY kinda look, Lol…

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, MJO812 said:

East trend on the eps ? Interior New England definitely in the game .

Donuts?

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting how little the overnight various sources did to resolve differences among the various sources. 

For starters, at just 156 hours (~) lead left to go before amplitude time, to see the entire GEFs suite that much different than the EPS ...ranging from mean and spreads astride the EC, to full southerly blown Lakes cutter, not personally sure that's very normal.  156 hours is right on the cusp of 'not so far out there' vs acceptable variance so.  

Whether one gets the model cinema and d-drip they are looking for out of these runs today ( lol ), there will certainly be some value in the mystery in its own rights.  

The operational runs more than less are within their ensemble clusters. No help there.  

GFS has ICON model on it's side - but having read how/why the ICON model got its name/technology therein, I'm not sure that's just a coincidence.  No help there.

This is a great chess match.  On one side... we snow --> mix --> rain --> snow, windy coastal bomb that rides either just west of the I-95 corridor, or if the ~ 1/3 of the GEFs seaward members are right ... a humdinger with more snow rides east of that track.   On the other side, the air mass out ahead turns around and bodily moves out with no cryo entry...it just sort of matures from whatever we deal with after today's morass, into tea-time with Grinch. 

There will be a winner, and a loser - ....  lol,  ah HA!  the NAVGEM splits the difference almost precisely looking at the mass-field in and around the event.  That's amost comical, that the course of lesser regret in this situation, the compromise, is right where that particular model depicts its synoptic evolution.   Again...given to that model's history and the fact that it's not really supposed to be used for this sort of analysis over land ( per it's creators).  No help there.  

All the while, a huge signal is still there for a event, and at least that much of this is higher confidence. 

Just some morning musings... I could almost see this devolving - though - from a big one to perhaps two more moderate events ( with upside), spread out.   The NAO is weakening it's negative grip in the numerical guide - not sure if that meets with the eye-ball test on the geopotential means/charts...  But, with a -AO/ rising PNA --> surging +PNAP, the idea of a fast flow does enter the picture.  Fast flow is less physically conducive to bigger singular events...  That may help distribute impulses more than collect them ..etc.  

From what I am seeing of the 00z Euro that really differentiates its overall handling out there is that it is sagging the western end of the SPV draped across southern Canada, into the Pac S/W as it slides by heading SE...and this induces a subsume phase, which torques up and breaks earlier across the continent.  It's really outpacing the +PNAP, or is right on top of it in space and time.  The GFS appears to keep these streams more separate, as does it's little buddy the ICON, and it's system ends up less wound up ( albeit still potent) farther east.  

[Lava Rock]

Happy holidayssssssssss
 

Wouldn't expect any less. Grinch won't be denied

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When does the GFS catch on to the cutter? My guess is the 12z run takes it west of apps 

Seems early

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Donuts?

Not today

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Plenty more to track 

Definitely 

Euro will fold 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

Euro will fold 

Enjoy the rain 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

Euro will fold 

I do enjoy someone making a bold hedge. As long it’s not because the snow goggles are on though. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There will be a winner, and a loser - ....  lol,  ah HA!  the NAVGEM splits the difference almost precisely looking at the mass-field in and around the event.

Bad news for the GFS

I do think you make a valid point though, how often have we seen destructive interference kick a would-be bomb out east leading up to go time? Could use some of that here.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS/Icon/NAM vs the rest. 
 

Kind of feels like the Rich Kotite Jets facing the 1990s Cowboys. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS/Icon/NAM vs the rest. 
 

Kind of feels like the Rich Kotite Jets facing the 1990s Cowboys. 

It’s also important to note that even the 3 “best” solutions from those models are not snow events 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS/Icon/NAM vs the rest. 
 

Kind of feels like the Rich Kotite Jets facing the 1990s Cowboys. 

The GIN models. 

fitting

[Damage In Tolland]

With Scooter in full on melt mode this morning.. this may have a chance. Whenever he gets like this.. history tells us we have a chance. 

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW

 

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That most recent buckshot look to the ens says we are still in the game. I’d say end of the third quarter down 10 type vibe.