"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS has less of a W lean, it appears

Looks awesome 

[tim123]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

There is a lot of uncertainty with the low location so far with the 0z runs. The Gfs has a low over SNE, Ukie with a low over Chicago, Icon with a low over Buffalo, and the Canadian with a low over Wisconsin. 

Icon had low over near Watertown not buffalo

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the angst over a 70 mile difference between rain and snow at day 7 is quite silly, too

I feel like people just have to take a couple days and let this play out. we'll know what's up by Monday, most likely

It's not silly within the context of the run...he's reacting to it..and considering how the consensus has trended today, the angst is justified. Why don't you piss off with the judgement BS because it's not needed. Stick to the model analysis, which you excel at.

[weathafella]

Still seems to be a lot of spread between deep cutters and off shore solutions on GEFS.  Anyway, this is still 6 days away so I'm not stressing over it.  If Monday evening we're cutting, I'm running.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My guess is the gfs had a few too many edibles. Everything else seems to be locked in on Midwest cutter.

Let's just have it cut W of Wisconsin and get some warm breezy Fropa showers before the temps' crash. Don't need pouring rain or high winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Still seems to be a lot of spread between deep cutters and off shore solutions on GEFS.  Anyway, this is still 6 days away so I'm not stressing over it.  If Monday evening we're cutting, I'm running.  

I think tomorrow is crucial given the dichotomous nature of guidance at this particular juncture. 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Icon had low over near Watertown not buffalo

So channeling my best George….well excuuuuse me!

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not silly within the context of the run...he's reacting to it..and considering how the consensus has trended today, the angst is justified. Why don't you piss off with the judgement BS because it's not needed. Stick to the model analysis, which you excel at.

sorry… did not mean to come off as judgemental. just want everyone to keep a level head as much as possible

this is going to be a doozy to track and if one invests too much emotionally, it’s going to be a bad time. trust me, I have prepared for the GFS to have egg on its face and for everyone to rain… I would probably rage a bit too

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think tomorrow is crucial given the dichotomous nature of guidance at this particular juncture. 

Well for me I’m getting ready to go to VT Sunday so I put Monday as my day because I’ll actually be able to pay attention.  Long winter ahead.

[brooklynwx99]

the GEFS mean snowfall is another improvement from 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sorry… did not mean to come off as judgemental. just want everyone to keep a level head as much as possible

this is going to be a doozy to track and if one invests too much emotionally, it’s going to be a bad time. trust me, I have prepared for the GFS to have egg on its face and for everyone to rain… I would probably rage a bit too

He's like I am...knows his stuff, but vents pretty liberally. I totally get what you mean, and there are some that need that voice of reason, but the vets know the limits of the range etc...just emotionally invested..especially right at the holiday.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Still seems to be a lot of spread between deep cutters and off shore solutions on GEFS.  Anyway, this is still 6 days away so I'm not stressing over it.  If Monday evening we're cutting, I'm running.  

Crazy deep for Ens

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's like I am...knows his stuff, but vents pretty liberally. I totally get what you mean, and there are some that need that voice of reason, but the vets know the limits of the range etc...just emotionally invested..especially right at the holiday.

thanks for understanding. i’ll refrain from now on - unless it’s egregious

hahaha 

I really don’t know what to think here. I still think everything is on the table. the foreign models do give me pause but the GFS suite is holding strong and other models are ticking. the GEFS is insane

this is going to be a biggggg weekend

[weathafella]

I"m looking at AirBnb places in Malaga (Spain).  Get away from this mayhem.  Supposedly lots of expats-could be a fun interlude.  Wintering here is becoming mind numbing frustration.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, weathafella said:

I"m looking at AirBnb places in Malaga (Spain).  Get away from this mayhem.  Supposedly lots of expats-could be a fun interlude.  Wintering here is becoming mind numbing frustration.

My niece and her boyfriend just got back from Spain and said it was amazing.  Beautiful weather, great food and super laid back, wonderful people in the countryside. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

thanks for understanding. i’ll refrain from now on - unless it’s egregious

hahaha 

I really don’t know what to think here. I still think everything is on the table. the foreign models do give me pause but the GFS suite is holding strong and other models are ticking. the GEFS is insane

this is going to be a biggggg weekend

The whining gets annoying..I get it...nothing wrong with telling us to shut it every now and again. But what is also annoying is trying to imply that the run didn't blow back east when it clearly did lol

Yea, tomorrow is when I make up my mind...though I won't touch a First Call until Monday or Tuesday, so..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs with a cluster just se of AC. 

[George001]

Euro time, anyone want to guess where it’s gonna go? I’m thinking we see a low in Nebraska tonight, but could see it in Wisconsin or Chicago as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Euro time, anyone want to guess where it’s gonna go? I’m thinking we see a low in Nebraska tonight, but could see it in Wisconsin or Chicago as well.

My guess is in PA.

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Euro time, anyone want to guess where it’s gonna go? I’m thinking we see a low in Nebraska tonight, but could see it in Wisconsin or Chicago as well.

Just east of Chicago

[tim123]

942 over lake of the woods MN. 100 degrees in boston.

[George001]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is in PA.

I know that would still be rain, but I’d be happy with that since it’s a step in the right direction. I hope my initial thoughts that it will go more west is wrong.

[brooklynwx99]

the ECMWF has made a definite shift towards the GFS in its handling of the AK vort

much more amplified 

[George001]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF has made a definite shift towards the GFS in its handling of the AK vort

much more amplified 

Damn that’s a big shift

[tim123]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Damn that’s a big shift

Thats what she said. Oh wait that was shaft. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It doesn’t matter…it will cut.

[Thunderblizzard]

I'm guessing it will cut again based off the look at hour 114... nothing like the GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Trough digging SW into the rockies lol

[MuddyWx]

Yea not much different. Gonna dig way too far west to have a chance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trough digging SW into the rockies lol

Thank god the AK SW amped up