"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC holding to its cutter.

Barely moved at all from previous run, which is bizarre in itself.

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes she is while I'm looking at the models 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you think the GFS should be further west?

Not necessarily. That lead wave in effect “steals” dynamics away so the real low is kept weaker than it could otherwise be … but that limits the amount of cyclogen feedback on height falls lending to keeping the entire structure from closing. In total this keeps everything open and sheers the low pressure out along the gradient of the isohypsis aloft and that’s why it looks that way with that weird fist. Yeah taking on low pressure below 960 right over the chain of the white mountains is a little odd

[weathafella]

CMC looks like a strong fropa.

[Thunderblizzard]

UKMET also still cuts.

[weathafella]

Wolfie hibernating with the bears?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

after the hellacious front end thump? that's like 8" in 6 hours for most

That could be 12" in 6 hours for someone in SNE/CNE

[brooklynwx99]

hilarious when comparing to the 18z EPS. like what the fuck

it's a wholesale synoptic feature that just isn't there on the EPS at 5 days out! crazy

one of these models is going to be really, really, really wrong

[MJO812]

Ukie is a big cutter 

[MuddyWx]

gfs vs everything else continues

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie is a big cutter 

How far W?

[Typhoon Tip]

Wouldn’t be shocked if this whole thing just turns into a modern event by virtue of moving too fast. Maybe two of them around this time, and again in the 26th to the 30th. 

This sucker’s movin right along in the guidance lately no matter what it does

[George001]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is a big cutter 

Where is the low location? 

[MJO812]

Just now, George001 said:

Where is the low location? 

Chicago

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

How far W?

Chicago

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Most of forum doesn’t equate to most of the population. 

Well, by the same token its silly to respond to someone's angst over a run that blows for their BY with description of how it looks 70 miles west. Clearly it's fine for you and sucks for us...not that complicated. Brooklyn should have just let him be.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Chicago

Yeah, that would be bad.

[tim123]

Icon was in gfs camp tonight 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, that would be bad.

My guess is the gfs had a few too many edibles. Everything else seems to be locked in on Midwest cutter.

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is most of the forum by population. 

 Ct

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Icon was in gfs camp tonight 

still runs it up central NY

[MJO812]

Geps is a big cutter

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, by the same token its silly to respond to someone's angst over a run that blows for their BY with description of how it looks 70 miles west. Clearly it's fine for you and sucks for us...not that complicated. Brooklyn should have just let him be.

 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 Ct

 

[George001]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My guess is the gfs had a few too many edibles. Everything else seems to be locked in on Midwest cutter.

I hope you are wrong but I agree with this. Honestly, I think the Euro is going to come west even more tonight. Low in Nebraska.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Barely moved at all from previous run, which is bizarre in itself.

It was pretty consistent with the east coast blizzard for a while, too.

[George001]

There is a lot of uncertainty with the low location so far with the 0z runs. The Gfs has a low over SNE, Ukie with a low over Chicago, Icon with a low over Buffalo, and the Canadian with a low over Wisconsin. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Icon was in gfs camp tonight 

That’s the band camp…

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, by the same token its silly to respond to someone's angst over a run that blows for their BY with description of how it looks 70 miles west. Clearly it's fine for you and sucks for us...not that complicated. Brooklyn should have just let him be.

the angst over a 70 mile difference between rain and snow at day 7 is quite silly, too

I feel like people just have to take a couple days and let this play out. we'll know what's up by Monday, most likely

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS has less of a W lean, it appears

[weathafella]

It feels like it should be later than 12/16 given how much discussion there has been in general this winter.