"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[George001]

Alright major changes on the icon are nice to see, but I’d like to see the Navy on board before I really get excited. 

[brooklynwx99]

looks like the GFS might actually have the right idea here. not budging from its idea at 18z at all

if anything, the TPV lobe is a touch stronger

[Chris12WX]

11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Still going to cut but that’s a HUGE difference at the surface and aloft vs 12z.  It’s a positive trend for sure.

Small reminder that a single model run doesn’t make a trend. I was once told with respect to modeling:

Once is an aberration

twice is a coincidence 

three times is a trend

[Typhoon Tip]

This ICON model looks nuts!

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s just ahead of the GFS by probably two or three days …around DAY6 and it’s really got something historic lined up on the eastern seaboard again

[Juliancolton]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like the GFS might actually have the right idea here. not budging from its idea at 18z at all

if anything, the TPV lobe is a touch stronger

The Gulf of Alaska shortwave is quite a bit flatter too, more reminiscent of yesterday's big runs.

[MJO812]

Gfs has some drastic changes from last run

Vort is stronger coming down from Canada and everything is slower. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s just ahead of the GFS by probably two or three days …around DAY6 and it’s really got something historic lined up on the eastern seaboard again

It goes over EPA and hooks nw into Upstate NY.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has some drastic changes from last run

Vort is stronger coming down from Canada and everything is slower. 

Preparing to unzip in the cruiser?

[George001]

I have no idea if the shift is going to be good or bad, but yeah that was a massive shift on the gfs with the vort in Alaska. The low will likely move 500+ miles on this run.

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Preparing to unzip in the cruiser?

I'm in bed naked 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS looks amazing

weaker initial S/W and the TPV is much stronger, which will provide more confluence

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It goes over EPA and hooks nw into Upstate NY.

That whole surface evolution is premature for what’s going on aloft… I’ve noticed that with some of these models that are further east with everything they’re so sensitive to the baroclinicity that’s like a powder keg that they’re spinning up lows prematurely

[MJO812]

Cmc is still a cutter based off the 1890 maps

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm in bed naked 

His wife is sleeping soundly with no idea what’s going on beside her. 

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc is still a cutter based off the 1890 maps

Yep, I see a low in Wisconsin. That’s too bad I was hoping to see it get on board.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That whole surface evolution is premature for what’s going on aloft… I’ve noticed that with some of these models that are further east with everything they’re so sensitive to the baroclinicity that’s like a powder keg that they’re spinning up lows prematurely

Interesting. 

[MJO812]

Just now, mreaves said:

His wife is sleeping soundly with no idea what’s going on beside her. 

Yes she is while I'm looking at the models 

[78Blizzard]

The trough out west seems more positive tilted than at 18z.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I'm up to 126.  That vortex over James Bay is gonna make it tough to cut.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes she is while I'm looking at the models 

Every married men does.

[dryslot]

Folks climbing back down of the ledge.

[78Blizzard]

Digging much less this time, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The trough out west seems more positive tilted than at 18z.

It’s a little weaker but it’s actually probably better for those they want this to perform differently locally… In fact it’s at 144 and looks like it’s got a pretty good amount of wind Max catching up with it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It looks like it’s keying in more on the initial sw along the EC. 

[MJO812]

2 waves on gfs

Interior is going to like this 

[CT Rain]

That's a weird evolution lol

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Folks climbing back down of the ledge.

Until the Ukie and Euro lol

[dryslot]

Dual structured, Second wave will be east along the baroclinic zone.

[weathafella]

Bizarre.  Beautiful track and the cold is gone?