"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

18z euro handled the TPV similarly to 12z through 90h, end result probably would have been similar. and still way different than the GFS

Eps at 144 (18z/16) showed the h5 trof going negative pretty far west.  But it also kind of hinted at a little cad.  Swfe maybe our salvation or at least consolation prize.

[MuddyWx]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So you don't actually have the information?

It's discussed a bit here with the GFS a couple of years ago, with an issue they are trying to correct with the upgrades - "progressive bias with synoptic scale systems." https://www.cwb.gov.tw/Data/climate/Info/seminars/20210615_17_4th_TWPGFSDW/1-1_20210615_Fanglin_Yang.pdf

There's probably more stuff out there, but the progressive / SE bias has been noted with a lot of these systems the past few years on here

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

It's discussed a bit here with the GFS a couple of years ago, with an issue they are trying to correct with the upgrades - "progressive bias with synoptic scale systems." https://www.cwb.gov.tw/Data/climate/Info/seminars/20210615_17_4th_TWPGFSDW/1-1_20210615_Fanglin_Yang.pdf

There's probably more stuff out there, but the progressive / SE bias has been noted with a lot of these systems the past few years on here

We tried to tell him . We’ve got ourselves an apps runner 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z runs starting soon !

The nyc arrest rate will spike tonight. 

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The nyc arrest rate will spike tonight. 

I'm off

O well

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off

O well

Whatever you need to release your frustration on, keep it close by. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The nyc arrest rate will spike tonight. 

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off

O well

Going to be a slow night at the doughnut shop i guess.

[kdxken]

Not a slam dunk anymore. The odds are narrowing. We got ourselves a game.

[Snowcrazed71]

So I watched Bernie reyno on Twitter about 20 minutes ago. Pretty informative. I would say. He does feel that the models will probably swing east again, but nothing off the coast. At least that's what he thinks. As of now. He feels like it'll drive up somewhere between Detroit and maybe Pittsburgh. So I have succumbed to the fact that we will not be getting snowstorm here on the east coast at the end of next week. I did say this before, if it was going to happen on Christmas Eve and I don't want it to happen at all. My folks are here from Florida. Come and my dad's getting older and I rather spend it with my entire family and have it canceled because of a big snowstorm. I can't get these memories back with my parents, but I know I'll get more snow storms. Onward and upward as they say.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What ridge / trough changes transpired in the last day to make it likely this thing is cutting .  

[tim123]

Guess icon got stuck in snow in Duluth 

[Thunderblizzard]

ICON looks wildly different at hour 105... TPV much further ahead and south and the main vort seems to be lagging.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Big change on the icon at h5 fwiw. At least it’s something.

[Heisy]

Uh, 00z icon joining GFS camp with TPV handling. I did not expect this at all


.

[Heisy]

I will also add that the 00z NAM also in GFS camp fwiw


.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried to tell him . We’ve got ourselves an apps runner 

I don’t think this is the whole story.  Yes gfs has a known progressive bias but your initial reaction states “severe SE bias”. That is very strong wording and a lot of that severity has been fixed.  You factor every model bias before tossing out of hand if you want to more than emotionally forecast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think this is the whole story.  Yes gfs has a known progressive bias but your initial reaction states “severe SE bias”. That is very strong wording and a lot of that severity has been fixed.  You factor every model bias before tossing out of hand if you want to more than emotionally forecast.

He fell asleep drunk an hour ago.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

ICON looks wildly different at hour 105... TPV much further ahead and south and the main vort seems to be lagging.

Unfortunately it’s only enough to take it over PA and not IL but hey if it could sling that far east, maybe the others do the same.

[Sn0waddict]

Still going to cut but that’s a HUGE difference at the surface and aloft vs 12z.  It’s a positive trend for sure.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He fell asleep drunk an hour ago.

Lol…maybe after his morning run at 5am he’ll retort while waiting 5 hours for me to wake up….

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big change on the icon at h5 fwiw. At least it’s something.

Model flopping continues...probably need to give it another 24 to 36 hrs to really get an idea of what direction this is headed...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

Lol…maybe after his morning run at 5am he’ll retort while waiting 5 hours for me to wake up….

When you’re funneling IPA’s all day, it’s tough to be awake past 9pm. 

[brooklynwx99]

looks like the GFS has fused the two S/Ws. really interesting. no idea where this will go, but I can assure that it won't be like the ECMWF in its evolution

[Typhoon Tip]

You’re ICON’s an icon for a bomb … right back where it started from.  

Looks like it’s headed for a violent solution too

I’m not sure about this icon model in general by the way I’m just posting it for the muse of it

For what it’s worth the western ridge is coming bodily in this time

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Still going to cut but that’s a HUGE difference at the surface and aloft vs 12z.  It’s a positive trend for sure.

I got your how many of you feel about Bernie Rayno and how much stock you put into his forecasts, but he did say the models would come east.. But never far enough to be an east coast storm. 

[dmcginvt]

Im of the opinon that once an inside runner, always an inside runner

[George001]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

Im of the opinon that once an inside runner, always an inside runner

Eh sometimes they turn into Miller Bs

[kdxken]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

Im of the opinon that once an inside runner, always an inside runner

Nah, weather is fluid.

[Typhoon Tip]

[dmcginvt]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nah, weather is fluid.

No question its anecdotal, but Im gonna stick with it.  It keeps me sane