Henry's Weather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense. I feel like the universe wants to give you disappointment until your youthful spirit is quashed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 we will absolutely take at 7 days out 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So the GEFS with their severe SE bias are already that close in . That tells you all you need to know where this is likely going 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So the GEFS with their severe SE bias are already that close in . That tells you all you need to know where this is likely going How much is the bias? Do we have a link on that? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we will absolutely take at 7 days out Still west of 12z and 0z will be west of 18z.. GFS playing catch up with the other globals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: How much is the bias? Do we have a link on that? I am quite sure there’s data that someone here can provide. The event is at day 5.5-6.. so there’s plenty of time to correct to all other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise - The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent. That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting. The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ... Frankly, I don't know which is correct. But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance. I will also be the first to admit, ...I thought the western ridge would trend more robustly - As I've advertised, there is a whopper mode change in the PNA ... it really should deliver a +PNAP response down stream... Unfortunately, if that ridge pops as a west biased variant, that would be less useful for local winter weather enthusiasts to put it nicely... Remains to be seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. See you at 0z 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18z GEFS improved snowfall for most 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise - The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent. That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting. The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ... Frankly, I don't know which is correct. But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance. The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: See you at 0z I’m back. What I miss? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. See you at 18z eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. It's important in the sensible weather... it's just not a driver... I mean duh...if it pins over N Ontario, and say this thing stem winds early ... this becomes a 'Minnesota squeeze'. Yeah...all being unfair in this p.o.s. world ... it would be better to get a squeezer over a 1994 southerly gale, sure. What you describe is the squeeze under idea But, the ridge is what determines that S/W's trajectory in the 'dive' ...It's going to ride the ridge - that's just it. There's a complex aspect to this that I'm leaving out ...because I'm not sure other want it... But, a steep L/W over the Conus does delay the internal S/W break timing, because the curvature of the large scale offsets the PV of the trough, so it remains more open until it hits the bottom - ... blah blah. The foreign models are interestingly less PNA mode change --> +PNAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowiscomingdown Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7. This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowiscomingdown said: I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7. This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. I am going to start a lurker thread for guys like you. I am a closet lurker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 18z GEFS improved snowfall for most You heard these guys, the masters have spoken. This is not going to be a snow event. This is an inland runner and we're all going to get rain. It is set in stone. Any who think otherwise are idiots or dreamers ( jk ). Lolol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well. Gotta give credit where credit is due...THE POPE REIGNS! 1 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I am going to start a lurker thread for guys like you. I am a closet lurker. Sounds uneventful lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: Well. Gotta give credit where credit is due...THE POPE REIGNS! He was only off by 15 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He was only off by 15 degrees. You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol. He posts once every two weeks when things look like poop. When things actually look favorable it’s crickets. Strategic timing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, snowiscomingdown said: I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7. This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. Welcome, Let me be the first to initiate you............ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He posts once every two weeks when things look like poop. When things actually look favorable it’s crickets. Strategic timing. He also vanishes when he’s wrong and comes back several weeks later with a drive by post praying with his rosary that everyone forgot. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Patience grasshoppers, this pattern will get us eventually, not when we want it to, when it wants to. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z runs starting soon ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 0z runs starting soon ! Make sure your toasters plugged in and fully charged 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Make sure your toasters plugged in and fully charged Oh we're ready. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z euro handled the TPV similarly to 12z through 90h, end result probably would have been similar. and still way different than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I am quite sure there’s data that someone here can provide. The event is at day 5.5-6.. so there’s plenty of time to correct to all other guidance So you don't actually have the information? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now