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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense.

I feel like the universe wants to give you disappointment until your youthful spirit is quashed. 

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Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise -

The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... 

The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent.  That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. 

Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting.

The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ...

Frankly, I don't know which is correct.  But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance.  I will also be the first to admit, ...I thought the western ridge would trend more robustly -

As I've advertised, there is a whopper mode change in the PNA ... it really should deliver a +PNAP response down stream... Unfortunately, if that ridge pops as a west biased variant, that would be less useful for local winter weather enthusiasts to put it nicely...  Remains to be seen. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise -

The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... 

The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent.  That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. 

Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting.

The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ...

Frankly, I don't know which is correct.  But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance. 

The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. 

It's important in the sensible weather... it's just not a driver... 

I mean duh...if it pins over N Ontario, and say this thing stem winds early ... this becomes a 'Minnesota squeeze'.  

Yeah...all being unfair in this p.o.s. world ... it would be better to get a squeezer over a 1994 southerly gale, sure. What you describe is the squeeze under idea

But, the ridge is what determines that S/W's trajectory in the 'dive' ...It's going to ride the ridge - that's just it. 

There's a complex aspect to this that I'm leaving out ...because I'm not sure other want it... But, a steep L/W over the Conus does delay the internal S/W break timing, because the curvature of the large scale offsets the PV of the trough, so it remains more open until it hits the bottom - ... blah blah.  The foreign models are interestingly less PNA mode change --> +PNAP

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Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol.

He posts once every two weeks when things look like poop. When things actually look favorable it’s crickets. Strategic timing. 

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